ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

When the next recon will be there?

[tolakram]

latest

[ScottNAtlanta]

When the next recon will be there?

There is one there now...it just made it's final pass and is headed back to St Croix

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

When the next recon will be there?

There is one there now...it just made it's final pass and is headed back to St Croix

NOAA at 2330 Z, which is 1900 eastern or 7PM I THINK.

[aspen]

latest
https://i.imgur.com/Bz00gJ0.png

Ah yes, a perfectly normal early July storm.

[AerospaceEng]

I think Jamaica should be treating Beryl as if she is going to be a major hurricane knocking at their door. The possibility can absolutely not be ruled out of her still being a Category 3 in their general vicinity as there seems to be a trend for her to be more north of track.

Yep. Beryl is again hugging the north side of the cone.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

latest
https://i.imgur.com/Bz00gJ0.png

Ah yes, a perfectly normal early July storm.

It happens from time to time

[InfernoFlameCat]

Beryl is still looking better with each frame. Cloud tops are cooling as of right now. The CDO is becoming more symmetrical.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

It's beginning to approach theoretical limits for SSTs right now. 920's/930's is as low as it should realistically be able to go. This storm would not be possible even with ideal atmospheric conditions most years. Those rocketfuel heat anomalies are making a huge difference.

Also, were it not for timing, this could have been Ivan 2.0 a few months from now. The position is eerily similar.

Nonetheless, it's definitely too early to tell how strong this gets. Beryl has defied every expectation I've had for her. The Grenadines are getting absolutely hammered right now.

[Xyls]

The only positive thing I can say about Beryl is this is that hopefully she burns up a bunch of the heat content as she storms through the Caribbean to try to prevent later storms from taking advantage later this month. Hopefully putting no more storms until August. I mean she is already not giving 96L (potential Debbie) really any chance to take off it seems right now because she is such a pig.

[Teban54]

Beryl is still looking better with each frame. Cloud tops are cooling as of right now. The CDO is becoming more symmetrical.

And any concerns earlier about eye disruption -- or even that It may have peaked -- can probably be thrown out of the window:

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also, due to its small size and quick movement, upwelling can be ruled out.

[869MB]

Live feed from Grenada: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NuZ2AOwWHSg

The studio lost AC power and is now running on battery backup, but they're keeping up the live commentary.

Watching the reports from the studio host during that video, the island government was just now calling for Carriacuo residential evacuations from their respective homes due to the potential for extreme storm surge. I strongly believe that call for action from the government officials should have been made yesterday at the latest and not as the eye-wall is approaching the island with landfall eminent.

[Sambucol2024]

https://i.imgur.com/iNxqnzc.png

That 948: is that the eye? If so, has it reformed from where it was yesterday?

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/iNxqnzc.png

That 948: is that the eye? If so, has it reformed from where it was yesterday?

That's a recon plot and the storm is moving, so each drop in the center will represent where the storm was when dropped.

[aspen]

Beryl is still looking better with each frame. Cloud tops are cooling as of right now. The CDO is becoming more symmetrical.

And any concerns earlier about eye disruption -- or even that It may have peaked -- can probably be thrown out of the window:
https://i.postimg.cc/RZJGhXKM/goes16-ir-meso1.gif

Assuming it doesn’t start to become disrupted sometime within the next 5-6 hours, I’ll be surprised if recon doesn’t find a Cat 5 when it arrives. Insane.

[Beef Stew]

A 4 mb pressure drop between the last passes and an increasingly symmetric CDO suggests Beryl is still intensifying. Unfortunately, we won’t have any more recon until later this evening, so we may not know her true peak, if intensification halts prior to then. Beryl is likely on the cusp of category five right now- and incredibly, on the first day of July no less.

Of course, none of that offers any solace to the Grenadines or Grenada, especially Carriacou, where I fear damage reports will be similar to those on Dominica following Maria.

[ConvergenceZone]

What a monster. Let's hope this weakens quite a bit before it gets to Mexico and maybe Jamaica (if it gets there).

[tolakram]

We need some dvorak experts in here.