WPAC: SON-TINH - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

95W INVEST 240810 1200 26.0N 153.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

TD b
Issued at 2024/08/10 13:30 UTC
Analysis at 08/10 12 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N26°40′ (26.7°)
E153°20′ (153.3°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slow
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 08/11 12 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N29°35′ (29.6°)
E154°20′ (154.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 130 km (70 NM)
Forecast for 08/12 12 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N34°05′ (34.1°)
E149°55′ (149.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[underthwx]

Hello Hayabusa!....how are you doing?....so....what's your thinking about this cyclone?....

[Hayabusa]

Hello Hayabusa!....how are you doing?....so....what's your thinking about this cyclone?....

Hello there! Real life is pretty busy Well this system is expected to become not that significant, so as a TC watcher this system is boring to watch...

ABPW10 PGTW 101530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101530Z-110600ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 10AUG24 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 36.2N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 101500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.0N
154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 700NM EAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH AN INTENSE REGION OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 35NM TO THE SOUTH. PARTIAL 101141Z AND
100959Z ASCAT-C IMAGES INDICATE AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT LOW-
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
DISTURBANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY VIGOROUS EASTERLY OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR 29N 158E. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28-30C. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM MAY SPIN UP
AIDED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRESENT. ADDITIONALLY,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING POLEWARD OVER COOLER
SST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[Hayabusa]

JMA upgraded to TS at 09Z

WTPQ51 ‎RJTD ‎110900
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TS ‎2406 ‎SON-TINH ‎(2406) ‎UPGRADED ‎FROM ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎110900UTC ‎28.4N ‎155.2E ‎FAIR
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
30KT ‎ ‎180NM ‎EAST ‎60NM ‎WEST
FORECAST
12HF ‎ ‎112100UTC ‎31.1N ‎153.5E ‎35NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NNW ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
24HF ‎ ‎120900UTC ‎33.1N ‎151.0E ‎50NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎15KT
PRES ‎ ‎994HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
45HF ‎ ‎130600UTC ‎37.0N ‎146.2E ‎90NM ‎70% ‎TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎=

[Subtrop]

WP, 07, 2024081206, , BEST, 0, 324N, 1515E, 40, 992, TS, 34, NEQ, 110, 0, 0, 80, 1005, 155, 40, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, SON-TINH, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, wpC52024 to wp072024,

[underthwx]

Hello Hayabusa!....how are you doing?....so....what's your thinking about this cyclone?....

Hello there! Real life is pretty busy Well this system is expected to become not that significant, so as a TC watcher this system is boring to watch...

ABPW10 PGTW 101530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101530Z-110600ZAUG2024//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101351ZAUG2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 10AUG24 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 06W (MARIA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 36.2N 145.3E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 101500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.0N
154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 700NM EAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH AN INTENSE REGION OF DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 35NM TO THE SOUTH. PARTIAL 101141Z AND
100959Z ASCAT-C IMAGES INDICATE AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 20-25 KNOT LOW-
LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE
DISTURBANCE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET
BY VIGOROUS EASTERLY OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL NEAR 29N 158E. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28-30C. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM MAY SPIN UP
AIDED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRESENT. ADDITIONALLY,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING POLEWARD OVER COOLER
SST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

Boring is a good thing sometimes.....but heyy....I will be seeing yall soon!.....gonna be in tha Phillipines first week of September!...gonna be in Igbarras near Ililio visiting my fiancees family....and my oldest brother in Luzon...hopefully no typhoons....gonna do some surfin!....peace out brah...