SPAC: JASPER - Remnants

[Hurricane2022]

92P INVEST 231201 0600 7.2S 171.2E SHEM 15 1008

[Hurricane2022]

In the last 4 runs the GFS has insisted on showing that 92P will suddenly become a 965-975 mbar storm upon reaching the Solomon Islands, with a brief weakening before becoming a Category 3 - 4 west of Vanuatu

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1731137622271996257

[Hurricane2022]

This needs to get more attention

[ChrisH-UK]

Invest-92P Clean IR Source - https://col.st/oRFZv

[cycloneye]

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 10:39 pm EST on Tuesday 5 December 2023

At 10 pm AEST Tuesday, Tropical Cyclone Jasper (Category 1) with central
pressure 994 hPa was located near latitude 9.4 south longitude 157.1 east,
which is about 315 km west of Honiara and 1490 km northeast of Cairns. The
system is moving west at 6 kilometres per hour.

Tropical cyclone Jasper has formed in the Solomon Sea and is slow moving. It is
expected to intensify, becoming a severe tropical cyclone during Thursday,
while tracking south-southwest into the Coral Sea.

Jasper is expected to intensify further over the following days as it continues
on a general south-southwest track and moves through the central Coral Sea.

Jasper may approach the Queensland coast early next week. There is large
uncertainty as to which parts of the Queensland coast will be impacted.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued by 5 am AEST Tuesday.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1314 UTC 05/12/2023
Name: Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 9.4S
Longitude: 157.1E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west (270 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (6 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots (75 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Central Pressure: 994 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRs
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 05/1800: 10.0S 157.1E: 035 (065): 045 (085): 992
+12: 06/0000: 10.5S 157.1E: 050 (090): 050 (095): 989
+18: 06/0600: 10.9S 157.0E: 055 (105): 060 (110): 982
+24: 06/1200: 11.3S 156.8E: 060 (115): 070 (130): 974
+36: 07/0000: 12.1S 156.5E: 065 (120): 080 (150): 965
+48: 07/1200: 13.0S 156.2E: 080 (150): 090 (165): 955
+60: 08/0000: 13.9S 155.6E: 095 (180): 090 (165): 955
+72: 08/1200: 14.3S 155.2E: 110 (205): 085 (155): 959
+96: 09/1200: 15.1S 154.2E: 145 (270): 075 (140): 968
+120: 10/1200: 15.9S 153.0E: 220 (405): 070 (130): 973
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Jasper, 02U, is slow moving over the Solomon Sea.

Current position is based on animated IR satellite imagery, with good
certainty.

Dvorak analysis is based on a curved band pattern with a 0.5 wrap with an
additional 0.5 added due to the band being W or colder with significant region
CDG giving DT 3.0. MET is 2.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, pattern T is adjusted
up to 3 also based on band being W or colder. Final T and CI set at 3.0.
Objective aids are ADT 39 knots, AiDT 33 knots, DPRINT 46 knots, DMINT 45 knots
(all 1-min). Intensity is maintained at 40 knots.

The system is located to the southwest of an upper anticyclone, with some low
northerly deep layer wind shear. Development of the system over the last 24
hours has been aided by an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward
outflow in the short to medium term. Although the intensity has plateaued over
the past 6 hours, further intensification is expected, with the system forecast
to develop into a severe tropical cyclone early Thursday as it moves into the
Coral Sea.

The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a weak
mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in
the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the
upper trough passes to the south during the next 24-36 hours. Once this trough
has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially
cradle the system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward
component. By early next week, this ridge is in turn eroded by the approach of
another upper trough, though there is some divergence between model guidance on
the strength and timing of this feature, and consequent uncertainty in the
track going into these longer lead times. Recent guidance is favouring the
scenario where Jasper approaches the Queensland coast, between Cooktown and
Mackay, on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone next week. Other potential
outcomes are a more southerly track, consequently moving the system towards the
Queensland coast south of Mackay, or a slow moving system that remains over the
Coral Sea beyond the next seven days.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 05/1930 UTC.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1731988938967875804

[ChrisH-UK]

Red Band Visible Meso Sector, Himarwari 9 , Source - https://col.st/qNZNX

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Ben_Domensino/status/1732218851822289090

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1732377813959716975

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1732443612049199337

[Cargill]

The Queensland regional city of Mackay (pop 100K, and 21°South) has been identified as the most probable crossing point. The whole area is very flat (sugarcane country) and prone to widespread flooding. Also in the mix are the Whitsunday Islands (a major tourism and sailing hub) - beautiful part of the world and no stranger to major cyclones, with 1-2 per decade.

[cycloneye]

Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 11.7S
Longitude: 157.1E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (206 deg)
Speed of Movement: 2 knots (4 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Central Pressure: 967 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 07/0000: 12.2S 157.1E: 040 (080): 080 (150): 963
+12: 07/0600: 12.7S 157.0E: 050 (095): 090 (165): 954
+18: 07/1200: 13.2S 156.8E: 055 (105): 095 (175): 949
+24: 07/1800: 13.8S 156.7E: 065 (115): 105 (195): 938
+36: 08/0600: 14.8S 156.4E: 080 (145): 105 (195): 938
+48: 08/1800: 15.5S 155.8E: 105 (190): 090 (165): 953
+60: 09/0600: 16.0S 155.1E: 125 (230): 080 (150): 963
+72: 09/1800: 16.3S 154.3E: 150 (275): 070 (130): 971
+96: 10/1800: 16.9S 152.3E: 200 (370): 060 (110): 980
+120: 11/1800: 17.3S 150.8E: 235 (435): 060 (110): 980
REMARKS:
Development of Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has recently stalled, but further
intensification is forecast over the next 24-36 hours.

Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery and recent
microwave passes. Motion has slowed but movement remains generally towards the
south.

Intensity 75kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective
aids.

Dvorak: Pattern has been unclear at times; a curved band pattern in EIR with an
adjustment for cold cloud gives DT 4.0. At times an eye has appeared, MG eye
surrounded by MG which also gives DT 4.0. MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour D+
trend, Pattern-T is 4.5. Final T and CI =4.5 based on MET. Current objective
aids: ADT 77 kn, AiDT 75 kn, DPRINT 77 kn, DMINT 68 kn (at 07 UTC), SATCON 71
kn (all 1-min).

Despite the recent stall in development, the environment is still conducive for
further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in the vicinity of an upper
anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper trough to the south
enhancing upper poleward outflow. The system still maintain good structure on
microwave imagery.

The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a mid-level
ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short
to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough
passes to the south during the next 12 hours. Once this trough has passed, a
stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the
system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component towards
the coast.

Further intensification is expected in the next 24-36 hours. Maximum intensity
is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains possible given
the environmental conditions.

Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air
entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate
there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as
Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

Recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper approaches the
Queensland coast, between Cooktown and Mackay, on a westerly track as a
tropical cyclone by mid next week. Another potential outcome is a slow moving
system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0145 UTC 07/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 156.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (210 deg)
Speed of Movement: 3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 105 knots (195 km/h)
Central Pressure: 969 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 220 nm (405 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 07/0600: 12.5S 156.9E: 030 (055): 085 (155): 961
+12: 07/1200: 13.0S 156.7E: 040 (075): 095 (175): 951
+18: 07/1800: 13.6S 156.6E: 045 (090): 100 (185): 946
+24: 08/0000: 14.1S 156.4E: 055 (100): 105 (195): 940
+36: 08/1200: 14.8S 156.1E: 075 (135): 105 (195): 939
+48: 09/0000: 15.2S 155.3E: 095 (180): 085 (155): 960
+60: 09/1200: 15.4S 154.5E: 120 (225): 075 (140): 969
+72: 10/0000: 15.5S 153.3E: 145 (265): 065 (120): 978
+96: 11/0000: 15.9S 151.1E: 180 (335): 060 (110): 982
+120: 12/0000: 15.9S 149.2E: 210 (385): 060 (110): 982
REMARKS:
Development of Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has stalled during Thursday
morning, but images over the last couple of hours are showing signs of
intensification.

Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery and recent
microwave passes. Motion has slowed but movement remains generally towards the
south southwest.

Dvorak: a curved band pattern of 1.4 wrap in the VIS gives DT 4.5. At times an
eye has appeared. MET is 4.5 based on a 24 hour D- trend, Pattern-T is 4.5.
Final T and CI =4.5 based on MET. Current objective aids: ADT 82 kn, AiDT 78
kn, DPRINT 82 kn, DMINT 84 kn (at 19 UTC), SATCON 71 kn (all 1-min).

Intensity 75kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective
aids.

The environment is conducive for further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in
the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper
trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow. The system still
maintains good structure on microwave imagery.

The system has been tracking slowly south under the steering of a mid-level
ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short
to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough
passes to the south during the next 6-12 hours. Once this trough has passed, a
stronger steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the
system later in the week, giving the track more of a westward component towards
the coast.

Further intensification is expected in the next 18-30 hours. Maximum intensity
is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains a slight
possibility given the environmental conditions.

Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air
entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate
there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as
Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between
Cooktown and Mackay on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week.
Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the
Queensland coast around Cairns.

Another potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving
system that remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days.

[cycloneye]

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0952 UTC 07/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.6S
Longitude: 156.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (192 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (9 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 80 knots (150 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 110 knots (205 km/h)
Central Pressure: 966 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 130 nm (240 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 230 nm (425 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 07/1200: 13.1S 156.7E: 030 (055): 095 (175): 950
+12: 07/1800: 13.6S 156.6E: 040 (075): 100 (185): 945
+18: 08/0000: 14.1S 156.4E: 050 (090): 105 (195): 940
+24: 08/0600: 14.6S 156.2E: 055 (105): 105 (195): 940
+36: 08/1800: 15.0S 155.7E: 075 (145): 100 (185): 945
+48: 09/0600: 15.4S 154.9E: 100 (180): 080 (150): 964
+60: 09/1800: 15.6S 154.0E: 125 (235): 070 (130): 974
+72: 10/0600: 15.8S 153.0E: 150 (275): 060 (110): 982
+96: 11/0600: 16.1S 150.8E: 180 (335): 060 (110): 982
+120: 12/0600: 16.0S 148.8E: 205 (380): 060 (110): 982
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) is gradually intensifying.

Current position is based on animated VIS/EIR satellite imagery. Motion is
slowly towards the south southwest.

Dvorak: Jasper is trying to form an eye, with WMG/LG surrounded by DG given DT
5.0. MET is 5.5 based on a 24 hour D trend, Pattern-T is adjusted to 5. Final T
and CI =5.0 based on PAT/DT. Current objective aids: ADT 92 kn, AiDT 87 kn,
DPRINT 97 kn, DMINT 84 kn (at 19 UTC), SATCON 82 kn (all 1-min).

Intensity 80kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective
aids.

The environment is conducive for further intensification: SSTs >28C; located in
the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low shear environment; and an upper
trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow.

The system has been tracking slowly south southwest under the steering of a
mid-level ridge to the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in
the short to medium term, with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the
upper trough passes to the south. Once this trough has passed, a stronger
steering ridge extending from Australia may partially cradle the system over
the weekend, giving the track more of a westward component towards the coast.

Further intensification is expected in the next 18-30 hours. Maximum intensity
is currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains a slight
possibility given the environmental conditions.

Later Friday and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry air
entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models indicate
there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear as
Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between
Cooktown and Mackay on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next week.
Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the
Queensland coast around Cairns.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/1732738426934284383

[Hurricane2022]

Wow

[cycloneye]

Up to 100kt.

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1911 UTC 07/12/2023
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper
Identifier: 02U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 13.7S
Longitude: 156.9E
Location Accuracy: within 15nm (30 km)
Movement Towards: south (180 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 140 knots (260 km/h)
Central Pressure: 943 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 110 nm (205 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 140 nm (260 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm (150 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 08/0000: 14.2S 156.7E: 030 (060): 105 (195): 939
+12: 08/0600: 14.6S 156.6E: 045 (080): 105 (195): 939
+18: 08/1200: 14.9S 156.3E: 050 (095): 105 (195): 938
+24: 08/1800: 15.1S 156.0E: 060 (110): 100 (185): 944
+36: 09/0600: 15.5S 155.4E: 070 (135): 080 (150): 964
+48: 09/1800: 15.7S 154.6E: 090 (170): 070 (130): 974
+60: 10/0600: 15.8S 153.6E: 115 (210): 060 (110): 982
+72: 10/1800: 16.0S 152.5E: 125 (235): 060 (110): 982
+96: 11/1800: 16.0S 150.5E: 140 (265): 055 (100): 982
+120: 12/1800: 16.1S 148.3E: 180 (330): 060 (110): 981
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jasper (02U) has undergone a period of rapid
intensification in the past 6 hours.

Current position is based on animated EIR satellite imagery, with a clear eye
discernible. Motion is towards the south.

Dvorak: Jasper's eye has improved over the past 3-4 hours, with DTs generally
in the 6.0 to 7.0 range (WMG eye with surrounding temp ranging from LG to W).
MET is 6.0 based on a 24 hour D+ trend, Pattern-T is also 6.0. Final T and CI
=6.0 based on PAT/DT (and constrained by 6 hour limit). Current objective aids:
ADT 124 kn, AiDT 113 kn, DPRINT 105 kn, DMINT 97 kn (at 1451 UTC), SATCON 102
kn (all 1-min).

Intensity 100kn based primarily upon Dvorak analysis supported by objective
aids.

Structure is consistent with a 1046 UTC ASCAT-B pass and a 1449 UTC AMSR2 pass.

The environment is currently conducive for intensification: SSTs >28C; located
in the vicinity of an upper anticyclone, in a low to moderate shear
environment; and an upper trough to the south enhancing upper poleward outflow.


The system has been tracking south under the steering of a mid-level ridge to
the east. This influence and track is likely to continue in the short term,
with the strength of the ridge fluctuating as the upper trough passes to the
south. Once this trough has passed, a stronger steering ridge extending from
Australia is likely to cradle the system over the weekend, giving the track
more of a westward component towards the coast.

Further intensification is possible in the next 12 hours. Maximum intensity is
currently set at 105 knots, but a Category 5 (110kn) remains a possibility
given the current intensity and environmental conditions.

From Friday night and into the weekend, increasing wind shear and potential dry
air entrainment, should lead to a period of some weakening. Some models
indicate there might be an intensification phase with easing of this wind shear
as Jasper approaches the north Queensland coast next week.

The majority of the guidance has Jasper crossing the coast somewhere between
Cooktown and Townsville on a westerly track as a tropical cyclone mid next
week. Some recent guidance is favouring the scenario where Jasper crosses the
Queensland coast around Cairns.

There is a chance that the system may move across Cape York Peninsula and into
the Gulf of Carpentaria towards next weekend, however there is uncertainty over
whether it would retain a suitable enough structure to redevelop. Another
potential outcome (though only a very low chance) is a slow moving system that
remains over the Coral Sea beyond the next seven days.