ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

130 kt, 950 mb seems like a reasonable blend of the available data. This also makes it the 3rd strongest landfall by wind speed east of Puerto Rico (and the first C4/5 landfall in that region before August). The only stronger ones are Irma and Maria.

130 is a reasonable blend of the available data. But is the data reliable?

[tolakram]

How do I post a Pic from my phone?

This is not the place or the time to ask.

[salescall]

I was just there for a week on a sailing trip through the islands. Beautiful people and country. I can't imagine what they are going through right now. We spent one night in Salt Whistle Bay. I can only imagine that the storm surge there is beyond intense. Thoughts and prayers going out for sure.

[LarryWx]

Thankfully it is moving along at a pretty fast clip of 20 mph thus shortening the duration of effects on the Windwards somewhat.

[aspen]

130 kt, 950 mb seems like a reasonable blend of the available data. This also makes it the 3rd strongest landfall by wind speed east of Puerto Rico (and the first C4/5 landfall in that region before August). The only stronger ones are Irma and Maria.

130 is a reasonable blend of the available data. But is the data reliable?

There was an earlier eyewall drop that found 130-135 kt surface winds, which suggests those 130-135 kt SFMR readings are probably mostly reliable. I’m suspicious of that Cat 5 SFMR reading, though. Seems like recon is gearing up for another pass, which could clarify how close Beryl is to Cat 5 status.

[kevin]

Recon travelling east, are they going for a 4th pass?

[LearnedHat]

How do I post a Pic from my phone?

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[zzzh]

130 kt, 950 mb seems like a reasonable blend of the available data. This also makes it the 3rd strongest landfall by wind speed east of Puerto Rico (and the first C4/5 landfall in that region before August). The only stronger ones are Irma and Maria.

130 is a reasonable blend of the available data. But is the data reliable?

There was an earlier eyewall drop that found 130-135 kt surface winds, which suggests those 130-135 kt SFMR readings are probably mostly reliable. I’m suspicious of that Cat 5 SFMR reading, though. Seems like recon is gearing up for another pass, which could clarify how close Beryl is to Cat 5 status.

Dropsonde measures instantaneous winds, usually needs to be converted by some factor to 1 min sustained wind, though I don't know the exact conversion.

[Javlin]

Thankfully it is moving along at a pretty fast clip of 20 mph thus shortening the duration of effects on the Windwards somewhat.

That;s a valid point that they will not have to endure hours of pounding a blessing in itself.

[cycloneye]

Beryl keeps breaking records.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1807797414847217742

[kevin]

W-ring is now nearly complete, only a little ragged on the eastern side. A cat 5 seems so outlandish for the time period/region that I'd bet against it because of statistics, but as far as I can see Beryl still seems to be strengthening.

[xironman]

W-ring is now nearly complete, only a little ragged on the eastern side. A cat 5 seems so outlandish for the time period/region that I'd bet against it because of statistics, but as far as I can see Beryl still seems to be strengthening.

10 mb in 3.5 hours, no signs of slowing down.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Beryl now entering the Eastern Caribbean, near Category 5 status.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Storm seems to be peaking. We would need more vigorous convection in the eyewall to keep the intensification going up IMO.

[mpic]

Those islands are so small and can't imagine the storm surge!

[Powellrm]

As I posted earlier, thank god this is moving a quite the pace. I wonder how much will be mitigated due to the fast moving nature of this storm. Maybe that will be a silver lining in a bad situation.

[Kazmit]

Eye is looking slightly ragged after passing over Carriacou. Probably peaking. I wonder if it got pretty close to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) given the ocean heat content.

[MGC]

Those islands are so small and can't imagine the storm surge!

Carriacou Island has peaks up to 600 feet. I imagine at that elevation experienced higher winds than at 10 meters. Several of the outer islands are likely in tatters after enduring the eyewall.

[mpic]

Those islands are so small and can't imagine the storm surge!

Carriacou Island has peaks up to 600 feet. I imagine at that elevation experienced higher winds than at 10 meters. Several of the outer islands are likely in tatters after enduring the eyewall.

That's all well and good, but are there any solid structures up and away from the beach? That's what concerns me.

[Sambucol2024]

As Beryl grows in intensity, what effect, if any, will the high have on its track?