ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

Quite a gap in recon now so interested to see their intensity estimates for the 5pm advisory. Operational upgrades to Cat 5 with Dvorak alone are rare. Her eye is as large and circular as it's ever been.

[Hurricane2022]

Unless something happens very quickly, like an abrupt increase of the wind shear or a surprise EWRC ( ), I'm sure the next recon will leave Hurricane Beryl with bold capital letters in the record books...

[TallyTracker]

Has there ever been a Cat 5 in this area? I think the cut off of the inflow over South America should stop this from hitting Cat 5.

Then again, June Cat 4 in the MDR blasting through the southern Windward Islands with 150 mph…I didn’t think that would happen either…

[Category5Kaiju]

:double:
https://imageshack.com/i/pnwPfAyzp
https://imageshack.com/i/pmf5fwstp
Unless something happens very quickly, like an abrupt increase of the wind shear or a surprise EWRC ( ), I'm sure the next recon will leave Hurricane Beryl with bold capital letters in the record books...

Emily just called. She said she’s getting a bit nervous.

[Kazmit]

I found this tool for Dvorak analysis.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt02L.html

[tolakram]

latest


source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=1117.2073822021484&y=1005.9516906738281&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=20240701175126&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[TheBurn]

[zal0phus]

What's the ceiling on Beryl now? If it keeps strengthening in the ECar I don't know what could stop it

[wxman57]

We need some dvorak experts in here.

Recon is a much better tool than Dvorak satellite estimates.

[Hurricane2022]

Now I'm curious to know if the NHC will predict a C5 in the next advisory...assuming they don't upgrade Beryl to this category at 21z

[wxman57]

What's the ceiling on Beryl now? If it keeps strengthening in the ECar I don't know what could stop it

Once it passes Jamaica, wind shear and dry air to the NW-N will begin to impact it. That's why GFS & Euro show significant weakening west of Jamaica.

[tolakram]

In this view you can see the shear zone Beryl will be moving into. Upper level clouds moving north.

[ConvergenceZone]

As the Tropical Meteorologists on the Weather Channel were saying, far as the USA is concerned, Thank God for strong High Pressure!
Wish the weather channel didn't have so many damn commercials though lol.

[Texashawk]

Slightly off topic, but it’s so weird to me to be discussing a storm named Beryl as a super-storm. Historically, she’s always been weak and forgotten

[ConvergenceZone]

In this view you can see the shear zone Beryl will be moving into. Upper level clouds moving north.

https://i.imgur.com/HQ1WCGr.gif

Wow that is some strong looking shear! Thanks for posting.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon on it's last center pass dropped a dropsonde that measured 154kts at the surface in the northeastern side

[ScottNAtlanta]

Levi's video for today



Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=HaBJbrV77II

[Ivanhater]

GFS did an outstanding job of being the first to see a significant storm impacting the Caribbean when the Euro and UKmet showed a passing wave

[mpic]

As the Tropical Meteorologists on the Weather Channel were saying, far as the USA is concerned, Thank God for strong High Pressure!
Wish the weather channel didn't have so many damn commercials though lol.

I wish they would go public during hurricane season so everybody had access lol.

[JaxGator]

As the Tropical Meteorologists on the Weather Channel were saying, far as the USA is concerned, Thank God for strong High Pressure!
Wish the weather channel didn't have so many damn commercials though lol.

Depends on where/how strong the high pressure ridge is relative to the hurricane’s position. Same for troughs too. They can both prevent disaster (thank goodness) or if the timing is off, then yeah that would be a horrible no good, very bad day for somebody.