ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Water rescues going on in Largo at apartment complex. The flooding is bad here. Can't remember a time where 10 inches of rain has dropped in 12 hours or so. I fear with 2 am high tide that storm surge is going to get worse.

Debby 2012

To this day Debby V. 2012 is the most extreme rain event I have experienced in north Pinellas. I have never seen water like that before...or since. Like a bad penny she's back. We got 15" in a day.

[cheezyWXguy]

Judging by radar, I tentatively think that the eye feature we’ve been watching do loops all day has finally co-located with the main center of Debby. Although the eyewall is fragmented still, it looks to be on a more consistent northward track now instead looping. Should solidify over the next couple of hours, hopefully it takes its time

[Stormlover70]

I agree radar is not accurate

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is now down to 980. It's taking off pretty quick now.

[cheezyWXguy]

I didn’t see anyone else mention this yet, but dang, latest center drop was 981mb with a 10kt wind, good for 980. That’s a 5mb drop in a little over an hour

[cheezyWXguy]

Pressure is now down to 980. It's taking off pretty quick now.

Ah, just beat me to it

[KirbyDude25]

NWS seems to have taken note of all the speculation about Debby's motion
 https://x.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1820315276577034556

[rigbyrigz]

NWS seems to have taken note of all the speculation about Debby's motion
 https://x.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1820315276577034556

(your helpful post is) Best response to all this speculation about easterly trend, even Cedar Key landfall. Here south of Perry expecting another direct hit like destructive Idalia a year ago. Give me your best shot raggedy Debby!

[sponger]

NWS seems to have taken note of all the speculation about Debby's motion
 https://x.com/NWSTallahassee/status/1820315276577034556

Yet it clearly moved NE. For several hours. I do not know why this is so difficult to see on a track map.

[CrazyC83]

Wind-wise, it may actually be quite similar to Idalia even if the storm is weaker. Strengthening storms tend to bring gusts down more readily, especially when RI'ing. Idalia was weakening when it came in.

[sponger]

Pressure is now down to 980. It's taking off pretty quick now.

Ah, just beat me to it

Seven to eight hours to go! Running out of time.

[rigbyrigz]

Wind-wise, it may actually be quite similar to Idalia even if the storm is weaker. Strengthening storms tend to bring gusts down more readily, especially when RI'ing. Idalia was weakening when it came in.

Agree, having been through Idalia south of Perry. Tallahassee NWS is showing winds 65-85 with gusts to 95 for early daytime Monday in both inland Taylor County (Perry) and coastal Taylor. rain 10-15. Also say prepare for possible 110. Seems very similar to local forecast for Idalia a year ago. And the blob of convection has been northerly for many hours, despite some wobbles or easterly jogs of the raggedy elongated unclosed weird center (eye).

[sponger]

981/18. Pressure 979 mb

Pressure continues to fall.

[FLLurker32]

Josh Morgerman decided to chase Debby. He’s in Perry but with the slight right hook/wobble he’s heading down to Steinhatchee.

It’s so close to the coast that every wobble matters.

[Woofde]

Wind-wise, it may actually be quite similar to Idalia even if the storm is weaker. Strengthening storms tend to bring gusts down more readily, especially when RI'ing. Idalia was weakening when it came in.

I chased Idalia and Beryl. I'm not chasing Debby, but I feel like satellite looks and intensity estimate wise they are very similar. Beryl definitely had more consistent winds, but the peak gusts during Idalia felt much more intense. The wind damage from Idalia was very bad in Perry, I didn't see a ton of wind damage in comparison during Beryl. If I was a resident, personally I'd still take the strengthening Cat 1 over a weakening Cat 3. That's just my 2 cents as a chaser though.

[Woofde]

Wind-wise, it may actually be quite similar to Idalia even if the storm is weaker. Strengthening storms tend to bring gusts down more readily, especially when RI'ing. Idalia was weakening when it came in.

I chased Idalia and Beryl. I'm not chasing Debby, but I feel like satellite looks and intensity estimate wise they are very similar. Beryl definitely had more consistent winds, but the peak gusts during Idalia felt much more intense. The wind damage from Idalia was very bad in Perry, I didn't see a ton of wind damage in comparison during Beryl. If I was a resident, personally I'd still take the strengthening Cat 1 over a weakening Cat 3. That's just my 2 cents as a chaser though.

To add onto this, I really feel bad for the residents of Perry having to deal with another hurricane so soon after that one. There were some incredible people I met there. I know in general a lot of people sleep on Idalia, but that was a very rough storm for that area. A lot of homes and businesses were destroyed. I still vividly remember a Mom holding her child staring at their crumpled house, it was sobering. The area was not economically well off before Idalia and I know it took a massive hit post as well. They don't need this right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye trying to clear out again on satellite

[ElectricStorm]

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 05 2024

...DEBBY STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE IN PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA AND MAJOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 83.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM W OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[cheezyWXguy]

Believable velocities over 90mph periodically showing up in the ne quad now. About 7kft aloft

[cheezyWXguy]

Over 100mph now.