ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

I get the feeling this has strengthened a good amount since this morning. I haven’t had time to get on much today so I’m quite surprised by the improvement in appearance over the past 8 hours. Betting that deep convection overspreading the center from the north will be the first attempt at cdo formation

[Michele B]

My brother is in Liberty County pretty close to the center of the cone and is agonizing to stay or go. He has a prefab home that did well in Michael but is trying to see if they end up on the western side. But I understand that the wind field will be large with Helene. Will it be large to the west of center or more so east?
Thanks for all you guys do

Local authorities should give guidance for your brother.

Often, people ignore the advice given them, OR they think "That isn't my area...."

But the Emergency authorities have looked at lots more data than we've got access to and make an informed decision to save as many lives as possible.

NEVER ignore advice given on whether to stay or evacuate.

[Hugo1989]

She wants to become a hurricane after midnight!

[NDG]

some good data SHIPS/ buoy data intel..

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Pressure is down to 997 at buoy 42056 and falling pretty rapidly

Wind shift from 40 degrees to 79 probably means the LLC is headed west on a track south of 19 degrees 49 minutes.

As of 30 minutes ago I see 30 degrees winds, where do you see 79 degrees?

[grapealcoholic]

some good data SHIPS/ buoy data intel..

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4

Pressure is down to 997 at buoy 42056 and falling pretty rapidly

Wind shift from 40 degrees to 79 probably means the LLC is headed west on a track south of 19 degrees 49 minutes.

it’s 30 degrees now. LLC still moving mostly north

[johngaltfla]

Pressure is down to 997 at buoy 42056 and falling pretty rapidly

Wind shift from 40 degrees to 79 probably means the LLC is headed west on a track south of 19 degrees 49 minutes.

it’s 30 degrees now. LLC still moving mostly north

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[Pipelines182]

Unless the center is in a different spot, it does look to be moving due north.

Having Ian flashbacks here because I remember distinctly it was supposed to move NW off the western tip of Cuba and it made that north turn early and I remember talking here about it on here and how it actually hit the western side of the Isle of Youth when it wasn't supposed to. The Isle wasn't even in the cone 24 hours before it got hit. And then after it crossed Cuba that NE turn way earlier than any model thought it was and then again, the models had to shift.

Storms coming from this area can be very tricky and do what they want to do. Not saying this will but just be watchful.

Hard to tell right now with the center obscured. Shear is pushing the convection north so it can make it look like that's where the system is going when it's not. With the center maturing, motion can be a bit erratic, but the motion should be generally in the NW direction.

[psyclone]

Anclote to Mexico Beach for the hurricane warning. TS warning pinellas and south.

[DunedinDave]

No Hurricane Warning for Pinellas County. Phew. Looks like we're in good shape here. Even Denis Phillips said it's looking much better for Tampa Bay. *Crossing fingers*

[WaveBreaking]

-80C hot towers starting to fire over the center

[grapealcoholic]

Even 1mb/hr deepening would have a 975mb hurricane entering the gulf

[psyclone]

No Hurricane Warning for Pinellas County. Phew. Looks like we're in good shape here. Even Denis Phillips said it's looking much better for Tampa Bay. *Crossing fingers*

It is. Hopefully we just get our party squalls and some fun weather. It's going to remain miserably hot and humid in the wake of this system (unlike Ian) so anything that reduces power outages is a good thing. I am most pleased with today's developments

[xironman]

Unless the center is in a different spot, it does look to be moving due north.

Having Ian flashbacks here because I remember distinctly it was supposed to move NW off the western tip of Cuba and it made that north turn early and I remember talking here about it on here and how it actually hit the western side of the Isle of Youth when it wasn't supposed to. The Isle wasn't even in the cone 24 hours before it got hit. And then after it crossed Cuba that NE turn way earlier than any model thought it was and then again, the models had to shift.

Storms coming from this area can be very tricky and do what they want to do. Not saying this will but just be watchful.

Hard to tell right now with the center obscured. Shear is pushing the convection north so it can make it look like that's where the system is going when it's not. With the center maturing, motion can be a bit erratic, but the motion should be generally in the NW direction.

At this point it is not shear, it is the steering winds around 500mb. The ULL has retrograded and weakened to the point where it is not shearing the system but ventilating it.

[Nimbus]

Pressure is down to 997 at buoy 42056 and falling pretty rapidly

Wind shift from 40 degrees to 79 probably means the LLC is headed west on a track south of 19 degrees 49 minutes.

it’s 30 degrees now. LLC still moving mostly north

The center was east of the buoy a few hours ago.
Surface pressure down to 996 mb but there are still transitory light winds near or in the center.
Shift to 30 degrees means the LLC is still south of the buoy location

[NDG]

As mentioned by the latest NHC Advisory. The NW heading that they also mentioned will happen tonight has already started, IMO.

Deep convection is gradually filling in within Helene's
circulation, and the well-defined center that formed earlier this
morning is now obscured by cloudiness and showers.

[underthwx]

Helene is looking much better organized...compared to this mornings appearance.....its a large cyclone unfortunately.....

[NDG]

Wind shift from 40 degrees to 79 probably means the LLC is headed west on a track south of 19 degrees 49 minutes.

it’s 30 degrees now. LLC still moving mostly north

The center was east of the buoy a few hours ago.
Surface pressure down to 996 mb but there are still transitory light winds near or in the center.
Shift to 30 degrees means the LLC is still south of the buoy location

30 degrees winds does not mean is south of the buoy

Edit: Now winds are north at 10 degrees. The LLC is east of buoy.

[Frank P]

The little naked LLC not looking naked anymore is it?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This really is a massive storm.

Shear has definitely relaxed in the past six hours. Good outflow is now setting up on all quadrants. Just needs to fill in the center a bit and it's off to the races.

[kevin]

I'm back from some meetings today. Models are all over the place, but let's focus on the storm itself in this thread and she's looking good. Shear is rapidly dropping. It was near 30 kt only 8 hours ago and already fell to 12 kt 2 hours ago (18z). The current 3-hour based shear tendency near Helene is around -30 kt/day. 12z GFS even predicts shear to drop to ~5 kt by 00z. On IR it looks like pink cloudtops are forcing their way around the northern half of Helene's center. The main potential issue for Helene is land interaction with Yucatan, because of course that could destroy even the most potent storms. But it if avoids that (like 18z ICON is showing) I think she's off to the races.