ATL: BERYL - Models

[LarryWx]

From elsewhere, something to possibly keep in mind regarding 2 of the 3 12Z hurricane model runs:

“Both HAFS's are losing where Beryl's center is this afternoon and are fixing on a ‘false’ center of circulation north of the Yucatan peninsula by hour-6 during the run.”

Opinions?

[ROCK]

12Z Euro with a 966 mb hurricane into the east end of Matagorda Bay. Landfall at 7 AM central time on Monday so still roughly 72 hours out. Wouldn't be surprised to see the track shift further east.

https://i.ibb.co/5YWwp1c/ec-fast-mslpa-watl-fh0-72.gif

I think its coming off the YUC at a higher LAT than these model runs are ingesting TBH...I can see TX to LA border be in the mix soon. What a swing from border to border that would be in the span of a few days.

[Steve]

Just looked at that 12Z FV3 Mesoscale model run Steve you alluded to...might be on to something as it handles the trof better which would turn B. Though currently with it coming off sooner into the GOM at a higher lat this might move models even further right. Just seems like all models (except ICON) are playing catch up right now.

Yeah, it's got it sort of moving almost due north as it approaches Galveston or thereabouts (only runs to 60 hours). I use it most often for small systems really near the coast. Aric has chimed in over the years as well, because sometimes you have to rely on mesoscales when the globals are blind to a system at their resolution. FV-3 will eventually replace all US mesoscale models.

The High Resolution Window (HRW) contains forecast images from both the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model and the Nonhydrostatic Multiscale Model on B-grid (FV3).

Also for those who are still unfamiliar with it...

Vertical Equations — FV3 uses vertical equations to limitlessly zoom down to local scales and provide images of up-down air fluctuations, allowing us to resolve thunderstorms and their updraft winds. Older models assume the atmosphere experiences equal forces from above and below.

[MississippiWx]

Btw, 966mb on the Euro sends up alarms to me. For one, 966mb is a strong hurricane that would likely be strengthening quickly on approach. Also, the models have significantly underestimated pressure of Beryl its entire life. So in reality, what could the actual pressure really be here? Just something to think about. If I’m in Central to SE Texas coastline (even SW Louisiana?), I’m preparing for a major hurricane.

[Steve]

From elsewhere, something to possibly keep in mind regarding 2 of the 3 12Z hurricane model runs:

“Both HAFS's are losing where Beryl's center is this afternoon and are fixing on a ‘false’ center of circulation north of the Yucatan peninsula by hour-6 during the run.”

Opinions?

I looked at both of them earlier, and they just seem to lose the system if not the circulation. Perhaps they're picking up on mid-level spin?

[sphelps8681]

12Z Euro with a 966 mb hurricane into the east end of Matagorda Bay. Landfall at 7 AM central time on Monday so still roughly 72 hours out. Wouldn't be surprised to see the track shift further east.

https://i.ibb.co/5YWwp1c/ec-fast-mslpa-watl-fh0-72.gif

I think its coming off the YUC at a higher LAT than these model runs are ingesting TBH...I can see TX to LA border be in the mix soon. What a swing from border to border that would be in the span of a few days.

Dang I am about 45 minutes from LA Border and about 1 1/2 hours from Houston. This is the last thing I need. But I am prepped and ready.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/WxPatel/status/1809290664120557979

[Steve]

Btw, 966mb on the Euro sends up alarms to me. For one, 966mb is a strong hurricane that would likely be strengthening quickly on approach. Also, the models have significantly underestimated pressure of Beryl its entire life. So in reality, what could the actual pressure really be here? Just something to think about. If I’m in Central to SE Texas coastline (even SW Louisiana?), I’m preparing for a major hurricane.

Yeah, I think anybody from Corpus Christi on north and east maybe to the LA/TX border/Sabine River have to be on high alert and are hopefully already topping off their cars. That's a big bonus for people who read this board vs. wait for the nightly news to tell you what's up. We always have a couple days' heads up on the general public. So here's my curiosity. Metro Houston is by far the largest city in the Gulf South but also the closest major metro to the path. Where the storm comes in and on what trajectory will determine effects there. If it's fading NE or NNE, east of Houston say from Baytown over to Orange, seems to be the inland target area. If it comes up due north, the city itself could see the center of circulation or it could even pass on the western side of town (Katy/Ft. Bend County). Below are some of the models and their rainfall estimates for SE Texas through 90 hours

ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

CMC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

[Stormgodess]

Btw, 966mb on the Euro sends up alarms to me. For one, 966mb is a strong hurricane that would likely be strengthening quickly on approach. Also, the models have significantly underestimated pressure of Beryl its entire life. So in reality, what could the actual pressure really be here? Just something to think about. If I’m in Central to SE Texas coastline (even SW Louisiana?), I’m preparing for a major hurricane.

Yeah, I think anybody from Corpus Christi on north and east maybe to the LA/TX border/Sabine River have to be on high alert and are hopefully already topping off their cars. That's a big bonus for people who read this board vs. wait for the nightly news to tell you what's up. We always have a couple days' heads up on the general public. So here's my curiosity. Metro Houston is by far the largest city in the Gulf South but also the closest major metro to the path. Where the storm comes in and on what trajectory will determine effects there. If it's fading NE or NNE, east of Houston say from Baytown over to Orange, seems to be the inland target area. If it comes up due north, the city itself could see the center of circulation or it could even pass on the western side of town (Katy/Ft. Bend County). Below are some of the models and their rainfall estimates for SE Texas through 90 hours

ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

CMC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

The GFS is scary for Louisiana

The CMC is absolutely terrifying for Texas!

What were Gustav's rain totals, anyone know off the top of their head?

[LARanger]

ICON was either going to be a hero or a zero it’s looking like it might be the hero. It’s stuck to its guns for a few days

Been watching ICON since a few days ago when it suggested Baton Rouge when Mexico was pretty popular. It's come west overall but has still been like . . .

[LARanger]

The GFS is scary for Louisiana

Just because it is closer to us? I don't see anything direct (yet) for Louisiana in recent models.

[Steve]

The GFS is scary for Louisiana

Just because it is closer to us? I don't see anything direct (yet) for Louisiana in recent models.

I stopped it at 90 hours. But the band bringing up moisture from the Gulf sets up across SELA and the rainfall paints in there as the storm moves farther north and east inland. You have to run it out farther than 90 hours to see.

[ConvergenceZone]

12Z Euro with a 966 mb hurricane into the east end of Matagorda Bay. Landfall at 7 AM central time on Monday so still roughly 72 hours out. Wouldn't be surprised to see the track shift further east.

https://i.ibb.co/5YWwp1c/ec-fast-mslpa-watl-fh0-72.gif

One bit of good news is that if it is indeed picked up by the trough, that means that will even move faster which will help eliminate the excessive rain amounts and less time to strengthen as well. . I mean the Euro has it making landfall in 3 days, even though it's moving more North. This will be a quick mover.

[Steve]

stormgoddess,

Not sure. We went and stayed with friends in Austin and didn't get back until the next weekend. This is from the NWS recap on the rainfall...

[ConvergenceZone]

Btw, 966mb on the Euro sends up alarms to me. For one, 966mb is a strong hurricane that would likely be strengthening quickly on approach. Also, the models have significantly underestimated pressure of Beryl its entire life. So in reality, what could the actual pressure really be here? Just something to think about. If I’m in Central to SE Texas coastline (even SW Louisiana?), I’m preparing for a major hurricane.

Yeah, I think anybody from Corpus Christi on north and east maybe to the LA/TX border/Sabine River have to be on high alert and are hopefully already topping off their cars. That's a big bonus for people who read this board vs. wait for the nightly news to tell you what's up. We always have a couple days' heads up on the general public. So here's my curiosity. Metro Houston is by far the largest city in the Gulf South but also the closest major metro to the path. Where the storm comes in and on what trajectory will determine effects there. If it's fading NE or NNE, east of Houston say from Baytown over to Orange, seems to be the inland target area. If it comes up due north, the city itself could see the center of circulation or it could even pass on the western side of town (Katy/Ft. Bend County). Below are some of the models and their rainfall estimates for SE Texas through 90 hours

ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

CMC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

The GFS is scary for Louisiana

The CMC is absolutely terrifying for Texas!

What were Gustav's rain totals, anyone know off the top of their head?

In my opinion, the fast speed that it will be moving(once picked up by the trough) will lessen the rainfall amounts.

[Steve]

What are you thinking Convergence? 13-14mph? I know it was moving really fast across the Caribbean, but if it feels the trough (which it's July so it's not going to be some super sharp trough with 60-70mph winds on the east side from the SW), it's going to lift but might not be all that fast like if it was June or September/October. This is mostly uncharted for early July, so I think I'd go with Climatology and err on the lower side of "fast." I could be wrong though.

[ConvergenceZone]

What are you thinking Convergence? 13-14mph? I know it was moving really fast across the Caribbean, but if it feels the trough (which it's July so it's not going to be some super sharp trough with 60-70mph winds on the east side from the SW), it's going to lift but might not be all that fast like if it was June or September/October. This is mostly uncharted for early July, so I think I'd go with Climatology and err on the lower side of "fast." I could be wrong though.

good question about the speed, I'm not sure, but I'm sure we will find out soon enough as the NHC zeroes in on their forecast.

[Stormgodess]

Yeah, I think anybody from Corpus Christi on north and east maybe to the LA/TX border/Sabine River have to be on high alert and are hopefully already topping off their cars. That's a big bonus for people who read this board vs. wait for the nightly news to tell you what's up. We always have a couple days' heads up on the general public. So here's my curiosity. Metro Houston is by far the largest city in the Gulf South but also the closest major metro to the path. Where the storm comes in and on what trajectory will determine effects there. If it's fading NE or NNE, east of Houston say from Baytown over to Orange, seems to be the inland target area. If it comes up due north, the city itself could see the center of circulation or it could even pass on the western side of town (Katy/Ft. Bend County). Below are some of the models and their rainfall estimates for SE Texas through 90 hours

ICON
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

GFS
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

CMC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0512&fh=90

The GFS is scary for Louisiana

The CMC is absolutely terrifying for Texas!

What were Gustav's rain totals, anyone know off the top of their head?

In my opinion, the fast speed that it will be moving(once picked up by the trough) will lessen the rainfall amounts.

Thank you. Flooding is a HUGE concern for me. Even though our property when we bought it the only time the water even reached the house was '84. The benchmark at the time. But we've had to be rescued from there 3 times since 2012. We get surrounded before water ever reaches the house.

With Beryl it'll all depend on Rain, Location of landfall, surge, and timing compared to tides.

[Nimbus]

Drying out over the Yucatan at the moment but might be moving off the coast early.
Dry shear is forecast to keep Beryl from re-intensifying till tomorrow though.
Looks like a long water route with reduced shear after 48 hours.
Not sure the long wave trough is going to dig far enough to disrupt Beryl might just provide an outflow channel?

[captainbarbossa19]

The ICON model sure seems to have a handle on the synoptic pattern coming up.This is from a few days ago:



Here is the 12z run for today:



Almost identical pattern with the same result concerning track.