ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Looks to be a Cat 4 again. ~130 kt FL and ~125 kt SFMR in the NW eyewall, extrap pressure of 957.0 mbar.

[Keldeo1997]

130KT FL 122kt SFMR

Idk if I buy it. Pressure is way too high for those winds.

[Teban54]

Idk if I buy it. Pressure is way too high for those winds.

Not as high as its first 115 kt peak, though (albeit just barely).

[Kazmit]

Beryl has doubled in size since first becoming a hurricane. Grenada and the Grenadines will likely feel her full wrath.

[ColdMiser123]

9z center was 11.7N/59.9W. Plane just found the center at 11.9N/60.3 W.

At that current pace, the actual center should pass Grenada to the north - but severe impacts are still likely there due to the larger southern eyewall.

[aspen]

The second recon plane also found Cat 4 winds (~130 kt FL, ~120 kt SFMR) in the NE eyewall. So it looks like this is indeed a Cat 4 despite its high pressure.

[ColdMiser123]

Should start to see trochoidal wobbles due to the current mass imbalance within the CDO.

The persistent deep convection upshear across the eastern semicircle over the last few days may have been why Beryl verified a little farther south with its initial short term motion over the last couple days.

[Teban54]

140 kt winds exist aloft in the NE eyewall. Wonder how long it will take to mix them down...

[Teban54]

From a pretty cane to an angry cane in 22 hours, yet at the same intensity (unofficial, pending 8am EDT update):

[Teban54]

Officially back to Cat 4

000
WTNT32 KNHC 011153
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE BERYL HAS STRENGTHENED
TO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 70 MI...125 KM E OF GRENADA
ABOUT 90 MI...165 KM SSE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

[TheBurn]

[chaser1]

I'm afraid that the Grenadines are going to feel the wrath of a re-deepening Beryl. Cat 5 may not be out of the question in a matter of hours. REALLY cold tops beginning to wrap around the west to southwest quads

[Category5Kaiju]

I keep forgetting that we still have some hours to go before landfall. Who knows how much it will strengthen now that the EWRC is complete?

[aspen]

Lol this pass supports a low-950s 130kt Cat 4. What a strange storm. I don’t recall seeing a system with such high winds at such high pressures.

[sponger]

Oh my! Grenada may just make it into Southern side of the storm but those other islands to the North are in real trouble.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1807748256236986423

[Hurricane2022]

I'm ready to see Beryl peaking at 150 kt/940 mb

[Teban54]

Lol this pass supports a low-950s 130kt Cat 4. What a strange storm. I don’t recall seeing a system with such high winds at such high pressures.

Given it's 133 kt FL, 133 kt SFMR, I feel it's more likely that the NHC may discard the SFMR reading as being inflated at high wind speeds, similar to what they’ve been doing the last few years.

[Category5Kaiju]

Lol this pass supports a low-950s 130kt Cat 4. What a strange storm. I don’t recall seeing a system with such high winds at such high pressures.

I think it has to do with the background pressures/gradient. Nicole 2016 was 140/950, and Omar 2008 was 130/958 iirc

[Kazmit]

Good morning Beryl.