ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[mpic]

Those islands are so small and can't imagine the storm surge!

Carriacou Island has peaks up to 600 feet. I imagine at that elevation experienced higher winds than at 10 meters. Several of the outer islands are likely in tatters after enduring the eyewall.

That's all well and good, but are there any solid structures up and away from the beach? That's what concerns me. Carriacou Island is only like 12-13 square miles in size.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye is looking slightly ragged after passing over Carriacou. Probably peaking. I wonder if it got pretty close to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) given the ocean heat content.

The eye likely isn’t degrading but it has become a little cloud filled along the periphery. Could be due to brief land interaction but can also periodically occur in strengthening hurricanes. Since there doesn’t seem to be any impingement from shear or dry air I suspect this is very temporary

[FireRat]

History has been rewritten folks, 150 mph landfall on the 1st day of July coming off a Cat 4 on June 30... Beryl has been quite a shocker this 2024 season dished out! It's incredibly anomalous, rivaling what we saw in 2005 considering it's even earlier in the season.

Hoping that the islands withstood that unbelievable hit!

[Kazmit]

Eye is looking slightly ragged after passing over Carriacou. Probably peaking. I wonder if it got pretty close to the maximum potential intensity (MPI) given the ocean heat content.

The eye likely isn’t degrading but it has become a little cloud filled along the periphery. Could be due to brief land interaction but can also periodically occur in strengthening hurricanes. Since there doesn’t seem to be any impingement from shear or dry air I suspect this is very temporary

Grenada and St. Vincent do have some high peaks that could be temporarily affecting its inflow.

[cheezyWXguy]

SE quad already has higher winds than the previous pass through that quadrant

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

~125 kt FL, ~140 kt SFMR, 945.1 mbar extrapolated. This is deepening fast.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeesh, 945.1 extrap this time

[cycloneye]

Look at the mesovortices.

 https://x.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/1807813721546174924

[xironman]

~125 kt FL, ~140 kt SFMR, 945.1 mbar extrapolated. This is deepening fast.

LOL, I was going to predict a 945 based on the previous observations. He is not slowing down yet.

[MarioProtVI]

Dare I say this might have a shot at C5?

[abajan]

Look at the mesovortices.

 https://x.com/NOAASatellitePA/status/1807813721546174924

Wow!
At the end of that clip there's an optical illusion making it look like the clouds are rotating slowly clockwise. Cool video.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

1pm sticks at 130 knots, acknowledges 4 mb MSLP drop in an hour.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1807819417801064469

[Sunnydays]

So do we believe the pressure is merely catching up to the windspeed, Or will the windspeed catch up to the pressure if it continues to drop?

[jaguars_22]

This thing is moving 20mph too! I’m shocked it looks this good… mark sudduth just posted a video saying he doesn’t see how the gfs weakens this storm as much as it does! No wind shear

[tolakram]

latest loop


source is the SLIDER download tool: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1055.7159042358398&y=1052.4431762695312&z=2&angle=0&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=red&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701165226&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[ScottNAtlanta]

Definitely a direction change. This is moving somewhere between WNW and NW now
My 948mb prediction was just one VSM early it seems

[Xyls]

I think Jamaica should be treating Beryl as if she is going to be a major hurricane knocking at their door. The possibility can absolutely not be ruled out of her still being a Category 3 in their general vicinity as there seems to be a trend for her to be more north of track.

[Woofde]

It's beginning to approach theoretical limits for SSTs right now. 920's/930's is as low as it should realistically be able to go. This storm would not be possible even with ideal atmospheric conditions most years. Those rocketfuel heat anomalies are making a huge difference.