ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 15.5N 76.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 16.8N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 18.5N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 20.2N 80.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 22.1N 82.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 85.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.0N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 27.4N 89.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

C2 peak now.

Wondering if we may see a MH landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.

I am too Aspen. The next update may shed some light on this? Possibly the NHC is factoring in the already higher intensity noted in their 4 pm update, as another member just pointed out that part of the forecast track is intensity based. This is very confusing to me in that regard. So, I look forward to the next update from the NHC, and I think its time for me to listen, and learn, which is for me the best choice!

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think Rafael is around 60mph right now.

[WaveBreaking]

Please don’t tell me that what I think it is

EDIT: nvm I think it’s just a banding feature since that VHT is a little displaced from the center.

[underthwx]

Please don’t tell me that what I think it is

https://i.imgur.com/s03xpTU.gif

an eye?

[WaveBreaking]

Please don’t tell me that what I think it is

https://i.imgur.com/s03xpTU.gif

an eye?

I was originally thinking that the hot tower near the center might’ve been the start of a core or a period of rapid intensification, but looking at it now, that hot tower might not be over the center, so hopefully it’s just a banding feature.

[underthwx]

I wonder will the NHC provide hourly updates? Or will they be at their standard times?

[WaveBreaking]

[WaveBreaking]

I wonder will the NHC provide hourly updates? Or will they be at regular intervals?

Im guessing regular for the time being until it gets closer to either Cuba or the Gulf Coast

[chaser1]

Hourly updates?. God, I hope not. My brain can only take so much tropics data

[xironman]

Please don’t tell me that what I think it is

https://i.imgur.com/s03xpTU.gif

an eye?

I was originally thinking that the hot tower near the center might’ve been the start of a core or a period of rapid intensification, but looking at it now, that hot tower might not be over the center, so hopefully it’s just a banding feature.

Its part of the proto-eyewall. Look for the eyewall at the 12z recon tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1853542702396182758

[WaveBreaking]

an eye?

I was originally thinking that the hot tower near the center might’ve been the start of a core or a period of rapid intensification, but looking at it now, that hot tower might not be over the center, so hopefully it’s just a banding feature.

Its part of the proto-eyewall. Look for the eyewall at the 12z recon tomorrow.

Yup. Microwave imagery from <1 hour ago shows a partial eyewall in the lower/mid levels

[WaveBreaking]

Outflow is starting to expand on the drier W side of the storm since the nearby TUTT is backing off. Reminds me of Helene’s genesis where it also had the problem with its W side being anemic and lacking convection.

[Recurve]

Well, I hadn't looked since morning, and then it got that look. Seemed to consolidate quickly. Hello Rafael, stay away. If the northern Gulf wasn't forecast to be hostile, this would be even more concerning.

[WaveBreaking]

Rafael’s moisture envelope continues to expand

[hipshot]

Rafael’s moisture envelope continues to expand

https://i.imgur.com/hP4hpJL.gif

Looks like Jamaica and the Caymans are going to get some nasty weather!

[aspen]

Rafael’s moisture envelope continues to expand

https://i.imgur.com/hP4hpJL.gif

Lots of “popcorn” convection developing in recent frames. Kinda reminds me of Ian’s early development. We’ll just have to wait and see how long this “popcorning” takes until an inner core develops.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

Watching it here in Key Largo. At least for now not overly concerned, has been constantly windy here for several weeks. Quick passing showers since yesterday.

[Sciencerocks]

[zhukm29]