ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

If we’re discarding SFMR, would this support 130 kt/941 mbar?

[Kazmit]

I’m sorry did Milton just skip cat 4 entirely? That’s absolutely unheard of.

[Canelaw99]

While the current compact size hopefully will prevent widespread surge we saw with Katrina, it tracking across the Gulf will likely enhance surge in SW Florida, maybe the Yucatan will somewhat block this effect but doubtful as the wind field is forecast to expand after Milton passes by the peninsula. The high swells from the storm will be an erosion problem all around the gulf also.

I really do not know what to do. The models show Key West being relatively safe with the extreme winds(and high surge) just missing us, as Milton keeps drifting slightly south of the forecast, it makes weary of an extreme impact instead of the predicted tropical storm conditions.

Evacuating is starting to look more reasonable by the hour for myself and many others in the lower Florida Keys.

Unlike the other storms we go brushed with, most lower keys/Key West residents are extremely concerned about Milton, especially those who were there for Wilma..

You could always look at evacuating to our area here in Homestead/S Miami area. Not too far from KW but far enough from surge and all.

[Jr0d]

100% at least a 130 knot Category 4 based on that pass. SFMR might be high-biased due to shoaling.

That area of the Gulf is deep....I doubt shoaling would be an issue, though SFMR always has some uncertainty, even without shoaling or flagged readings.

[GCANE]

Looks like NOAA took a minute to get their minds right before punching lol.

Pucker factor exponentially rising

[GCANE]

That lightning is just not quitting.

[aspen]

939.0mb extrapolated from NOAA

[aspen]

Looks like NOAA took a minute to get their minds right before punching lol.

Pucker factor exponentially rising

What’s the pucker factor?

[GCANE]

Outflow is incredible.
Milton is blowing the top off the cell to the NE that is coming from its feeder band

[weeniepatrol]

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...

Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has
strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained
winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data
from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has
fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).

[zzzh]

SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

[FLpanhandle91]

Looks like NOAA took a minute to get their minds right before punching lol.

Pucker factor exponentially rising

What’s the pucker factor?

Storms undergoing explosive intensification make for a more turbulent than normal center pass. Updrafts and downdrafts are hard to predict.

[dukeblue219]

9:05 AM EDT special advisory. 150mph 940mb.

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like NOAA took a minute to get their minds right before punching lol.

Pucker factor exponentially rising

What’s the pucker factor?

Aka you're probably risking your ass gong forward with your next action.

[Keldeo1997]

Another special advisory......

[TallyTracker]

I have family members leaving the Tampa area at noon today headed up and over to far NW Fla area. Is there a website anyone can recommend for following traffic and any possible standstills on the interstate systems that may occur due to evacuee traffic? Has anyone heard if Desantis has any ideas of contraflow? I know I75 was at a standstill in some areas last night. Just want to guide them the best I can to get them out of there the quickest way possible.

Take US 19 to I-10. It will take an extra 45 min - 1 hour but there is far less traffic. They can even take the Suncoast Parkway all the way to SR 44 now.

Google Traffic has been good for me most of the time.

[HurricaneBelle]

My god this thing is like it's straight out of a cheesy disaster novel, and right now we're starting Chapter 3 where it begins "Jake had flown reconnaissance missions for the Hurricane Hunters for nearly 20 years and thought he had seen everything, but even he was taken aback by the ferocity of Milton's eyewall, watching a hurricane go nuclear before his very eyes."

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Unreal... even the hyperfueled HAFS runs didn't anticipate Milton already making a run for Category 5. <910mb seems entirely plausible.

[Abdullah]

The SW eyewall is the strongest, correct?

Or can it be that there's a side that's bigger in wind range but not necessarily stronger?

[Teban54]

Milton, 23 hours ago: (Happened to be the last frame on my laptop before it refreshed today)



Milton, now: