ATL: BERYL - Models

[GalvestonDuck]

18Z Euro

https://i.ibb.co/Snc057p/ec-fast-mslpa-us-fh0-72.gif

Oh no. Galveston / Houston on the strongest side.

I’ve been concerned about the ICON for a while. Now the EURO is strongly on board. Here we go again…

[IcyTundra]

18Z Euro Ensemble slightly further east than the 12Z and the mean is near Sargent

[ROCK]

18Z Euro Ensemble slightly further east than the 12Z and the mean is near Sargent
https://i.ibb.co/Trmr6cB/AL02-2024070518-ECENS-0-120h-large.png

Fully expect the cone to shift at 10pm to the right along with the warning. JMO..

[La Breeze]

18Z Euro Ensemble slightly further east than the 12Z and the mean is near Sargent
https://i.ibb.co/Trmr6cB/AL02-2024070518-ECENS-0-120h-large.png

Fully expect the cone to shift at 10pm to the right along with the warning. JMO..

Just curious - how far to the right do you think the cone may shift?

[Steve]

18Z Euro

https://i.ibb.co/Snc057p/ec-fast-mslpa-us-fh0-72.gif

Oh no. Galveston / Houston on the strongest side.

I’ve been concerned about the ICON for a while. Now the EURO is strongly on board. Here we go again…

Yeah for sure. No doubt atmosphere is juiced ahead. It was hot all day but now it's flash floods in New Orleans and we're hundreds of miles north of there. It's just a boundary that would usually be dying off by this time of evening. Dry desert air ain't in the northern or northwestern gulf at the moment.

ICON doesn't have enough of a track record for me yet. It's had successes and wtfs. I think it is run on some EC parameters by Germany but is in the mid-teens km in resolution. So possibly that lends itself to catching some stuff and missing others. But it's probably one of the tightest res global models though I could be wrong on that for private/paywall versions of other globals. We should find out tomorrow whether it mistakenly tracked the MLC or a combination of centers which was why it was north and stronger all along or if it was the lone ranger among reliable or semi-reliable models (note, NAVGEM may have some skill. I rarely look at it because it's generally pretty bad.) Whatever my opinions on the ICON, I'm giving it weight for Beryl until it proves otherwise. I'm not trusting it exclusively, and I'm not saying it's got everything figured out and progged. But I'm not saying it might not end up being close either. And that's a big deal for this storm. For sure EC, GFS, CMC and probably even the NAM will hit on storms this season since there look to be plenty of them. If this is one only ICON saw, good for that team. We only have about an hour until it runs. Going check the early NAMS and maybe FV-3 to see what they're up to since they're probably on now.

[ROCK]

Some better water as it pulls away.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot

And for everyone who hates this map..too bad!!

[Charleswachal]

18Z Euro Ensemble slightly further east than the 12Z and the mean is near Sargent
https://i.ibb.co/Trmr6cB/AL02-2024070518-ECENS-0-120h-large.png

I am now within miles of the black line on the west side of Houston. This would be a very bad track for rainfall in Houston. Probably 10 plus inches which would cause major flooding.

[Steve]

Catch that update before ICON rolls in. HRRR (too far south for it to be relevant). This has it just offshore of Brownsville in 48 hours which is as far as the 00z run goes out to.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=48

NAM 12km (also far south for it) brings it over to a little farther offshore but still with that western component toward the lower central TX Coast.

However, FV-3, still a bit south for that model but one I trust 100x more than HRRR or NAM, has it way farther offshore and heading much farther up the coast by virtue of how much farther offshore it is. 39 hours. Maybe making a run for Galveston? It goes to 60 hours, so we'll see this complete in a few minutes.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=39

Icon in the on-deck circle.

[Steve]

Update on the FV3, hard to tell. Only has it down to 989mb at 47 hours which is good news if that was to verify but moving north and slightly deepening. We'll see where that goes.

00Z Early Cycle still likes the middle Texas Coast. Believable if it stays relatively weak.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

FV3 Pretty close to landfall down the coast from Galveston Bay around 988.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=51

[ROCK]

Update on the FV3, hard to tell. Only has it down to 989mb at 47 hours which is good news if that was to verify but moving north and slightly deepening. We'll see where that goes.

00Z Early Cycle still likes the middle Texas Coast. Believable if it stays relatively weak.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

FV3 Pretty close to landfall down the coast from Galveston Bay around 988.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=51

Just saw the FV3..the west side of Houston would get the east eyewall but at that pressure it wont be horrible...I have been thru supercells up here in Central Tx worse than that........that NAM though totally out to lunch...

[Steve]

FV-3 comes in down coast from Galveston Bay but decided to move up toward Houston and Beaumont at the end. Doesn't have things terrible - 980's. But that would be a mix of coastal and low lying flooding, probably tropical storm conditions for lots of people and all that brings, but not the worst of the worst case. If it's right, that's kind of a day I'd be into if I lived around Houston. Stock up on the provisions and such and steer clear of downed wires and flooded streets.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=60

[ROCK]

0Z IOCN rolling....out 21 hrs. This wont take long.

[Charleswachal]

FV-3 comes in down coast from Galveston Bay but decided to move up toward Houston and Beaumont at the end. Doesn't have things terrible - 980's. But that would be a mix of coastal and low lying flooding, probably tropical storm conditions for lots of people and all that brings, but not the worst of the worst case. If it's right, that's kind of a day I'd be into if I lived around Houston. Stock up on the provisions and such and steer clear of downed wires and flooded streets.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=60

That would be quite the interesting track for her to take across the Houston metro area.

[Steve]

Let's go. ICON rolling and says not so fast at 21 hours at 992 and much more out to sea. Hmm. This is going to be interesting to see if it outperforms the mesoscales in the < 3 day period.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=21

[catskillfire51]

Icon - Landfall on Freeport. 973mb

[Steve]

Icon saying hold my beer at 39 hours and 982.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0600&fh=39

[hurricane2025]

Icon about the same pretty consistent

[Steve]

Icon - Landfall on Freeport. 973mb

I'm not betting against it and don't assume anyone else is either. What happens after, and where does it predict the most accumulated precipitation? I want to check that vs. what happens next Monday - Tuesday.

[catskillfire51]

Icon - Landfall on Freeport. 973mb

I'm not betting against it and don't assume anyone else is either. What happens after, and where does it predict the most accumulated precipitation? I want to check that vs. what happens next Monday - Tuesday.

Quickly weakens, 5-10” rain in Brazoria and Galveston counties. With a 4”-6” swath all the way to huntsville and lufkin. Post Beryl travels all the way to Illinois.

[ROCK]

thats like 8 runs in a row or more...lol....968 MB