ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

Insane deepening between passes there.

[kevin]

Unflagged 134 SFMR was found during this pass. Not sure whether NHC is still gonna put much stock into SFMR but either way that's an incredible measurement.

[CronkPSU]

"A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect
this change and update the forecast. "

is the NHC going to adjust the track at 8 AM....

no, they only change track at the 6 hour full advisories

they are gonna just update the wind speeds going forward

[GCANE]

This is one of the largest warm cores I have ever seen.
Extends vertically from about 125mb to 550mb

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... _xsect.gif

[Keldeo1997]

Western EW is becoming Violent

[ColdMiser123]

120 kt flight level wind supports 108 kt at the surface. Already knocking on the door of Cat 4 intensity.

[wx98]

Based on that AF pass there’s evidence this is a high end 3 or pushing a Cat 4.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Crazy strengthening. I was not expecting this at all. That is some incredible deepening. Went to bed at high 970s and woke up to a 940s system that is deepening at 10mb an hour.

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1843254239763874169

[FLpanhandle91]

Northern eyewall is nasty.

[ChrisH-UK]

SFMR winds this could be a error in the readings

[weeniepatrol]

[Hurricane2022]

112200 2142N 09212W 6969 02813 9653 +114 +067 238104 120 099 021 00
112230 2140N 09210W 6949 02899 9694 +139 +053 234112 119 099 027 00

[PavelGaborik10]

The kind of explosive intensification that gives me goosebumps, chills.

Good lord cat 5 is inevitable here

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1843249673026556327

[aspen]

Unflagged 134 SFMR was found during this pass. Not sure whether NHC is still gonna put much stock into SFMR but either way that's an incredible measurement.

Could be due to shoaling. If so, I suspect we might see some of the highest SFMR measurements ever recorded if Milton’s incredible ERI phase continues and it doesn’t succumb to random mid-level shear like Delta.

What’s frightening is that Milton is 20-30mb deeper than the newest HWRF/HAFS model runs, and the latter still get it to <920 mbar. We might be looking at our first sub-900 system since Wilma if this continues.

[kevin]

NOAA3 seems to have missed the center of the eye to the north by a hair (like maybe by a few km or less), but still found 947 mb extrapolated pressure with 30 kt winds. The 115 kt and 120 kt FL measurements indicate this is probably around 110 kt now.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Alongside all hyperactive years

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1843249673026556327

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NOAA3 seems to have missed the center of the eye to the north by a hair (like maybe by a few km or less), but still found 947 mb extrapolated pressure with 30 kt winds. The 115 kt and 120 kt FL measurements indicate this is probably around 110 kt now.

You can tell AF309 was also struggling with an eye intercept; very small and a lot of turbulence bouncing them around. They had to do a loop to get a good pressure reading.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/ikey_uwu/status/1843255381721813266