Low.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 857 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 282342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
SERIES SHOW A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ROBUST DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THERE IS ALSO DEVELOPING
CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF SUMATRA. THE LLC IS
BROAD AND RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN THE LONE
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE THEATRE, WITH EXTENSIVE
DIVERGENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BAY OF BENGAL. THE MADDEN JULIAN
OSCILLATION THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS HAS RISEN FROM THE DEAD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ANOMALOUS
WESTERLIES ARE INCREASING ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
STEADY EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SURGED
ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA, MAKING FOR A DISCERNABLE MONSOON TROF
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF SRI LANKA TO THE NORTHWEST
TIP OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW A STEADY
INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION OF MOIST GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW. ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CLEAR AND STEADY TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT,
WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN NEAR THE 90TH
MERIDIAN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A STEADY SIGNAL INCREASE
IN THE 850 MB VORTICITY CHART. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A STEADY
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 95B WITH A STEADY DEVELOPMENT CYCLE AS
IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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