ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Noles2016]

So do we think Helene will possibly be the worst hurricane to ever hit Tallahassee?

Haven’t heard anyone say that and honestly impossible to determine until after the fact.

Maybe not on here, but it's been mentioned quite a bit.
If the 5pm forecast path panned out, whew.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

[wx98]

So do we think Helene will possibly be the worst hurricane to ever hit Tallahassee?

Haven’t heard anyone say that and honestly impossible to determine until after the fact.

Maybe not on here, but it's been mentioned quite a bit.
If the 5pm forecast path panned out, whew.

I know there is a huge concern with tree fall and power outages across the Tallahassee area with this.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like a formative giant west pac typhoon

WPAC SSTs and heat content and you get WPAC systems, I guess.

https://i.imgur.com/g9i9EPb.png

This is a bit ridiculous.

is this super above normal? I dont really know what the normal temp is supposed to be...

I believe so. We’re talking about 90° waters. This same pool/area was part of the catalyst for storms like Katrina and Rita and probably some others I’m forgetting but it wasn’t this hot then. Last July there was one recorded temp of 101°. But that was just one day, I think.

[eastcoastFL]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

That’s a valid point that I haven’t considered, hopefully some northern states will send help to as many places as possible.

[TallyTracker]

So do we think Helene will possibly be the worst hurricane to ever hit Tallahassee?

Haven’t heard anyone say that and honestly impossible to determine until after the fact.

As someone from Tallahassee, if it nails us, it will be the worst to ever hit Tallahassee. The city has never taken an eye of a major hurricane. Idalia last year was the first major hurricane to enter Apalachee Bay in the records.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think this will give Opal a run for her money in the ATL Metro

For Georgia, this could rival or exceed Zeta around Birmingham and/or Opal over SE AL/GA.

Zeta was terrible. It really did a lot of damage here in north GA

[Jr0d]

Not sure if anyone has posted the Cuban radar yet, so here is La Bajada:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[Sunnydays]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

On I10, up in the farrr west panhandle of Fla today, I saw about 10 ambulances and about 20 electric linemen headed East. Calvary is already coming to be staged and ready to go. I'm sure they will be coming from many other areas as well.

[technikal]

Latest recon pass 986.9 mb extrapolated, a drop of almost 4 mb in a little over an hour

Yikes. This should be a hurricane before it hits the gulf, maybe a significant one. Anyone seeing any inhibiting factors tonight?

Waters are warm, there's no significant surrounding dry air, structure looks to be very healthy with banding....the only thing I can really think of is shear? But we're talking 10 knots or so, which shouldn't be too detrimental to a large, well-organized system like this.

To me, looking at the water vapor, it does look like the system ingested some of the dry air hovering over the Yucatan instead of flowing around it, I think that will slow its development overnight

[toad strangler]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

This would be the fourth hurricane landfall on the US Gulf coast in 2024. With all the talk about an Atlantic Basin seasonal bust, This is a huge anomaly.

[NDG]

I guess during the past 2-3 hours the LLC has been meandering around probably tracking to align itself with the MLC.

https://i.imgur.com/5yGEXOv.png

The 3rd center fix was even further sw from the first 2...I don't know what is causing that. It's hard to see at night

The 4th fix is back a little north again in the same longitude, it is doing cyclonic loops is the only logical answer I can think of.

[eastcoastFL]

So do we think Helene will possibly be the worst hurricane to ever hit Tallahassee?

Haven’t heard anyone say that and honestly impossible to determine until after the fact.

Ya, we have no idea where this will even make landfall right now, never mind how historical it might be. What is the current strongest storm to hit Tally?

[TallyTracker]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

The City of Tallahassee sent me this:

CityofTLH update: Mutual aid crews from five states are en route and will arrive late tomorrow. Crews are coming from Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio, North Carolina and Oklahoma to assist with response and recovery efforts. Additional crews will be brought in from around the southeast once the hurricane's path has developed.

They’re having to pull resources from way further than Florida due to Helene. Most of the linemen who helped us after the May tornadoes came from nearby electric agencies.

[TomballEd]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

Line crews from Com Ed came down from Illinois after Beryl. There is some kind of mutual aid system with electricity distributors.

Looking at satellite and recon, this has a better chance of clipping Pinar del Rio that passing over the Yucatan. Might be a straight shot over water from here to Florida.

[TallyTracker]

So do we think Helene will possibly be the worst hurricane to ever hit Tallahassee?

Haven’t heard anyone say that and honestly impossible to determine until after the fact.

Ya, we have no idea where this will even make landfall right now, never mind how historical it might be. What is the current strongest storm to hit Tally?

Michael did the worst power outages, but the strongest eye hit on the city I believe was Hurricane Kate in November 1985 with 85 mph winds.

[Nuno]

The size of Helene's wind field will be massive, and it will cause a massive number of power outages throughout Florida. What would normally take a few hours to resolve could take many days and even weeks to complete full restoration of services. Florida can't rely on the neighboring states to supply additional linemen to help either. They'll all be busy trying to restore power in their own states first! That will be part of Helene's legendary history I bet.

This would be the fourth hurricane landfall on the US Gulf coast in 2024. With all the talk about an Atlantic Basin seasonal bust, This is a huge anomaly.

Oddly enough there's been so few landfalls between SEFL through the OBX compared to the Gulf. Only Katrina and Nicole for Florida's Atlantic coast since 2005. Bonkers.

[Poonwalker]

Looks to be close to stacked, might be some vortices still swirling around.

https://i.imgur.com/Gl41LRs.gif

source: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

Shrimpin it up, a classic look of a storm rapidly intensifying

It looks weirdly like a fetus to me

Alien fetus. Especially in the IR

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure if anyone has posted the Cuban radar yet, so here is La Bajada:

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

Very interesting. Looking at radar I would put the center at 20.3N, 85W or so. However, recon has found the circulation center near 19.6N, 85.3W. Still not stacked, which explains why the pressure drops have stopped. It is possible that the low level center is being discarded for a new one under the mlc further north, especially given the lack of inner core associated with the current surface circulation. However, if that process is occurring, it’s in the very initial stages. Hard to say if it’s that, or if it will ultimately suck the existing llc under the mlc

[WaveBreaking]

Really puts into perspective how large the east side of Helene will be