ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[weeniepatrol]

[Teban54]

Eye continues to clear out. Milton's current appearance reminds me of Otis, but with the difference that Milton has way more time before landfall (and more water to push despite the expected weakening between now and then).

[GCANE]

Milton is now under the influence of ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm

https://solarham.com/globald.htm
https://solarham.com/kp.htm

Will this put a cap on Milton’s future intensification today by decreasing atmospheric lapse rates?

Actually, the opposite effect.
Ionospheric heating vertically raises the atmosphere below it.
This allows Milton's vort to expand vertically.
Conservation of angular momentum dictates Milton will spin faster

[chris_fit]

I can't believe NHC didn't update that surge graphic to show 12-18 ft into Tampa Bay. It'll be about 12ft on the coast, but much higher into the Bay if it tracks across the northern part of TB.

What's your track Sir? You thinking North, direct, or South of TB? (Asking from Bradenton Area - away from the surge)

[Category5Kaiju]

Oof, that island just to the north of the Yucatan looks like it's going to take a whacking.

[Xyls]

Anyone else catching those pink cloud tops that are swirling in the blob? Looks like a second eye starting. Craziness.

[NDG]

Interesting they circled around prior to penetrating the eyewall.

[jhpigott]

Eye continues to clear out. Milton's current appearance reminds me of Otis, but with the difference that Milton has way more time before landfall (and more water to push despite the expected weakening between now and then).

https://i.postimg.cc/3xQjVh2P/goes16-ir-meso2.gif

Uh, interesting little feature in the convection NE of Milton at 90W, 23N

[kevin]

Recon is having some trouble on their way to the center, a lot of turbulence. But they're on their way.

[Abdullah]

It looks like recon is trying to find a good place to drop the dropsonde.

[aspen]

AF doing a little loop right outside the eyewall, like what NOAA did a few hours ago.

[mpic]

Serious question I have a friend that’s never been in a major hurricane before. He currently lives about 14 miles away from Ft Myers beach in an apartment. It’s just him and his wife. Should I tell him to evacuate?

Have friends who lived in a 3rd floor condo in Fort Myers during Ian. They flew out before it hit and came back to the first floor inundated with water and somebody else's car on top of theirs.

[Fancy1002]

Did they miss the eye?

[NDG]

Eye continues to clear out. Milton's current appearance reminds me of Otis, but with the difference that Milton has way more time before landfall (and more water to push despite the expected weakening between now and then).

https://i.postimg.cc/3xQjVh2P/goes16-ir-meso2.gif

The anticipated due east heading has begun, just like the 06z HMON and HAFS-A nicely forecasted.

[kevin]

Did they miss the eye?

Nope still on their way, circling just outside of the eyewall.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1843308839690731761

[CronkPSU]

might they be trying to fly those drones around the eye like they did with Helene?

[Longhornmaniac8]

might they be trying to fly those drones around the eye like they did with Helene?

I could be wrong, but I think only the NOAA planes are doing that.

[AutoPenalti]

NOAA AF going in...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Tampa Airport (TPA) just announced no more flights after 9p this evening(?!). Hillsborough EOC advised you to contact your airline if you were planning to fly out tomorrow or after.