WPAC: INVEST 92W

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 231215 0000 2.6N 169.4E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

18z eps

[Iceresistance]

Some of the GEFS members really want to break the laws of physics...


https://s5.gifyu.com/images/SiZUu.png

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/151500Z-160600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.4N 144.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 319 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) HIGHLIGHTS THE OVERALL BROAD NATURE OF 91W AND ITS LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) BARELY PEAKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
ROBUST CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-32C) SSTS, AND LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MODERATE
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, SPECIFICALLY GFS
AND NAVGEM, DEPICT 91W TO CONSOLIDATE STEADILY WHILE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO AND REACH
WARNING THRESHOLD (25 KTS INTENSITY) PRIOR TO LANDFALL. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS A STEADY BUILD UP TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STRENGTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N
172.2E, APPROXIMATELY 427 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151038Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER
PARTIAL PASS DEPICT A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE 92W
WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE, STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

00Z, only NAVGEM remains hopeful about development