ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ObsessedMiami]

My brother is in Liberty County pretty close to the center of the cone and is agonizing to stay or go. He has a prefab home that did well in Michael but is trying to see if they end up on the western side. But I understand that the wind field will be large with Helene. Will it be large to the west of center or more so east?
Thanks for all you guys do

Local authorities should give guidance for your brother.

Often, people ignore the advice given them, OR they think "That isn't my area...."

But the Emergency authorities have looked at lots more data than we've got access to and make an informed decision to save as many lives as possible.

NEVER ignore advice given on whether to stay or evacuate.

Of course. Appreciate you taking the time to respond. Thank you

[ronjon]

They seem pretty confident with predicting the panhandle/big bend area as landfall.(no warnings for tampa coast) I'm expecting where I'm on the west coast, north of Tampa to probably get winds equal to what we get after a cold front comes by, so i don't think I'll be doing much more than unless something changes tomorrow. Luckily i do live a little further inland from the beach.

A cold front?..there is a hurricane warning from Anclote River (Pinellas-Pasco Border) north which includes Pasco, Hernando and Citrus Counties and a tropical storm warning for Tampa Bay. There is a storm surge warning for Tampa Bay of 5-8 feet. There is a storm surge warning for the coast from Anclote River north of 6-10 feet.

[eastcoastFL]

Surprised to see watches go up here in Martin county but I guess this is going to be an enormous storm in size. I guess we will see where it's heading tomorrow and if those will be dropped or upgrades to warnings.

I hope all those to my north and west and finishing their preps or beginning their evacuations. Helene might not look like much at the moment but 24 hours from now she will likely be a hurricane and the window for evacuations and preps will be closing at that point.

[PavelGaborik10]

For the first time I can say I'm impressed with Helene.

Outflow has improved leaps and bounds, freezing cold tops shooting over/near the center.

It's going to be an interesting night tonight to say the least

[skillz305]

Surprised to see watches go up here in Martin county but I guess this is going to be an enormous storm in size. I guess we will see where it's heading tomorrow and if those will be dropped or upgrades to warnings.

I hope all those to my north and west and finishing their preps or beginning their evacuations. Helene might not look like much at the moment but 24 hours from now she will likely be a hurricane and the window for evacuations and preps will be closing at that point.

Indian River here. Was surprised to see the "TS Watch" at 5pm as well.

[eastcoastFL]

They seem pretty confident with predicting the panhandle/big bend area as landfall.(no warnings for tampa coast) I'm expecting where I'm on the west coast, north of Tampa to probably get winds equal to what we get after a cold front comes by, so i don't think I'll be doing much more than unless something changes tomorrow. Luckily i do live a little further inland from the beach.

There are warnings up and down the West Coast and watches on the East Coast from Martin county to Central GA. If you're north of Tampa you might want to stay tuned and start your hurricane preparations tonight. Get water and fuel at the very least.

[eastcoastFL]

Surprised to see watches go up here in Martin county but I guess this is going to be an enormous storm in size. I guess we will see where it's heading tomorrow and if those will be dropped or upgrades to warnings.

I hope all those to my north and west and finishing their preps or beginning their evacuations. Helene might not look like much at the moment but 24 hours from now she will likely be a hurricane and the window for evacuations and preps will be closing at that point.

Indian River here. Was surprised to see the "TS Watch" at 5pm as well.

I was just looking at the Melbourne NWS page. I guess the watches are just for the coastal areas and inland and western parts of the treasure Coast are in warnings.

[Frank P]

Once the area around west and southwest of the center circled in blue fills in its show time, convection in the red area is doing its part.

[aspen]

We’ve got a pair of recon planes en route to Helene. Interested to see if the gradual improvement on visible has translated to any appreciable deepening.

[Zonacane]

Once the area around west and southwest of the center circled in blue fills in its show time, convection in the red area is doing its part.
https://i.ibb.co/TtZ13kF/goes16-g16meso1-band02-20240924213128.png

You can see towers going up on that band on the leading edge of the area you marked. Won’t be long until that wraps in

[skillz305]

Surprised to see watches go up here in Martin county but I guess this is going to be an enormous storm in size. I guess we will see where it's heading tomorrow and if those will be dropped or upgrades to warnings.

I hope all those to my north and west and finishing their preps or beginning their evacuations. Helene might not look like much at the moment but 24 hours from now she will likely be a hurricane and the window for evacuations and preps will be closing at that point.

Indian River here. Was surprised to see the "TS Watch" at 5pm as well.

I was just looking at the Melbourne NWS page. I guess the watches are just for the coastal areas and inland and western parts of the treasure Coast are in warnings.

If you use Ventusky, it shows Central FL getting gusts of 60mph on thursday afternoon, and thats with a big bend landfall... Crazy

[eastcoastFL]

Winds are spiking and pressure is plummeting at buoy
42056. Down to 994mb

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[longhorn2004]

What is the steering mechanism? We have a cold front moving in from the northwest here in Texas.

[Ubuntwo]

We’ve got a pair of recon planes en route to Helene. Interested to see if the gradual improvement on visible has translated to any appreciable deepening.

We already have a buoy reporting a pressure of 995.3mb with a 17 knot wind, so it has absolutely deepened and the pressure is still dropping.

[Blown Away]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 19.7N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 20.4N 86.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

Helene supposed to pass 20.4 an 86.0 in 12 hours, IMO still chugging away NNW...

[Pipelines182]

They seem pretty confident with predicting the panhandle/big bend area as landfall.(no warnings for tampa coast) I'm expecting where I'm on the west coast, north of Tampa to probably get winds equal to what we get after a cold front comes by, so i don't think I'll be doing much more than unless something changes tomorrow. Luckily i do live a little further inland from the beach.

A cold front?..there is a hurricane warning from Anclote River (Pinellas-Pasco Border) north which includes Pasco, Hernando and Citrus Counties and a tropical storm warning for Tampa Bay. There is a storm surge warning for Tampa Bay of 5-8 feet. There is a storm surge warning for the coast from Anclote River north of 6-10 feet.

I guess you could argue the storm of the century in 1993 was technically a cold front when it rolled through Tampa lol

[eastcoastFL]

Indian River here. Was surprised to see the "TS Watch" at 5pm as well.

I was just looking at the Melbourne NWS page. I guess the watches are just for the coastal areas and inland and western parts of the treasure Coast are in warnings.

If you use Ventusky, it shows Central FL getting gusts of 60mph on thursday afternoon, and thats with a big bend landfall... Crazy

Highest winds on my local forecast are Thursday afternoon around 1pm at 30mph w. 50mph gusts. So I guess that has the potential for TS conditions.

[MJGarrison]

Since we’re dealing with the 90th percentile in size, I would imagine that a drop in pressure would not necessarily correlate to the same windspeed increase as it would for a smaller storm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[grapealcoholic]

993.9

free fall

[Zonacane]

Since we’re dealing with the 90th percentile in size, I would imagine that a drop in pressure would not necessarily correlate to the same windspeed increase as it would for a smaller storm.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Depends on the size of the core.