ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Most recent microwave pass from exactly an hour ago:
https://i.imgur.com/XDDORKH.jpeg

Looks like there is some shear in the lower levels. I wouldn't be surprised if this is weaker than expected, but for now i'm still thinking that Beryl is a C5. Let's what recon will find soon.

[Hurrilurker]

Any guesses on recon data? I’m thinking 140 kt with mid-high 930s

I'm going to say 941 mb on the pressure. Eye looks like it's starting to erode just a tiny bit.

[ljmac75]

Video from Carriacou

https://youtu.be/N7ce0TUdiGc?si=X4JB1Hf_0MUjqtqx

Insane video that was. It's so weird to hear people laughing and hooting and hollering in the background as roofs are blown off and tons of other damage occurred. Maybe it was just nervous laughter I don't know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hlhqkm-tjQ
Here's a drone video of the aftermath. Looks like every building was damaged.

[ElectricStorm]

Unfortunately I think it's a little past its peak, I'm thinking recon finds 125-130kts, pressure around 948mb

[Beef Stew]

Any guesses on recon data? I’m thinking 140 kt with mid-high 930s

I'm guessing 130 kts and a pressure of 937 mb.

Given how it doesn’t look too different from an hour ago I think it could be Cat 5

I think there's been a slight degradation of structure since earlier, but its very hard to actually tell what is consistent with changes in strength. My guess hinges upon this speculation- that Beryl peaked around 20:00-22:00z and has weakened slightly since.

[al78]

Video from Carriacou

https://youtu.be/N7ce0TUdiGc?si=X4JB1Hf_0MUjqtqx

Insane video that was. It's so weird to hear people laughing and hooting and hollering in the background as roofs are blown off and tons of other damage occurred. Maybe it was just nervous laughter I don't know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Hlhqkm-tjQ
Here's a drone video of the aftermath. Looks like every building was damaged.

Looks to me like some buildings fared far better than others, I can see several that look like their roof is more or less intact. It would be an interesting study to look at both the badly damaged and slightly damaged buildings to find out what made the latter more resiliant to the extreme winds. I have a feeling it is buildings owned by wealthy people that are engineered to be more resiliant to hurricanes.

[wx98]

I'm guessing 130 kts and a pressure of 937 mb.

Given how it doesn’t look too different from an hour ago I think it could be Cat 5

I think there's been a slight degradation of structure since earlier, but its very hard to actually tell what is consistent with changes in strength. My guess hinges upon this speculation- that Beryl peaked around 20:00-22:00z and has weakened slightly since.

I agree. Peak was probably around 20z. When systems get this strong any little change can throw them off. I’m thinking similar winds and a lower pressure for the pass.

[tropicwatch]

The pressure is one thing but there are some anomalous surface wind readings coming from NOAA>

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm guessing 130 kts and a pressure of 937 mb.

Given how it doesn’t look too different from an hour ago I think it could be Cat 5

I think there's been a slight degradation of structure since earlier, but its very hard to actually tell what is consistent with changes in strength. My guess hinges upon this speculation- that Beryl peaked around 20:00-22:00z and has weakened slightly since.

That microwave pass casts some doubt on the c5 sentiment, but it’s hard to say. Eyewall is less perfectly round but convection is deepening around it and it may just be that pronounced mesovorts have shown up again. At least one of the HAFS models was showing continued strengthening even as sw shear started to impinge on the core, so, I could see it going either way I guess?

[kevin]

Recon pass (NE eyewall)

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 937.3 mb
Maximum FL winds: 151 kt
Maximum SFMR: 118 kt

[kevin]

Note that SFMR is acting very weird, about 90% of the measurements are missing and are listed as 0 kt. So I'd throw those out of the window as some stronger measurements are probably missing. The thing to use is the 151 kt FL, which supports 135 kt. Let's see if later data can nudge it up to 140 kt.

[FLpanhandle91]

Recon pass (NE eyewall)

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 937.3 mb
Maximum FL winds: 151 kt
Maximum SFMR: 118 kt

Waiting for dropsonde. SFMR seems to be having issues this pass.

[NotoSans]

151kt at flight-level (corresponding to 135.9kt) but it seems like SFMR wasn't working at the same time. Emily's max flight-level winds were 153kt while Michael's were 152kt, so not sure if NHC will pull the trigger here.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

937!! Wow

[ElectricStorm]

Well that's certainly higher than I expected. If it's 135kts now it was certainly 140+ a few hours ago IMO. It doesn't look quite as good as it did then

[Kazmit]

Good enough for cat 5 post-season upgrade. Surely it was one a few hours ago.

[Sunnydays]

Recon pass (NE eyewall)

Minimum extrapolated pressure: 937.3 mb
Maximum FL winds: 151 kt
Maximum SFMR: 118 kt

Thats close, if not a 5 ( not counting SFMR apparently those are flagged)

[Sciencerocks]

151 knot flight level is just enough to justify cat5. If it can find another one or a few more then without question.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go 140 kt with that data combined with earlier SFMR. Possibly a peak of 145 kt at 2100Z.

[aspen]

Of course it’s a borderline case a few hours after peak lol.