ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Drop supports 954 mb. All the hurricane models were much weaker than observed in the short-term. Pretty remarkable.

Makes one wonder with the small core of this thing if the sub 900 model runs are crazy or pretty on point. If we get a other 30mb drop in a few hours it will be close. Cat 5 doesn't seem crazy now.

[NDG]

One bit of decent news is the wind field hasn’t expanded yet. Hopefully that continues to be the story.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

I thought there was supposed to be all kinds of wicked shear to the north of the storm that was going to blow it to smithereens? Or at least keep it from getting too strong.

Why isn't the shear having an effect on Milton? Well, to answer my own question, I guess it sort of is, on the NW side only.

I know this belongs in the models thread, but it answers the question. Strong shear starts in 48 hours

* GFS version *
* ATLANTIC 2024 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* MILTON AL142024 10/07/24 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168

SHEAR (KT) 13 11 12 12 12 17 26 26 38 41 49 51 54 54 57 N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 1 6 6 4 3 6 7 1 5 9 11 5 4 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 207 201 184 181 195 190 207 206 223 230 239 232 238 232 227 N/A N/A

Milton is going to be moving just about parallel to the shear direction and just like Francine it may not do much to it until it makes landfall.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[weeniepatrol]

13/9/4.

[Xyls]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

Knew when I woke up this morning that I thought this thing would have bombed out and I am waking up not disappointed. Models also seems to be still zooming in on Tampa Bay.

Yikes.

[eastcoastFL]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

This really sucks. Let's just hope the wind field continues to be as small as it is. Right now the hurricane force winds only extend 25miles from center.

[kevin]

Let's start talking about the ERI record. Milton was still a TS 10am CDT yesterday (15z). Now, 6am CDT (11z) it is a major hurricane. That means it only took 20 hours to go from a TS to a cat 3. Wilma's record for a TS to a C5 is 24 hours. Note that Wilma also intensified from a C3 to a C5 within 5 hours. While unlikely, this means that if Milton intensifies into a cat 5 within the next 4 hours Wilma's unbreakable record will be broken.

[Keldeo1997]

Mexico Radar

(don't have link, got this from Discord)

[SecondBreakfast]

Will it make a run for 3 tonight?

Oh man

[kevin]

Another hot tower popping up on the western side of the eyewall. The NW part of the eyewall is the only 'weaker' part, but it looks like this burst will protect that part of the eyewall from shear for a bit. It's always tricky with pinholes, we could genuinely be looking at a complete collapse in 5 hours, a 900 mb hurricane or anything in between.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Milton is doing what Leslie was supposed to do but couldn't (in the middle of the sea).

On a serious note, I didn't expect this explosion at all even if as I did feel forecasts could've been conservative at first.

Even if he weakens, Milton's potential surge and water impacts couldn't be understated. Hoping the conditions hinder Milton enough to minimize impacts as much as possible and everyone is well-prepared. Water is the deadliest part of storms.

I blink and Milton skips two categories...

[TampaWxLurker]

Doing it by eye and based on the update location, it looks to be a little bit south of track. How close it gets to the northern Yucatan, and how far/long it stays south of track, is going to be a big big factor down the road.
Both for intensity (if it gets close enough to the Yucatan) and track for eventual landfall.

[Laser30033003]

"A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast. "

is the NHC going to adjust the track at 8 AM....

[GCANE]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are
estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from
the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to
954 mb (28.17 inches).

A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

That escalated quickly

[Keldeo1997]

If feel like we are about to find out what Delta could've been if it didn't get blasted by shear....

[NDG]

Will become a Cat 4 a lot quicker than forecasted.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

943.8 mb
(~ 27.87 inHg)

[NDG]

943mb extrap pressure by AF recon is being nuts!

111600 2149N 09217W 6961 02697 9446 +188 +047 297016 030 026 002 00
111630 2151N 09216W 6962 02687 9438 +190 +049 122015 031 033 001 00
111700 2153N 09216W 6962 02713 9480 +169 +057 110044 049 039 000 03
111730 2154N 09217W 6965 02739 9542 +136 +069 083077 087 /// /// 03
111800 2154N 09220W 6954 02775 9591 +110 +076 056090 092 /// /// 03

[GCANE]

Eye is shrinking and warm.
Latest recon measured 15 nm diameter.
Getting close to pinhole

[kevin]

First recon pass by the other plane: 111 kt FL and an extrapolated pressure of 943.8 mb with 30 kt winds nearby. Supports an intensity of 941mb/100kt though the strongest winds are most likely in the other quadrants.

That's a 9 mb drop in 53 minutes. 9 mb!