ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Not something anyone wants to see heading your way with the entire GOM ahead of it for additional fuel to light it off.
https://i.ibb.co/sqw7NkS/bigimage.jpg

this is one large tropical storm...Rita-ish or Gilbert-ish

Feels like Helene would barely fit in the Gulf of Mexico...guess it's just her bathtub

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like recon is finding decent winds and lower pressure east of the center right now. First set of red and orange barbs I’ve seen.

[CrazyC83]

Those new reports support an intensity of 50 kt.

[kevin]

The cloud envelope of Helene stretches about 12 degrees longitude and 12 degrees latitude. That's about the distance from NY to Jacksonville or from London to Madrid. This system is huge. The latest NHC advisory has a 300 nm (350 miles, 550 km) region of TS winds in Helene's eastern half (150NE and 150SE) and considering her current organization I expect this region to expand quickly.

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like Helene's show is really about to begin. Can't imagine what the storm will look like tomorrow morning; already looks like its getting its act together well

[cycloneye]

Looks like recon is finding decent winds and lower pressure east of the center right now. First set of red and orange barbs I’ve seen.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 57kt at 22:54z

[eastcoastFL]

Why are neither plane recording rain rates?

[Frank P]

-90C tower just went up over center. Predicting 987-988 next pass

This is starting to get scary, I'm wondering if the NW turn has been confirmed?

I am really concerned about the storm surge at landfall and all along the FL west coast. I have experienced a 25-foot storm surge in Biloxi and trust me, it would take years, or in our case decades, to rebuild from that level of destruction if it comes to fruition. Your whole way a living changes for those in the surge areas, it's like living in a 3rd world country. Hopefully the great state of FL will respond quickly to the needs of its residents to minimize suffering. I know I was basically homeless for about 18 months living with different relatives then the dreaded FEMA Trailor... Will not do it again.. ever

[Steve]

So if the trough over the eastern atlantic keeps pushing east and the "cut off bowling ball low" (thanks Levi) also keeps shifting further east, that allows a totally different steering lane towards Florida? In my non expert opinion, doesn't that mean what Helene is doing now, could be telling signs of the trough and low? How accurate are troughs and lows? Same accuracy as a Hurricane global model, etc? Sorry if it's a dumb question. After watching levi's video, I'm definitely wobble watching.

Sorry skillz. I didn’t watch his video. They change from run to run but the closer you are in time the more accurate they will be. Compare Fridays 18z pattern at 500mb:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 018&fh=102

To today’s 18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 92418&fh=6

And match that up to the current water vapor satellite which is the closest depiction you can get to the 500.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... uct=wv_mid

[eastcoastFL]

The cloud envelope of Helene stretches about 12 degrees longitude and 12 degrees latitude. That's about the distance from NY to Jacksonville or from London to Madrid. This system is huge. The latest NHC advisory has a 300 nm (350 miles, 550 km) region of TS winds in Helene's eastern half (150NE and 150SE) and considering her current organization I expect this region to expand quickly.

Depending on how strong she gets we’re talking about unbelievably wide spread damage. And if she’s moving at a good clip that damage could reach far inland as wel.

[johngaltfla]

I'm not about to tell anyone what to do, but if you are done with your preps and have to help out a friend or relative finish up preps tomorrow, get a good night's sleep tonight. Stay rested and ready. The 0500 update will be crucial, especially if we see changes in wind speed, forward speed, and of course a shift in direction. It doesn't help if you're exhausted trying to help them and being ready for the next 48-72 hours is more important.

Stay vigilant.

[ROCK]

that NOAA #6 in progress Upper Air Mission is really doing its thing. I guess never really noticed how they fly their grid pattern.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/r ... sondes.png

[TomballEd]

Not many hints of banding features or rotation in the wider view infrared. Big system, yes, looks like a healthy TC, not at all. This probably isn't in a hurry to organize.
https://i.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExZzI5Z3l6azVmNjE4dHkzYmt4NTAzbHRnZXN5dTBseXJ5a21xZnRqMSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/LEaBkR5vuANd0nPYBy/giphy.gif

There is plenty of banding and rotation

Not when I mad ethe comment and you replied. I see rotation now, there was little rotation in the deep convection then.

To me, it is just now starting to get *that* look. 991 mb on NOAA recon would also suggest it indeed has started to get going. 18Z HAFS have about the correct pressure and look like they will develop a bad storm, just how bad, to be determined.

[DirtyDish]

When were the models suggesting this would hit Hurricane status? Tomorrow night? Morning?

[toad strangler]

Not something anyone wants to see heading your way with the entire GOM ahead of it for additional fuel to light it off.
https://i.ibb.co/sqw7NkS/bigimage.jpg

this is one large tropical storm...Rita-ish or Gilbert-ish

Feels like Helene would barely fit in the Gulf of Mexico...guess it's just her bathtub

When the east coast of FL is under a TS watch when landfall is in the Big Bend or WEST, you know it’s gonna be giant in size.

[TomballEd]

Anyone have a quick answer how HAFS-A and HAFS-B models? A looks especially not good. I should have looked at the descriptions earlier, I guess.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Just saw that the AF plane just turned around...is it heading back to base?
(I think they are since they are moving back up to 20,000ft)

[NDG]

I guess the AF recon is having technical or mechanical issues, is heading back to base.

[aspen]

AF all of a sudden turned back at the Yucatan Channel.

Welcome back Hurricane Eta.

[cycloneye]

Breaking news AF plane returns to base without making first pass. Hope all is fine ewith the crew.