ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[LandoWill]

Any predictions on cone changes at 11am?

0-15 mile shift to the N if anything

early 12zs suggest the opposite

[aspen]

While the eye still has yet to clear, the CDO is looking more symmetrical and smoothed out on visible imagery. Only a matter of time before the eye clears and we get a T7.5-looking system.

[AutoPenalti]

Are we going to get the A-word?

[Pelicane]

CDO looks increasingly symmetrical on IR. I wonder if the angle and the small eye is making it appear cloudier than reality. Also, could be meso-vortices which in an eye that small could muddy the look of the eye.

[Teban54]

Anyone know how this rate of intensification compares with other storms, specifically going from TD to Cat 4 in less than 48 hours? Or from TS to Cat 4 in roughly 24 hours?

It has 2 more hours until we reach Wilma's record of 24 hours for a TS to a C5 (it's been 22 hours since a TS now). Not sure about the C4 records.

At the rate Milton is intensifying, it’ll likely be a mid to low-930s Cat 5 next pass. If so, it’ll match or slightly beat Wilma’s record.

According to Wikipedia, Wilma holds the following intensification records in the Atlantic:

• TD to Cat 5: 54 hours (tied with Felix)
• TS to Cat 5: 24 hours
• Pressure drop in 12h: 83 mb
• Pressure drop in 24h: 97 mb

According to current Best Track data, Milton's last synoptic points as a TD and TS were 12z 10/5 and 12z 10/6, respectively. If Milton becomes a Cat 5 at 18z 10/7 (which looks extremely likely), it will have taken 54 hours from TD to Cat 5, and 30 hours from TS to Cat 5. This will tie Wilma's and Felix's record from TD to Cat 5, while falling just short of Wilma's record from TS to Cat 5.

I believe these records only go by standard 6h intervals, but I could be wrong. If we allow non-synoptic points, Milton was still a TS at 15z 10/6, so reaching Cat 5 at the 11am EDT advisory will allow it to tie Wilma's record from TS to Cat 5. On the other hand, you could then also argue Wilma only took 21 hours from TS to Cat 5.

Milton's official pressure was 987 mb at 18z 10/6, 981 mb at 0z 10/7, 972 mb at 6z 10/7, and 943 mb at 12z 10/7. To beat Wilma's 12h pressure record, it needs to reach 889 mb or lower in 4 hours. The 24h pressure record is roughly similar in difficulty, and targets are: 890 mb in 4 hours, or 884 mb in 10 hours, or 875 mb in 16 hours.

[kevin]

Here are the 12z AI-RI intensification chances with the current 130 kt intensity (AI initialized at 120 kt instead of 130 kt because Milton was just too fast).

20kt/12hr -> 150 kt -> 22.3%
25kt/24hr -> 155 kt -> 18.5%
30kt/24hr -> 160 kt -> 19.0%
35kt/24hr -> 165 kt -> 8.6%
40kt/24hr -> 170 kt -> 3.6%
45kt/24hr -> 175 kt -> 1.1%
55kt/48hr -> 185 kt -> 0.1%
65kt/48hr -> 195 kt -> 0.0%

[fsucory08]

Still keeping a really close eye from Port St Lucie. Although it definitely looks like it'll pass north of us, I still worry about eastward/south shifts given the angle it's coming in at. How far south it gets and how sharp a turn north it takes are going to be key. Rumor is schools will be closed in St. Lucie County from Tues-Thursday. District is meeting soon.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have family members leaving the Tampa area at noon today headed up and over to far NW Fla area. Is there a website anyone can recommend for following traffic and any possible standstills on the interstate systems that may occur due to evacuee traffic? Has anyone heard if Desantis has any ideas of contraflow? I know I75 was at a standstill in some areas last night. Just want to guide them the best I can to get them out of there the quickest way possible.

I don't know if you have been given this link but this is Florida traffic map, I hope it helps you.

https://fl511.com/map

Thank you so much for your help. Yes someone mentioned fl511 But thank you anyway. I appreciate all the help given by everyone to my questions.

For Georgia it is 511GA if people end up having to go farther north
https://511ga.org

[aspen]

Are we going to get the A-word?

No. Annular systems are far larger, and therefore a pinhole cannot also simultaneously be annular.

[kevin]

Symmetrical eye starting to clear, this is probably the best Milton has looked so far.

[SconnieCane]

Are we going to get the A-word?

Annular TCs are a whole different animal than pinhole eye TCs undergoing ERI. They are defined by large, round "doughnut hole" eyes inside a symmetrical CDO with minimal outer bands.

[Category5Kaiju]

Symmetrical eye starting to clear, this is probably the best Milton has looked so far.

https://i.imgur.com/B2S7cOG.jpeg

Getting serious Otis vibes right now....with a touch of Eta.

[StPeteMike]

He does look like he has corrected back towards a more east than south direction in the last couple images. Should get about 30 miles or so from landfalling but hopefully the land interaction helps keep him from strengthening further. But with a pretty flat landmass there, I doubt it will do much to weaken him.

[Beef Stew]

Satellite appearance reminds me of Eta while it was intensifying. However, this time Milton looks like it will soon have the winds to actually back up the appearance. Absolutely absurd rate of intensification we're seeing today.

[Coolcruiseman]

East coast update: Brevard schools closed Wed & Thurs. Sandbag distribution started this morning and the line is long (live across from one of the sites).

Question - with Milton basically saying “hold my beer” this morning could the shear/dry air being forecast have little impact in terms of weakening on his Florida approach?

[Kingarabian]

Symmetrical eye starting to clear, this is probably the best Milton has looked so far.

https://i.imgur.com/B2S7cOG.jpeg

Looks like the eye is near -40C on that frame.

[kevin]

Raw T# up to 7.0. And note that ADT has been running way behind reality so far, CI is still 100 kt. Average CDO temperature now down to -76.4C. I don't have the record books with me, but that has to be the coldest or one of the coldest CDOs ever observed in the GOM.

Edit: at the very least it's colder than Rita's coldest CDO average, which was -76.01C.

[Sanibel]

Milton will traverse cool upwelling Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's) north of Yucatan...It will be interesting to see if those cooler waters disrupt its intensification...

Milton's churning of the waters itself will probably cool the waters a bit. However, this effect may actually be reduced because Milton's unusually moving west to east. The net movement of water at depth is 90 degrees to the right of the direction of the wind, so in this case the water is driven southward towards the Yucatan coast, resulting in downwelling rather than upwelling. Thus, the water that replaces the churned up waters may come from the north rather than from the cooler ocean depths.

The first winds would be from the south and approach from the west. With the particular dynamics of the shallow bank north of Yucatan this would increase the cold upwelling. The upwelling is caused by the Loop Current pulling the surface waters away from the Peninsula. Something has to fill that void so cooler water from GOM depth replaces it. Milton's south winds on its east quadrant should increase that pulling of surface waters away from Yucatan by adding a pulling force to the west side of the peninsula, in addition to the Loop Current on the east side, and increase the upwelling.

I might be talking out my blind side here but I'm sensing Milton is starting to zone southwards on the models.

This is the opinion of an internet amateur and should not be used for important decisions. Refer to the Nation Hurricane Center for hurricane information.

[Blinhart]

My question is how much of Central Florida will be ordered to evacuate?? Will they do it completely across the state from Tampa to Kennedy Space Center?

[Teban54]

Symmetrical eye starting to clear, this is probably the best Milton has looked so far.

https://i.imgur.com/B2S7cOG.jpeg

Getting serious Otis vibes right now....with a touch of Eta.

Unfortunately, there's a legitimate and increasing chance that Milton may be:

• Delta but without being interrupted by shear
• Eta but actually having the intensity match satellite estimates
• Wilma but without weakening to as much as a Cat 1 before US landfall
• Patricia and Rita but affecting a far denser area
• Katrina but actually going sub-900