ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

951.3 mb
(~ 28.10 inHg)

[cheezyWXguy]

Hm, so I see the floor the has dropped out. Uh, wow.

[REDHurricane]

https://i.imgur.com/g7LFIIc.png

Just your typical 20mb+ drop between advisories, no big deal

[eastcoastFL]

Am I Reading these VDMs right??! 951 111kts?

[ColdMiser123]

100 kt is the most reasonable intensity, based on that pass.

[eastcoastFL]

100 kt is the most reasonable intensity, based on that pass.

That’s a bit better, thanks.

[kevin]

Based on the last measurements by the previous recon plane, Milton has been deepening by roughly 4.3 mb/hr. Considering that the pinhole only formed a few hours ago I'd argue that at first strengthening was more gradual and that it only exploded 2 hours ago. I wouldn't be surprised if we find a deepening rate of 6 - 8 mb/hr during these recon passes.

[WaveBreaking]

what did I just wake up to…

[FLpanhandle91]

Great time to have recon in there.

[Blown Away]

How far S of the track does Milton have to go before it changes down the road near Florida?

[Michele B]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

I thought there was supposed to be all kinds of wicked shear to the north of the storm that was going to blow it to smithereens? Or at least keep it from getting too strong.

Why isn't the shear having an effect on Milton? Well, to answer my own question, I guess it sort of is, on the NW side only.

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

A ~20 mb drop in pressure in just 6 hours is crazy!
The GOM keeps amazing us this season!

[xironman]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

I thought there was supposed to be all kinds of wicked shear to the north of the storm that was going to blow it to smithereens? Or at least keep it from getting too strong.

Why isn't the shear having an effect on Milton? Well, to answer my own question, I guess it sort of is, on the NW side only.

I know this belongs in the models thread, but it answers the question. Strong shear starts in 48 hours

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168

SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 12 12 17 26 26 38 41 49 51 54 54 57 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 6 6 4 3 6 7 1 5 9 11 5 4 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 207 201 184 181 195 190 207 206 223 230 239 232 238 232 227 N/A N/A

[cheezyWXguy]

A ~20 mb drop in pressure in just 6 hours is crazy!
The GOM keeps amazing us this season!

And a 40kt increase in FL winds in the northern eyewall

[eastcoastFL]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/hvbj51tn/goes16-ir-14-L-202410070917.gif [/url]

How far S of the track does Milton have to go before it changes down the road near Florida?

Is he south of track right now? Once he feels the trough the NE run is supposed to be pretty sharp. So as always timing will be key.

[ColdMiser123]

Drop supports 954 mb. All the hurricane models were much weaker than observed in the short-term. Pretty remarkable.

[NDG]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/hvbj51tn/goes16-ir-14-L-202410070917.gif [/url]

How far S of the track does Milton have to go before it changes down the road near Florida?

According to the latest 06z HMON & HAFS-A which did a good job of seeing Milton getting below of 22nd latitude is going start moving more east later this morning then ENE this afternoon.

[eastcoastFL]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

I thought there was supposed to be all kinds of wicked shear to the north of the storm that was going to blow it to smithereens? Or at least keep it from getting too strong.

Why isn't the shear having an effect on Milton? Well, to answer my own question, I guess it sort of is, on the NW side only.

That's not supposed to happen for two more days. It's all systems go until close to landfall. I'm not counting on it but I hope it plays out that way.

[FLpanhandle91]

Despite the projected weakening before landfall, Milton's intensification this quickly will unfortunately just give it more time to build up the catastrophic storm surge that has always been the biggest threat.