ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Pasmorade]

Unflagged 134 SFMR was found during this pass. Not sure whether NHC is still gonna put much stock into SFMR but either way that's an incredible measurement.

Could be due to shoaling. If so, I suspect we might see some of the highest SFMR measurements ever recorded if Milton’s incredible ERI phase continues and it doesn’t succumb to random mid-level shear like Delta.

What’s frightening is that Milton is 20-30mb deeper than the newest HWRF/HAFS model runs, and the latter still get it to <920 mbar. We might be looking at our first sub-900 system since Wilma if this continues.

So for once, the HAFS and HWRF models are underestimating Milton. God no...

[kevin]

Another convective burst in the NW eyewall. That was the only part of the eyewall that showed some weakness. That should seal off any chance that this backs down for now.

[weeniepatrol]

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

[REDHurricane]

So what realistically could prevent Milton from continuing to intensify at or near this rate over the next 6-12 hours? Shear seems to be a non-issue since the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear vector, an EWRC is possible but the latest hurricane models aren't showing it, unless it goes way south of forecasted then there won't be any land interaction, etc., so it feels like it's all up to random/unpredictable dynamics at this point.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

New forecast peak of 155mph, slight adjustment to the track south in the short-term but landfall location the same.

[TampaWxLurker]

Heading was at 110° at the last intermediate advisory. Now heading at 115°, slightly more south of ESE.

[Keldeo1997]

Recon VDM reporting Hail in the NW EW

[weeniepatrol]

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

[NDG]

Saved radar loop.

[FLpanhandle91]

So what realistically could prevent Milton from continuing to intensify at or near this rate over the next 6-12 hours? Shear seems to be a non-issue since the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear vector, an EWRC is possible even though the latest hurricane models aren't showing it, unless it goes way south of forecasted then there won't be any land interaction, etc., so it feels like it's all up to random/unpredictable dynamics at this point.

Unless he does something similar to Helene and pulls in some dry air off the Yucatan, but that air mass is much more moist now than when Helene passed.

[kevin]

So what realistically could prevent Milton from continuing to intensify at or near this rate over the next 6-12 hours? Shear seems to be a non-issue since the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear vector, an EWRC is possible but the latest hurricane models aren't showing it, unless it goes way south of forecasted then there won't be any land interaction, etc., so it feels like it's all up to random/unpredictable dynamics at this point.

The only thing that can stop it is indeed some random mid-level shear or other unpredicted dynamics. With 9 mb per hour this Milton's theoretical ceiling over the next few hours if it doesn't back down.

13z (now) = 945 mb
14z = 936 mb
15z (next advisory) = 927 mb
16z = 918 mb
17z = 909 mb
18z = 900 mb

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Most of the models are showing Milton peaking in 48 hours. Even if it clips/makes a brief landfall the coast of the Yucatan, we still be looking at Milton being an extremely violent hurricane on approach to Florida.

[Travorum]

Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air
Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of
120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to
around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde
report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special
advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to
110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now
shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours.

9mb/hr deepening, pinhole eye, and hail in the eyewall. Welcome back Wilma. I'm off to fill up sandbags...

[LandoWill]

Not sure what to make of the adjustment north at 5am? Just waking up, are the 6am models suggesting any changes at 11am back south or north of the track?

[xironman]

So what realistically could prevent Milton from continuing to intensify at or near this rate over the next 6-12 hours? Shear seems to be a non-issue since the storm is moving in the same direction as the shear vector, an EWRC is possible but the latest hurricane models aren't showing it, unless it goes way south of forecasted then there won't be any land interaction, etc., so it feels like it's all up to random/unpredictable dynamics at this point.

EWRC is very unlikely, normally there would be a double maxima in the recon data.

[dizzyfish]

Watching local weather (Tampa) this morning and I'm seeing a large blob ahead of Milton. Not the stuff near the west coast associated with the rain today but the blob nearest Milton.
What is that? Will it be absorbed into Milton making him larger?

[Keldeo1997]

VDM now down to 10nm eye. We are going full pinhole folks.

[kevin]

The eye is partially covered again due to the deep convection in the CDO.

[FLpanhandle91]

Latent heating becoming evident on IR around these massive updrafts.