ATL: BERYL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...BERYL PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING AND TORNADOES OVER EASTERN
TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA...
...DEADLY HAZARDS REMAIN AFTER THE STORM INCLUDING DOWNED POWER
LINES AND CARBON MONOXIDE POISONING FROM IMPROPER GENERATOR USE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 95.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF TYLER TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES



TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Beryl continues to weaken. Satellite images show that the
low- and mid-level centers have decoupled, and NWS Doppler wind
velocities are decreasing. The initial wind speed is set to 40 kt,
in accordance with radar data and surface observations. Beryl
should gradually lose strength and is expected to become a tropical
depression tonight or overnight. The intensity forecast is about
the same as the last one, except a little stronger in the
post-tropical phase near the Great Lakes due to recent global model
wind forecasts of some extratropical energy keeping the winds more
stead at long range.

The storm is moving north-northeastward, faster at 14 kt. Beryl
should turn northeastward overnight and accelerate across the
lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley during the next couple
of days until dissipation occurs between 72-96 h. The new forecast
track is similar to the previous forecast, though a bit to the
west. It is possible this could be a little fast if recent model
solutions of more phasing with a mid-latitude trough occurs.

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will remain elevated along Galveston Bay and along
the coast of Texas from Port O’Connor to Sabine Pass.

2. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected through
tonight across portions of the Upper Texas Coast and across eastern
Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also expected.

3. Use caution after Beryl passes as deadly hazards remain
including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators
are properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
Exercise caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions
through Tuesday across portions of the northern and western Gulf
coasts. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of
lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 31.3N 95.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 33.2N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 36.2N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/0600Z 39.1N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 41.6N 83.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 43.5N 80.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 45.0N 77.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...BERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK
OF TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA
AND ARKANSAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 94.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF TYLER TEXAS
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[cycloneye]

The last NHC advisory.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 94.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF TYLER TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beryl
was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 94.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a remnant
low on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast,
but should continue to recede overnight.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will
spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky,
southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher
amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma,
Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Local flash and
urban flooding is expected.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to gradually
decrease during the next day or so. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi





Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Beryl continues to move farther inland, and the center is now near
the border of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Although the wind and
storm surge hazards have largely subsided, there continues to be a
significant threat of heavy rainfall and tornadoes along the
forecast track for the next day or so. Visit weather.gov for details
on these hazards.

Beryl is expected to move swiftly northeastward while weakening,
and it is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. This is the
last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Beryl. Future information on this system can be found in
discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
400 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KWNH, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/exces ... ok_ero.php

Key Messages:

1. Local flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
northeast Texas, far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern
Missouri through Tuesday. Minor to moderate river flooding is also
possible.

2. Use caution after Beryl passes. Deadly hazards remain including
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise
caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of
water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 32.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

WPC is issuing advisories.

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 43
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

...BERYL WILL BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FROM
THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 93.7W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF TYLER TEXAS
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM N OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of...
* Eastern Oklahoma
* Northern Arkansas
* Central and Southern Missouri
* Illinois
* Northern Indiana
* Southern Michigan


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beryl
was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 93.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h) and
this motion is generally expected to continue today into tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

TORNADOES: A tornado is possible through the early morning across
parts of the Mid-South. A few tornadoes are possible primarily
during the midday to early evening hours across southeast Missouri,
northern Tennessee, Kentucky, southern Illinois, southern and
central Indiana, and into southwest and central Ohio.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts, is expected across portions of the lower and mid
Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes today into Wednesday and
over the Northeast Wednesday into Wednesday night.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html

SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to gradually
decrease during the next day or so. Please consult products from
your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Dolan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 44
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

...BERYL BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...FLASH FLOODING AND A RISK OF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM MID
MISSISSIPPI TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.8N 91.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WSW OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES




Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 44
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in scattered flash flooding today into
tonight from portions of the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi
Valleys into the Great Lakes. The rainfall and flash flood risk will
move into portions of northern New York and northern New England on
Wednesday.

2. Several tornadoes are possible today into tonight across the
lower Ohio Valley, including parts of Kentucky, southeast Missouri,
northwest Tennessee, southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio.

3. Use caution after Beryl passes. Deadly hazards remain including
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise
caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of
water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 35.8N 91.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 10/0000Z 38.3N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 43.0N 81.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 44.7N 78.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Roth

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 45
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

...FLASH FLOODING AND A RISK OF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG PATH
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 89.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 45
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in scattered flash flooding through
tonight from portions of the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi
Valleys into the Great Lakes. The rainfall and flash flood risk will
move into portions of northern New York and northern New England on
Wednesday.

2. Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across the lower
Ohio Valley, including parts of Kentucky, northern Tennessee,
southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio.

3. Use caution after Beryl passes. Deadly hazards remain including
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise
caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of
water to avoid heat exhaustion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 37.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
12H 10/0600Z 40.0N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 42.3N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 11/0600Z 44.3N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 46.0N 76.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Bann

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 46
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES ALONG PATH
OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 86.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WSW OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM W OF COLUMBUS OHIO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of...
* Illinois
* Northern Indiana
* Southern Michigan
* Northern New York
* Vermont
* New Hampshire
* Western Maine



Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 46
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in scattered flash flooding through
tonight from portions of the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Great
Lakes. The rainfall and flash flood risk will move into portions of
northern New York and northern New England on Wednesday.

2. A couple of tornadoes remain possible across parts of the
Ohio Valley this evening and tonight.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 39.6N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/1200Z 41.4N 83.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 43.6N 79.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 45.3N 76.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 47.3N 73.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Bann

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 47
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND A FEW TORNADOES CONTINUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE PATH OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.9N 85.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF INDIANAPOLIS INDIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SW OF DETROIT MICHIGAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 47
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
400 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flash flooding, some of
which may be locally considerable, today into tonight from southeast
Michigan into portions of central and northern New York and northern
New England.

2. A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly over western and
central New York.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 40.9N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 10/1800Z 42.5N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/0600Z 44.3N 78.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 46.0N 74.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Dolan

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 48
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND A FEW TORNADOES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.0N 83.9W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF DETROIT MICHIGAN
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF TORONTO ONTARIO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Flood Watch is in effect for portions of...
* Northern Indiana
* Southern Michigan
* Central and Northern New York
* Northern New England

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl
was located near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 83.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue into Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flash flooding, some of which
may be locally considerable, through tonight from southeast Michigan
through central and northern New York and northern New England.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across upstate New
York, northern Pennsylvania, into parts of New England.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts, is expected across portions of the southern Great Lakes
into central and northern New York and northern New England
today into tonight.


Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 48
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
1100 AM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flash flooding, some of
which may be locally considerable, through tonight from southeast
Michigan through central and northern New York and northern New
England.

2. A few tornadoes are possible today across upstate New York,
northern Pennsylvania, into parts of New England.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 42.0N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0000Z 43.5N 81.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 45.3N 77.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Jackson

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 49
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND A FEW TORNADOES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND STATES INTO THE OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.2N 81.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WSW OF BUFFALO NEW YORK
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM WSW OF MONTREAL QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 49
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flash flooding, some of
which may be locally considerable, through tonight for central and
northern New York and northern New England. Isolated minor river
flooding is possible.

2. A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across upstate New
York, northern Pennsylvania, into parts of New England.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 42.2N 81.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0600Z 43.5N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 44.8N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Jackson

[cycloneye]

This is the last advisory from WPC.

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Advisory Number 50
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL022024
1100 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

...POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLABND TAPERS OFF LATE...
...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE LATE EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.1N 80.3W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM W OF BUFFALO NEW YORK
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WSW OF MONTREAL QUEBEC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of...
* Central and Northern New York
* Northern New England


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl
was located near latitude 43.1 North, longitude 80.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 20
mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue as the system
weakens.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Heavy rainfall will result in areas of flash flooding, some of which
may be locally considerable, in portions of northeastern New York
and northern New England before tapering off late tonight. Isolated
minor to moderate river flooding is possible.

Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible this evening from the
Upper Mid-Atlantic States into western New England,

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher
amounts, is expected across portions of the eastern Great Lakes
through northern New England through tonight.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Post Tropical Cyclone Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Weather Prediction
Center on this system.

$$
Forecaster Bann