SPAC: JASPER - Remnants

[ChrisH-UK]

Cyclone Jasper, Himawari Meso Sector Visible

Source - https://col.st/CkOWi

[Hurricane2022]

Wow

An SAR pass at this time found winds of ~120 kts, a bit higher than the 21Z JTWC's estimate (115 kt)

Since then Jasper's appearance has deteriorated a little in the infrared images, I can't tell if it's the DMIN or some shear affecting it a little earlier than expected but it's still more likely that Jasper will continue to gain strength in the next few hours and perhaps can reach Category 5 status (AUS Scale) before definitively weakening.

[cycloneye]

105kt.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0118 UTC 08/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 156.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south (190 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h)
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 50 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/0600: 14.7S 156.5E: 030 (055): 105 (195): 939
+12: 08/1200: 15.0S 156.4E: 045 (080): 105 (195): 938
+18: 08/1800: 15.3S 156.2E: 055 (100): 100 (185): 944
+24: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.8E: 065 (120): 090 (165): 955
+36: 09/1200: 15.7S 155.3E: 085 (155): 075 (140): 969
+48: 10/0000: 16.1S 154.3E: 105 (200): 065 (120): 978
+60: 10/1200: 16.3S 153.1E: 125 (230): 060 (110): 982
+72: 11/0000: 16.6S 151.9E: 125 (235): 055 (100): 986
+96: 12/0000: 16.0S 150.3E: 135 (250): 055 (100): 985
+120: 13/0000: 15.9S 148.2E: 185 (340): 065 (120): 978
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has undergone a period of rapid
intensification overnight.

Current position is based on animated EIR/VIS satellite imagery, with a clear
eye discernible. Motion is towards the south.

Dvorak: Recent DTs have been in the 6.0 to 6.5 range (WMG/OW eye with
surrounding temp ranging from B to W). Eye is somewhat ragged and elongated.
MET is 6.0 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is also 6.0. Final T and CI
=6.0 based on DT. Current objective aids: ADT 127 kn, AiDT 121 kn, DPRINT 114
kn, DMINT 108 kn (at 1926 UTC), SATCON 119 kn (1926 UTC), all 1-min.

Intensity 105kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective
aids.

Structure is consistent with a 1914 UTC SAR pass.

The environment remains very favourable: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of
an upper anticyclone, in a low to moderate shear environment; and an upper
trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. CIMMS winds indicate
excellent outflow channels in southern quadrants.

The system has been tracking south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to
the east and southeast. This influence and track is likely to continue today. A
stronger steering ridge extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system
over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the
Queensland coast.

Further intensification is possible today. A category 5 system cannot be ruled
out.

Overnight and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air
entrainment should lead to a period of weakening. Some models indicate there
might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper
approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between
Cooktown and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next
week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the
Queensland coast around Cairns or Port Douglas.

There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into
the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over
whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop. Another
potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that
remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days.

[Hurricane2022]

105kt.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0118 UTC 08/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.2S
Longitude: 156.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south (190 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h)
Central Pressure: 940 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 50 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/0600: 14.7S 156.5E: 030 (055): 105 (195): 939
+12: 08/1200: 15.0S 156.4E: 045 (080): 105 (195): 938
+18: 08/1800: 15.3S 156.2E: 055 (100): 100 (185): 944
+24: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.8E: 065 (120): 090 (165): 955
+36: 09/1200: 15.7S 155.3E: 085 (155): 075 (140): 969
+48: 10/0000: 16.1S 154.3E: 105 (200): 065 (120): 978
+60: 10/1200: 16.3S 153.1E: 125 (230): 060 (110): 982
+72: 11/0000: 16.6S 151.9E: 125 (235): 055 (100): 986
+96: 12/0000: 16.0S 150.3E: 135 (250): 055 (100): 985
+120: 13/0000: 15.9S 148.2E: 185 (340): 065 (120): 978
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has undergone a period of rapid
intensification overnight.

Current position is based on animated EIR/VIS satellite imagery, with a clear
eye discernible. Motion is towards the south.

Dvorak: Recent DTs have been in the 6.0 to 6.5 range (WMG/OW eye with
surrounding temp ranging from B to W). Eye is somewhat ragged and elongated.
MET is 6.0 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is also 6.0. Final T and CI
=6.0 based on DT. Current objective aids: ADT 127 kn, AiDT 121 kn, DPRINT 114
kn, DMINT 108 kn (at 1926 UTC), SATCON 119 kn (1926 UTC), all 1-min.

Intensity 105kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective
aids.

Structure is consistent with a 1914 UTC SAR pass.

The environment remains very favourable: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of
an upper anticyclone, in a low to moderate shear environment; and an upper
trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. CIMMS winds indicate
excellent outflow channels in southern quadrants.

The system has been tracking south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to
the east and southeast. This influence and track is likely to continue today. A
stronger steering ridge extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system
over the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the
Queensland coast.

Further intensification is possible today. A category 5 system cannot be ruled
out.

Overnight and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air
entrainment should lead to a period of weakening. Some models indicate there
might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as Jasper
approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between
Cooktown and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next
week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the
Queensland coast around Cairns or Port Douglas.

There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into
the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over
whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop. Another
potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that
remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days.

https://i.imgur.com/sqlz1id.png

Down?

03P JASPER 231208 0000 14.2S 156.6E SHEM 120 937

[Cargill]

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between Cooktown and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the Queensland coast around Cairns.

I trust it doesn't hit Cairns - this is a big regional city (tourism and sugarcane) with about 170,000 and it is crammed between the sea and some quite steep mountains ... and there is essentially only 1-2 roads out - a cyclone here leaves people little room to manoeuvre.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0706 UTC 08/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.4S
Longitude: 156.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (203 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 145 knots (270 km/h)
Central Pressure: 938 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 210 nm (390 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/1200: 14.7S 156.5E: 030 (055): 105 (195): 938
+12: 08/1800: 15.0S 156.2E: 045 (080): 100 (185): 944
+18: 09/0000: 15.2S 155.9E: 050 (095): 090 (165): 955
+24: 09/0600: 15.4S 155.7E: 060 (110): 080 (150): 964
+36: 09/1800: 15.6S 154.9E: 070 (135): 070 (130): 974
+48: 10/0600: 16.0S 153.8E: 090 (165): 060 (110): 982
+60: 10/1800: 16.2S 152.6E: 095 (180): 060 (110): 982
+72: 11/0600: 16.2S 151.7E: 105 (190): 055 (100): 985
+96: 12/0600: 15.7S 149.9E: 125 (235): 055 (100): 985
+120: 13/0600: 15.7S 147.7E: 175 (325): 065 (120): 978
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) remains at category 4 strength. The cloud
signature suggested a peak in intensity earlier this afternoon, with a clear
circular eye present. However the eye has since begun to cool and fill,
suggesting Jasper may be beginning a weakening trend. Recent microwave passes
also indicate a weakening in the northern sector of the eyewall. Recent motion
has been trochoidal towards the south.

Intensity is set at 105kn based primarily on Dvorak analysis, supported by
objective aids.

Dvorak: Recent DTs have been in the 5.5 to 6.5 range (WMG/OW eye with
surrounding temp ranging from B to LG). MET is 6.0 based on a 24 hour D trend,
Pattern-T is also 6.0. Final T and CI =6.0 based on DT. Current objective aids:
ADT 122 kn, AiDT 113 kn, DPRINT 117 kn, DMINT 121 kn (at 0515 UTC), SATCON 110
kn (0328 UTC), all 1-min.

Structure is consistent with recent SAR passes at 1914 UTC and 0303 UTC.

There is some evidence that the environment is becoming less favourable for
development: although SSTs remain >28C, favourable outflow is now restricted to
the southern quadrants only and the system's track is expected to take it into
progressively stronger wind shear. Further intensification is unlikely now, as
positive environmental influences start to decay.

The system has been tracking south southwest under the steering of a mid-level
ridge to the east and southeast. This influence and track is likely to continue
today. Once the mid-level trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge
extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend,
giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast.

From Friday night and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and dry air
entrainment, should lead to a period of gradual weakening. Some models indicate
there might be an intensification phase with easing of wind shear as Jasper
approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between
Cape Melville and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next
week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the
Queensland coast in the vicinity of Cairns or Port Douglas.

There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into
the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over
whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1323 UTC 08/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 14.9S
Longitude: 156.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (201 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots (260 km/h)
Central Pressure: 946 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/1800: 15.2S 156.2E: 030 (055): 100 (185): 944
+12: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.9E: 040 (075): 090 (165): 955
+18: 09/0600: 15.8S 155.6E: 050 (095): 080 (150): 964
+24: 09/1200: 15.9S 155.3E: 060 (110): 075 (140): 969
+36: 10/0000: 16.2S 154.1E: 075 (145): 065 (120): 978
+48: 10/1200: 16.5S 152.6E: 090 (170): 060 (110): 983
+60: 11/0000: 16.8S 151.3E: 100 (185): 055 (100): 986
+72: 11/1200: 16.7S 150.1E: 105 (195): 055 (100): 986
+96: 12/1200: 16.3S 147.9E: 135 (250): 060 (110): 982
+120: 13/1200: 16.7S 145.1E: 190 (355): 060 (110): 983
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has peaked and now expected to weaken.

Position based on IR imagery supported by earlier more accurate microwave
images. Microwave shows some tilt so correction of 0.2 degree to north and west
applied to IR position.
Intensity: maintained at 100kn based on Dvorak analysis and supported by
objective aids.
Dvorak: Eye structure has varied considerably in recent hours: DTs in the 5.5
to 6.0 range (time averaged 6.0 based on B surround with OW/B eye). MET= 5.5
based on a 24 h D- trend without adjustment. Final T and CI = 6.0.
Current objective aids: ADT 117 kn, AiDT 105 kn, DPRINT 101 kn, DMINT 121 kn
(at 07 UTC), SATCON 110 kn (0530 UTC), all 1-min.
Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by
environmental SE'ly flow. The eye remains larger than normal, RMW being 20nm.
Partial SAR pass at 0814UTC shows western quadrant gale extent consistent with
earlier ASCAT and SAR.
Moderate NW wind shear (currently 15kn from CIMSS) is expected to increase
leading to weakening in the next 72 hours. The shear may lead to drier air
being entrained into the circulation to contribute to the weakening. Otherwise
SSTs remain >28C, favourable outflow is now restricted to the southern
quadrants only.
The system has been tracking slowly to the south influenced by a weak mid-level
ridge to the east and southeast and beta effect contribution. By late Saturday
and on Sunday a stronger steering ridge to the south is expected to take Jasper
on a westward track towards the coast. There is now stronger agreement amongst
the range of model guidance leading to increased confidence in this westward
track scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance has Jasper
crossing the coast somewhere between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and
Townsville, which includes Cairns, on a westerly track on Wednesday or
Thursday.
By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period
of intensification ahead of landfall, and a severe impact remains a possibility
at this stage.



In the much longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track
across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelops
towards next weekend and redevelop.

The system has been tracking south southwest under the steering of a mid-level
ridge to the east and southeast. This influence and track is likely to continue
today. Once the mid-level trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge
extending from Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend,
giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast.

From Friday night and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and dry air
entrainment, should lead to a period of gradual weakening. Some models indicate
there might be an intensification phase with easing of wind shear as Jasper
approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between
Cape Melville and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next
week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the
Queensland coast in the vicinity of Cairns or Port Douglas.

There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into
the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over
whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1935 UTC 08/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.2S
Longitude: 156.2E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h)
Central Pressure: 951 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/0000: 15.5S 155.9E: 035 (065): 090 (165): 955
+12: 09/0600: 15.7S 155.7E: 045 (085): 080 (150): 964
+18: 09/1200: 15.9S 155.3E: 055 (105): 075 (140): 969
+24: 09/1800: 16.0S 154.7E: 065 (120): 070 (130): 974
+36: 10/0600: 16.4S 153.4E: 085 (155): 060 (110): 982
+48: 10/1800: 16.7S 151.9E: 095 (170): 055 (100): 983
+60: 11/0600: 16.8S 150.7E: 100 (185): 055 (100): 986
+72: 11/1800: 16.6S 149.7E: 115 (215): 055 (100): 985
+96: 12/1800: 16.4S 147.3E: 155 (290): 065 (120): 982
+120: 13/1800: 16.8S 144.6E: 200 (375): 050 (095): 989
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) is now weakening and recent imagery
showing the loss of an eye pattern.
Position based on IR imagery, without any recent microwave support. IR imagery
shows the centre wobbling about that is in part likely to trochoidal motion.
Intensity: 95kn based on Dvorak analysis and supported by objective aids that
all now show weakening. Dvorak: Embedded Centre (in Black): DT=5.0. MET= 5.0
based on a 24 h W trend. Final T 5.0 and CI = 5.5. Current objective aids:
SATCON 95 kn, ADT 107 kn, AiDT 95 kn, DPRINT 90 kn, DMINT not updated. all
1-min.
Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by
environmental SE'ly flow. RMW= 20nm.
Weakening is occurring under increasing NW wind shear (25kn from CIMSS).
Weakening should continue in the next 72 hours aided by drier air being
entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain >28C but upper level
outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only.
Jasper has been tracking slowly to the south southwest influenced by a weak
mid-level ridge to the east and southeast and beta effect contribution. By late
Saturday and on Sunday a stronger steering ridge to the south is expected to
take Jasper on a westward track towards the coast. There is now stronger
agreement amongst the range of model guidance leading to increased confidence
in this westward track scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance
has Jasper crossing the coast between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and
Townsville, which includes Cairns, on about Wednesday.
By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for a period
of intensification ahead of landfall, and a severe impact remains a possibility
at this stage. In the much longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's
westerly track across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria and
redevelops next Friday and Saturday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0123 UTC 09/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 156.0E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (215 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 95 knots (175 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 135 knots (250 km/h)
Central Pressure: 950 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/5.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/0600: 15.8S 155.7E: 035 (065): 085 (155): 960
+12: 09/1200: 15.9S 155.3E: 045 (085): 075 (140): 969
+18: 09/1800: 16.1S 154.8E: 055 (100): 070 (130): 974
+24: 10/0000: 16.4S 154.2E: 060 (115): 065 (120): 978
+36: 10/1200: 16.8S 152.6E: 075 (135): 060 (110): 983
+48: 11/0000: 17.1S 151.1E: 090 (165): 055 (100): 986
+60: 11/1200: 16.9S 149.9E: 095 (180): 055 (100): 986
+72: 12/0000: 16.5S 148.8E: 110 (200): 055 (100): 986
+96: 13/0000: 16.2S 146.5E: 145 (265): 065 (120): 979
+120: 14/0000: 16.1S 144.1E: 200 (365): 045 (085): 992
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) cloud structure supports initial weakening
with the loss of an eye pattern. Recent Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR)
observation suggests Jasper remains a Category 4, however. Position based on
latest VIS imagery, ASCAT scatterometry from 2226 UTC and Sentinel SAR imagery
from 1919 UTC.

Intensity: 95kn based on recent SAR imagery.
Dvorak: Vis curved band pattern (3-hr average) gives DT = 4.0, a 24 h W+ trend,
yields a MET=4.5, adjusted to 4.0. Final T = 4.0 and CI = 5.0. CIMSS ADT = 5.0
and NESDIS ADT = 4.7.
Current objective aids: SATCON 95 kn, ADT 92 kn, AiDT 88 kn, DPRINT 75 kn,
DMINT 98kn (all 1-minute wind speeds).

Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by
environmental SE'ly trade flow. Radius of maximum winds is 12nm based on recent
SAR imagery.

Weakening is occurring under increasing NW wind shear (25kn from CIMSS).
Weakening should continue in the next 72 hours aided by drier air being
entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C
but upper level outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only.
Jasper continues to be influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave that is forecast
to maintain its strength as it tracks westward.

Jasper has been tracking slowly to the southwest influenced by a weak mid-level
ridge to the southeast and beta effect contribution. By Sunday, a stronger
steering ridge to the south is expected to take Jasper on a westward track
towards the far north Queensland coast. There is now stronger agreement
amongst the range of model guidance leading to increased confidence in this
westward track scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance has
Jasper crossing the coast between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and
Townsville, on about Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease
with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall, and a
severe tropical cyclone is forecast before crossing.

In the much longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track
across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria and redevelops next
Friday and Saturday.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0720 UTC 09/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.6S
Longitude: 155.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/14HRS STT:W1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 09/1200: 15.8S 155.0E: 040 (080): 065 (120): 974
+12: 09/1800: 16.2S 154.5E: 050 (095): 060 (110): 978
+18: 10/0000: 16.5S 154.0E: 055 (105): 060 (110): 978
+24: 10/0600: 16.8S 153.3E: 060 (115): 055 (100): 982
+36: 10/1800: 17.2S 151.6E: 075 (135): 050 (095): 986
+48: 11/0600: 17.2S 150.1E: 085 (155): 050 (095): 985
+60: 11/1800: 16.7S 149.1E: 090 (170): 050 (095): 985
+72: 12/0600: 16.4S 148.0E: 105 (195): 055 (100): 982
+96: 13/0600: 16.2S 145.5E: 145 (270): 065 (120): 974
+120: 14/0600: 16.1S 143.1E: 185 (345): 040 (075): 992
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has weakened rapidly in the last 6 hours
due to dry air entrainment and strong vertical wind shear. Position based on
latest VIS imagery and AMSR2 microwave imagery at 0347 UTC.

Intensity: 65kn based on Dvorak analysis and supported by recent AMSR2 data.
Dvorak: VIS curved band pattern yields DT 3.0. 24-hour W+ trend yields a
MET=4.5, adjusted to 4.0. Final T constrained to 4.0 with CI = 4.5. CIMSS ADT =
4.2 and NESDIS ADT = 4.4. Current objective aids: SATCON 69 kn, ADT 82 kn, AiDT
71 kn, DPRINT 64 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds).

Wind structure: gales extend further in southern quadrants assisted by
environmental SE'ly trade flow. Radius of maximum winds is 20nm based on AMSR2
imagery.

Weakening is occurring under strong NW wind shear (20kn from CIMSS). Weakening
should continue in the next 48 hours aided by drier air being entrained into
the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at approximately 28C but upper
level outflow is now restricted to the southern quadrants only. Jasper
continues to be influenced by an equatorial Rossby wave that is forecast to
maintain its strength as it tracks westward.

Jasper has been tracking slowly to the south southwest influenced by a weak
mid-level ridge to the east and beta effect contribution. By Sunday, a stronger
steering ridge to the south is expected to take Jasper on a westward track
towards the coast together. There is now stronger agreement amongst the range
of model guidance leading to increased confidence in this westward track
scenario towards the coast. The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing
the coast between Cape Melville (north of Cooktown) and Lucinda, most likely on
Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast to ease with the potential for
a period of intensification ahead of landfall, and a severe impact remains a
possibility at this stage.

In the longer term, some model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track
across Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1940 UTC 09/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 154.8E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (255 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 979 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm (335 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 10/0000: 16.3S 154.2E: 045 (080): 060 (110): 980
+12: 10/0600: 16.5S 153.5E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 983
+18: 10/1200: 16.8S 152.7E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 987
+24: 10/1800: 17.0S 151.8E: 060 (115): 050 (095): 987
+36: 11/0600: 17.1S 150.3E: 060 (105): 050 (095): 987
+48: 11/1800: 16.7S 149.1E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 986
+60: 12/0600: 16.3S 148.0E: 085 (155): 060 (110): 979
+72: 12/1800: 16.1S 146.7E: 105 (195): 065 (120): 976
+96: 13/1800: 16.4S 143.8E: 150 (275): 035 (065): 995
+120: 14/1800: 15.8S 141.4E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) is gradually weakening under ongoing
northwesterly wind shear. Deep convection is confined to southern quadrants.
Position was based on latest EIR and proxy Vis imagery, supported by AMSR2 at
1438UTC and ASCAT-B at 1140UTC.
Intensity: 60kn based AMSR2/ASCAT wind analysis and average objective aids
(lower) with the 18UTC Dvorak analysis (higher).
Dvorak: Embedded centre (LG) yields DT 4.5, higher than the MET of 4.0. FT=4.0
but CI= 4.5 held higher because of 12UTC FT constraint. CIMSS ADT =3.8. Current
objective aids: SATCON 61 kn, ADT 61 kn, AiDT 52 kn, DMINT 62kn (1440UTC),
DPRINT 52 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds).
Wind structure: AMSR2 at 1437UTC, ASCAT-B 1140UTC and ASCATC 1054UTC show gales
extend further in southern quadrants assisted by environmental SE'ly trade
flow. RMW= 30nm based on ASCAT and AMSR2 microwave imagery.
Weakening has slowed under moderate to strong NW wind shear (22kn from CIMSS).
Some further weakening should continue in the next 36-48 hours aided by drier
air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs remain warm at
approximately 28C but upper level outflow is restricted to the southern
quadrants only.
Jasper is moving to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge
to the south towards the north Queensland coast over the coming days. There is
greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown
and Cardwell, most likely on Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast
to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall. A
severe impact remains a possibility at landfall, depending on the time
available prior to landfall.
In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across
Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the
Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0132 UTC 10/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.3S
Longitude: 154.2E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (235 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 981 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm (55 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 10/0600: 16.6S 153.6E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 985
+12: 10/1200: 16.9S 152.7E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 986
+18: 10/1800: 17.2S 151.8E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 986
+24: 11/0000: 17.3S 151.0E: 065 (120): 050 (095): 985
+36: 11/1200: 17.0S 149.5E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 985
+48: 12/0000: 16.6S 148.3E: 060 (110): 055 (100): 983
+60: 12/1200: 16.2S 147.0E: 070 (130): 060 (110): 978
+72: 13/0000: 16.2S 145.6E: 100 (180): 065 (120): 975
+96: 14/0000: 16.6S 142.8E: 140 (255): 030 (055): 997
+120: 15/0000: 15.7S 140.3E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 997
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has weakened to a category 2 cyclone due to
increased northwesterly wind shear and dry air entrainment. Deep convection has
been persistent in the southern quadrants.

Position was based on animated Vis and microwave data.

Intensity: 55kn based on Dvorak analysis, yielding a FT=3.5 and holding CI=4.0.
CIMSS ADT =3.7 and NESDIS ADT=3.5. Current objective aids: SATCON 56 kn, ADT 59
kn, AiDT 50 kn, DMINT 62kn (1754UTC), DPRINT 48 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds).

Jasper continues to show signs of weaken trend under moderate to strong NW wind
shear (22kn from CIMSS). Some further weakening should continue in the next 48
hours aided by drier air being entrained into the circulation. Otherwise SSTs
remain warm at approximately 28C but upper level outflow is restricted to the
southern quadrants only.

Jasper is moving to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge
to the south towards the north Queensland coast over the coming days. There is
greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown
and Cardwell, most likely on Wednesday. By Tuesday the wind shear is forecast
to ease with the potential for a period of intensification ahead of landfall. A
severe impact remains a possibility at landfall, depending on the time
available prior to landfall.

In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across
Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the
Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0734 UTC 10/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.9S
Longitude: 153.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (219 deg)
Speed of Movement: 8 knots (14 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 982 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 150 nm (280 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: 45 nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 10/1200: 17.2S 152.8E: 045 (080): 050 (095): 986
+12: 10/1800: 17.6S 152.0E: 055 (100): 050 (095): 986
+18: 11/0000: 17.8S 151.2E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 986
+24: 11/0600: 17.8S 150.4E: 060 (110): 050 (095): 985
+36: 11/1800: 17.4S 149.2E: 060 (105): 050 (095): 985
+48: 12/0600: 17.1S 148.1E: 075 (140): 060 (110): 978
+60: 12/1800: 16.6S 146.8E: 090 (165): 065 (120): 975
+72: 13/0600: 16.7S 145.5E: 115 (215): 065 (120): 974
+96: 14/0600: 17.2S 142.8E: 160 (300): 030 (055): 997
+120: 15/0600: 16.4S 140.4E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 997
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U), a category 2 cyclone is maintaining intensity as
it slowly moves towards the far north Queensland coast. Deep convection is
persisting in the southern quadrants. Position was based on animated Vis and
microwave data.

Intensity: 55kn based on Dvorak analysis, yielding a FT=4.0 and CI=4.0. CIMSS
ADT =3.3 and NESDIS ADT=3.5. Current objective aids: SATCON 50 kn, ADT 51 kn,
AiDT 42 kn, DMINT 56kn (1754UTC), DPRINT 49 kn (all 1-minute wind speeds).

Jasper has weakened in the last 24 hours due moderate NW wind shear, which has
dropped to about 18kn. The systems seems to be slightly better organised with
deep convection starting to wrap further than it was 12-24 hours ago. The SSTs
remain warm at approximately 28C with strong upper divergence and a strong
outflow channel to the south.

Jasper is moving to the west southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge
to the south towards the north Queensland coast over the coming days. There is
greater consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown
and Cardwell, most likely on Wednesday. Jasper is likely to maintain an
intensity of category 2, possibly intensifying to a category 3 before landfall.


In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across
Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the
Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 11/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 149.7E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (287 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (13 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 989 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 160 nm (295 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 11/1200: 17.1S 149.0E: 030 (055): 045 (085): 991
+12: 11/1800: 16.7S 148.7E: 040 (075): 045 (085): 990
+18: 12/0000: 16.5S 148.3E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 987
+24: 12/0600: 16.4S 147.7E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 987
+36: 12/1800: 16.3S 146.5E: 065 (120): 060 (110): 980
+48: 13/0600: 16.4S 144.9E: 085 (160): 050 (095): 988
+60: 13/1800: 16.6S 143.4E: 110 (205): 030 (055): 999
+72: 14/0600: 16.5S 142.1E: 140 (260): 030 (055): 999
+96: 15/0600: 15.1S 139.3E: 180 (330): 030 (055): 999
+120: 16/0600: 13.5S 137.4E: 190 (350): 035 (065): 996
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Jasper remains largely devoid of deep convection, though a
single convective bloom has developed on the northern flank during the past
couple of hours. Position good based on animated VIS imagery.

Dvorak analysis is largely inapplicable to the intensity due to the absence of
deep convection. DT is unable to be assigned. MET 2.5 from a weakening 24 hour
trend. FT and CI both 2.5. Current objective aids: SATCON 44 kn, ADT 25 kn,
AiDT 33 kn, DMINT 38 kn (from 0500 UTC), DPRINT 33 kn (all 1-minute wind
speeds). Surface observations at 06 UTC: south southwesterly 36 kn at Flinders
Reef (around 70 nm to west), west northwesterly 38 kn at Willis Island (around
80 nm to the north). Current and previous observations suggest gales remain in
at least three quadrants. Intensity held at 45 knots.

Jasper is moving to the west northwest towards the north Queensland coast under
the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south. There is good consensus in
guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between Cooktown and Innisfail, most
likely around or just north of Cairns, on Wednesday.

CIMSS wind analysis suggests that Jasper is moving into a broad area of lower
(10-15 knot) deep layer wind shear as it moves under the axis of an upper
shortwave trough. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27-28C, and this moderately
favourable environment continues along the forecast track until landfall on
Queensland's North Tropical Coast on Wednesday. A mitigating factor will be
upper outflow, which will be limited as the system moves to the west of the
upper shortwave. Based on these environmental conditions and NWP, some
intensification is therefore expected prior to landfall, most likely beginning
Tuesday morning, and a category 2 landfall remains the expectation. If the
system moves slower than forecast and crosses overnight Wednesday or Thursday,
a very slim chance remains of a severe category 3 crossing.

In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across
Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the
Gulf of Carpentaria is possible next weekend.

[ChrisH-UK]

The GFS has Jasper's remnants emerging out over the indian ocean before coming back on to Australia.

[ChrisH-UK]

Here's a IR loop from Himawari Meso sector. Also just remembered that Australia has a decent radar coverage and lo and behold Jasper went over one of their radars unfortunately I don't have the images of it but here's a radar loop at this moment.

[ChrisH-UK]

Tropical Cyclone Jasper at dawn.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Sausius_wx/status/1734368161686855734

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0132 UTC 12/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 16.4S
Longitude: 148.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west northwest (301 deg)
Speed of Movement: 7 knots (12 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 12/0600: 16.1S 147.6E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 988
+12: 12/1200: 15.9S 147.1E: 050 (090): 045 (085): 988
+18: 12/1800: 15.9S 146.5E: 055 (100): 055 (100): 982
+24: 13/0000: 16.0S 145.7E: 060 (115): 060 (110): 979
+36: 13/1200: 16.2S 144.2E: 070 (130): 040 (075): 992
+48: 14/0000: 16.4S 143.0E: 100 (185): 030 (055): 997
+60: 14/1200: 16.1S 141.6E: 120 (225): 025 (045): 999
+72: 15/0000: 15.6S 140.6E: 135 (250): 030 (055): 997
+96: 16/0000: 14.1S 138.0E: 155 (285): 035 (065): 994
+120: 17/0000: 12.9S 135.8E: 190 (355): 030 (055): 997
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper continues to maintain limited deep convection. Position
is reasonable based on animated IR imagery, the edge of radar, and local
observations.

Dvorak analysis is based on MET and PAT giving a FT and CI of 3.0. Current
objective aids: ADT 41 kts, AiDT 33 kt, DPRINT 36 kts, DMINT 37 kt from 2012
UTC, SATCON 44 kt at 1830 UTC (all 1-minute wind speeds). ASCAT pass at 2350
UTC indicates winds to 45 knots and confirms the structure of the wind field.

Surface observations at 00 UTC: Bougainville Reef 37 knots southwest, Holmes
Reef 36 knots east southeasterly, Flinders Reef 33 knots easterly. Current and
previous observations indicate gales remain in at least three quadrants.
Intensity held at 45 knots.

Jasper is moving to the west-northwest towards the north tropical Queensland
coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the south.
There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast between
Cooktown and Cairns, most likely between Wujal Wujal and Port Douglas, on
Wednesday. Because of the wind structure and speed of movement, gales are
likely to be experienced on the coast around 6 hours before the centre crosses
the coast. There is a large area of below gale force winds near the centre.

CIMSS wind analysis indicates 8 knots of southerly shear at 18 UTC. Wind shear
is forecast to stay in the low to moderate range through to landfall but
limited outflow is expected to the south as the system is now moving to the
west of an upper short wave trough. SSTs remain warm at approximately 27
degrees Celsius. Based on these environmental conditions and NWP, some
intensification is possible prior to landfall, most likely overnight during the
diurnally favourable period.

In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across
Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the
Gulf of Carpentaria is possible this weekend.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1320 UTC 12/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.7S
Longitude: 147.4E
Location Accuracy: within 10nm (20 km)
Movement Towards: northwest (305 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 35 nm (65 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 12/1800: 15.8S 146.9E: 025 (045): 050 (095): 987
+12: 13/0000: 16.0S 146.3E: 040 (070): 060 (110): 980
+18: 13/0600: 16.0S 145.6E: 050 (095): 050 (095): 987
+24: 13/1200: 16.1S 144.9E: 065 (115): 040 (075): 994
+36: 14/0000: 16.2S 143.5E: 085 (155): 030 (055): 999
+48: 14/1200: 15.9S 142.6E: 110 (200): 025 (045): 1001
+60: 15/0000: 15.6S 141.4E: 130 (240): 030 (055): 999
+72: 15/1200: 15.2S 140.2E: 130 (245): 030 (055): 999
+96: 16/1200: 14.0S 137.7E: 165 (300): 040 (075): 994
+120: 17/1200: 13.5S 135.3E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 999
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper has slowed over the last 6 hours and has begun moving
in a more westerly direction. Jasper has slightly weakened, but conditions are
favourable for re-intensification to a category 2 system as it approaches the
coast.

Position is reasonable as it is captured on the edge of Cairns radar, local
observations are available and the LLCC is unobscured by cloud on satellite
imagery.

Tropical Cyclone Jasper has been gradually losing deep convection over the last
24 hours. Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern, with 0.5 wrap
giving a DT of 2.5 which is consistent with MET and PAT giving a FT of 2.5. CI
is held at 3.0. Current objective aids: ADT 33 kts, AiDT 49 kt, DPRINT 41 kts,
DMINT 39 kt, SATCON 47 kt (all 1-minute wind speeds).

Surface observations at 12 UTC: Holmes Reef 41 knots easterly, Bougainville
Reef 22 knots southwest. Current and previous observations indicate gales
remain in at least three quadrants. Intensity is estimated at 45 knots.

Jasper is starting to take a more westerly track towards the north tropical
Queensland coast under the influence of a low-level and mid-level ridge to the
south. There is good consensus in guidance for Jasper to cross the coast
between Cooktown and Cairns, most likely between Cooktown and Port Douglas, on
Wednesday afternoon. Because of the wind structure and speed of movement, gales
are likely to be experienced on the coast around 6 hours before the centre
crosses the coast. There is a large area of below gale force winds near the
centre.

CIMSS wind analysis indicates 2 knots of easterly shear at 06 UTC. Wind shear
is forecast to stay in the low range through to landfall. SSTs remain warm at
approximately 27 degrees Celsius. Based on these environmental conditions and
NWP, some further intensification is possible prior to landfall, most likely
very early Wednesday morning during the peak diurnally favourable period.

In the longer term, model guidance continues Jasper's westerly track across
Cape York Peninsula and into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Redevelopment over the
Gulf of Carpentaria is possible this weekend.