ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[loon]

All models do indicate significant weakening on Wednesday prior to landfall. Should be a larger storm after an expected ERC later today/tonight. Landfall in the Bradenton/Sarasota area near sunset Wed. Probably Cat 3. With dry air and shear impacting at landfall, we may see a situation similar to Francine and Helene where sustained wind is lower than expected but wind gusts are 100+ mph. Could potentially be the strongest hurricane to hit there from the southeast since an unnamed Cat 3 struck on Oct 12, 1944. This one won't be a grazing event. It better leave Disney World alone! We head there in 2 weeks.

Being slighty south of Tampa, is that good for them.. or close it enough its not going to matter?

[FLpanhandle91]

I’m willing to bet recon finds a Cat 5 next pass. 932-936 mbar extrapolated, 150-155 kt peak FL.

This is a SE-NW pass so winds will be lower than the SW pass. I'd say it's unlikely going to find cat 5 wind.

RF quadrant for this storm's motion vector is the southeastern side.

[Beef Stew]

All models do indicate significant weakening on Wednesday prior to landfall. Should be a larger storm after an expected ERC later today/tonight. Landfall in the Bradenton/Sarasota area near sunset Wed. Probably Cat 3. With dry air and shear impacting at landfall, we may see a situation similar to Francine and Helene where sustained wind is lower than expected but wind gusts are 100+ mph. Could potentially be the strongest hurricane to hit there from the southeast since an unnamed Cat 3 struck on Oct 12, 1944. This one won't be a grazing event. It better leave Disney World alone! We head there in 2 weeks.

Being slighty south of Tampa, is that good for them.. or close it enough its not going to matter?

For surge impacts, it would be very good.

[TampaWxLurker]

All models do indicate significant weakening on Wednesday prior to landfall. Should be a larger storm after an expected ERC later today/tonight. Landfall in the Bradenton/Sarasota area near sunset Wed. Probably Cat 3. With dry air and shear impacting at landfall, we may see a situation similar to Francine and Helene where sustained wind is lower than expected but wind gusts are 100+ mph. Could potentially be the strongest hurricane to hit there from the southeast since an unnamed Cat 3 struck on Oct 12, 1944. This one won't be a grazing event. It better leave Disney World alone! We head there in 2 weeks.

Being slighty south of Tampa, is that good for them.. or close it enough its not going to matter?

If it landfalls south of the bay, it'll push water out of the bay instead of in. Big, big difference.

[Keldeo1997]

933MB EXTAP

[Pelicane]

933.8 mb extrapolated

[wxman57]

All models do indicate significant weakening on Wednesday prior to landfall. Should be a larger storm after an expected ERC later today/tonight. Landfall in the Bradenton/Sarasota area near sunset Wed. Probably Cat 3. With dry air and shear impacting at landfall, we may see a situation similar to Francine and Helene where sustained wind is lower than expected but wind gusts are 100+ mph. Could potentially be the strongest hurricane to hit there from the southeast since an unnamed Cat 3 struck on Oct 12, 1944. This one won't be a grazing event. It better leave Disney World alone! We head there in 2 weeks.

Some models are showing a hard right hook shortly after landfall where it heads almost due east. Do you buy that solution or do you see it continuing northeast across the state?

Currently, we have it passing just south of Orlando and exiting around Cape Canaveral on Thursday morning. Can't be sure of the landfall point until a few hours before the center reaches the coast.

[kevin]

139 kt FL, 136 kt SFMR (142 kt flagged SFMR). Milton is definitely on its way to a cat 5 or it may already be one, but I don't think the NHC will pull the trigger based on this pass.

[KWT]

That's an absurd amount of lightning going on, possibly the most I've ever seen so consistently and I've been watching since Charlie 04.

[ROCK]

and someone told me a long time ago that MPI map had no sound reasoning behind it. lol

saw that 933 drop...nuts...

[TomballEd]

The weakening in the last 12 hours or so before landfall will reduce wind damage significantly, but the surge will be slower to come down.

 https://x.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1843285416352592065

[Zonacane]

Almost a category 5, will probably get there in the next pass.

[Rail Dawg]

There's going to be 200 miles of stopped northbound evacuees leaving Florida here shortly.

It gets really bad in these long lines of traffic. People get panicky and tempers flare. Gas runs out.

Best to evacuate early to beat the crowd. And while a riskier move have found waiting until 12 hours before landfall gives one a wide-open highway to escape because everyone has already left.

Every big hurricane in Florida you would see the stand-still traffic beginning just past Tallahassee all the way down.

Have seen the best and worst in people in these evacuation scenarios. You don't want to be one of the hundreds at a gas station waiting for a tanker truck that isn't going to be arriving.

Gas stations seem to be where people get the most worked-up with a Cat 5 coming.

Chuck

[Abdullah]

Will 11 AM be a Category 5 or a high-end Cat 4? And would they issue a special advisory for Cat 5 if it occurred shortly after?

[kevin]

Will recon do a 4th pass? It would be very frustrating if recon leaves now, both for measuring Milton's intensity but also regarding a potential landfall in Mexico.

[Teban54]

933MB EXTAP

Eerily reminiscent of that recon pass in Iota that had a 12 mb drop between passes. IIRC, that pass was 931 mb.

Edit to add: "Lightening and hail" also became a hallmark of Iota's recon when the crew reported that. The same is happening here.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Saw posts on the severe turbulence and hail in the recon mission. Keeping those involved in my thoughts and prayers.

As much as we value data, I'm hoping all goes well and safe for the crew. Safety and lives first.

[CronkPSU]

Will 11 AM be a Category 5 or a high-end Cat 4? And would they issue a special advisory for Cat 5 if it occurred shortly after?

yes they would put out a special advisory immediately if it hits cat 5 conditions AFTER the 11 AM advisory

[Zonacane]

933MB EXTAP

Eerily reminiscent of that recon pass in Iota that had a 12 mb drop between passes. IIRC, that pass was 931 mb.

Was it Dennis that got the comments about the absurd intensification rate?

[aspen]

Will recon do a 4th pass? It would be very frustrating if recon leaves now, both for measuring Milton's intensity but also regarding a potential landfall in Mexico.

When does the next flight head out? Hopefully there’s not much of a gap in recon coverage.