ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

Good mesoscale loop of Beryl on College of DuPage site. You can see banding structures in the eye.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-truecolor-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Nuno]

What's the thoughts once Beryl hits 65W and is a little further away from SA?I am thinking the she may expand some?

There are two main reasons/ways a hurricane expands. The first would occur during an eyewall replacement cycle, but that's generally a temporary expansion. The primary way a hurricane expands is after significant land interaction, like crossing the Yucatan when the core is severely disrupted.

Interesting, always thought that the more mature a cyclone is, later in the life cycle, you typically seen the EWRCs expand the eye size and thus the extent of hurricane and TS winds even without the major land disruption.

[InfernoFlameCat]

950mb cat 5 would be wild. The presentation of the storm suggests 930mb but the pressure is so high. 130 knots seems reasonable here.

[Ian2401]

FL winds are only about ~135kts in that pass, and plane is flying at ~700mb. no way those SFMR readings are accurate. they also coincide with a massive rain rate spike (80 mm/hr!)

140mph is the right intensity for it to be at right now

[Hurricane2022]

[ScottNAtlanta]

FL winds are only about ~135kts in that pass, and plane is flying at ~700mb. no way those SFMR readings are accurate. they also coincide with a massive rain rate spike (80 mm/hr!)

140mph is the right intensity for it to be at right now

ONLY 135kts wow

[Zonacane]

Pressure gradient on the northern side must crazy for SFMR like that.

[Stellar]

Live feed from Grenada: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuZ2AOwWHSg

The studio lost AC power and is now running on battery backup, but they're keeping up the live commentary.

[bg1]

SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

[zzzh]

SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

[NotoSans]

NHC says 130kt.

[Michele B]

So when did we start measuring and recording intensity with technology that is similar to what we use today? 1960s? 1970s. Have we always investigated storms this far away?

Official hurricane records go back to 1851 many of them are based on ship records and early meteorological records which are meticulously kept. Much of the data has been refined over the years from reanalyses done by HURDAT. There is an argument that The Great Hurricane of 1780 would be the strongest in the general area but we don't have any particularly good meteorological records on how strong it actually was.

Well, that is sort of an apples to oranges comparison (on the ground reports from landfall areas, etc). How far back can we make legitimate comparisons? Started flying in post WWII with much cruder instruments, I assume good satellite came a couple of decades later along with the dropsondes?

I'm going to assume that barometric pressures were the only thing that could be accurately measured going back to the 1800's or so. So if we looked at records from as far back as then, we could only estimate, or extrapolate the strength of those storms.

[Michele B]

Should be making landfall on Carriacou in the next minutes. Beryl will be the most intense hurricane to hit the Southern Windwards since records have began.

Oh, my. I hope they've been properly warned/prepared for this monster.

[MarioProtVI]

SUMMARY OF 1110 AM AST...1510 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 61.5W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

I have no words. Truly a historic storm.

[zzzh]

I still think SFMR is questionable (near shallow water). 120-125kt is probably better

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

 https://x.com/bclemms/status/1807792349822468322



 https://x.com/bclemms/status/1807789345958469865

[kevin]

130 kt, 950 mb seems like a reasonable blend of the available data. This also makes it the 3rd strongest landfall by wind speed east of Puerto Rico (and the first C4/5 landfall in that region before August). The only stronger ones are Irma and Maria.

[Stormlover70]

How do I post a Pic from my phone?

[zal0phus]

Surely the first of many retirements this season. Hopefully the islands come out of this one in decent shape. I have nothing to say.