ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Travorum]

Breaking constraints, this would be a T7.0 on Dvorak.

https://i.postimg.cc/T1n1cJK1/Untitled.jpg

Need the eye to go WMG to get to Wilma/Patricia levels which so far its been having a hard time.

Indeed it would be, ADT raw T# is at 7.1:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 OCT 2024 Time : 141020 UTC
Lat : 21:32:24 N Lon : 92:00:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 955.5mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.9 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -28.6C Cloud Region Temp : -76.5C

[MGC]

Milton on the way to Cat-5. Incredible intensification, beyond rapid. Lets see how long before Milton undergoes any eyewall replacement. Of course the wind field will expand which will cause the surge impacts to be extreme for the Florida coast....think Katrina or Rita situation. Yup, if you are living in a condo along the beach or home close to the beach I'd be packing up......MGC

[tolakram]

saved loop

[CronkPSU]

So I took a look through the Wikipedia list and there have been some mildly west-east tracks when there is a strong northerly component (Ian, Michael, 1924 Cuba) but as far as heading east if not south-east. Don't think there is any climatologically comparable storm. Lenny would be closest but against not in the same area and didn't reach Cat 5. May have to call this Wrong-Way Milton just like with Lenny lol.

Wrong Lane Milton rhymes better Or Left Lane Milton?

Only problem is that Milton is moving stage right not left

mixed up milton?

[weeniepatrol]

ORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.

!!

[Pasmorade]

Guess I just ate crow. The NHC just stated it's at 155mph for the 11am advisory...

[HurricaneAndre2008]

074
WTNT34 KNHC 071453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY..
...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

[Category5Kaiju]

It's official. Milton is more intense than Beryl.

[Travorum]

At 933mb Milton is now officially the deepest hurricane of 2024, beating out both Beryl and Kirk by 1mb.

[FLpanhandle91]

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW.

[weeniepatrol]

Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite
images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,
and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican
radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall
presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak
flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the
pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in
4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an
80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix
2007 in our records).

[syfr]

it's not...i use that site all the time cause i teach in polk but live in orlando...my normal drive time home is 55 minutes, it is 1 hour and 40 minutes right now...evacx traffic is definitely occuring already

Another plug for near "real time" traffic conditions would be for the Waze app (owned by Google) for your phone . It's as real time as it gets, and provides updated routings based on congestion/accidents etc.


(I promise not to plug this again, but it's incredibly useful for situations like this)

[SconnieCane]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/4f3twe8.gif

There's that stadium effect.

[aspen]

One final AF pass coming up, which should hit the max winds and be enough to upgrade Milton to a Cat 5.

The eye is finally starting to warm up on the latest frames too. Wonder how long before we get positive eye temps.

[Xyls]

This thing is getting extremely close to the Yucatan. It may be close to push in a significant storm surge into some of the communities. Luckily, there aren't many on the north coast of the Yucatan but I would be extremely concerned if you are in Las Coloradas, San Felipe or Rio Lagartos as this goes by may be some significant surge depending on how close this gets.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Cat 5 forecast. A rare thing.

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[WaveBreaking]

Milton is about to pull off what Delta couldn’t and become a Category 5

[Abdullah]

They moved the forecast track pretty far to the north, by twenty-five miles. Now it shows landfall at St. Pete Beach as a Cat 3 just after 8 PM Wednesday.
That would be the worst-case scenario for Tampa Bay.

[Zonacane]

One final AF pass coming up, which should hit the max winds and be enough to upgrade Milton to a Cat 5.

The eye is finally starting to warm up on the latest frames too. Wonder how long before we get positive eye temps.

I would imagine satellite is having a hard time resolving the small eye.

[kevin]

NHC now has a 110 kt landfall directly into Tampa Bay. If there's anybody in that area still unsure what to do, please get to safety in time.