ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bunkhouse]

Amateur here. Could someone give me insight into the best guess of range of possible conditions/intensity on the east coast around Cape Canaveral? I have relatives that live just south of there and 2 miles inland and trying to decide how strong Milton will be in that area.

[weeniepatrol]

924.2mb xtrap..

[Travorum]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071540
AF309 0814A MILTON HDOB 44 20241007
153200 2133N 09156W 6964 03043 9888 +125 +040 324071 071 063 002 00
153230 2134N 09157W 6963 03051 9899 +122 +039 327068 070 063 002 00
153300 2134N 09158W 6962 03057 9907 +119 +036 331066 068 061 005 00
153330 2135N 09200W 6961 03067 9911 +123 +037 333064 065 061 003 00
153400 2134N 09201W 6961 03073 9923 +120 +037 331065 066 /// /// 03
153430 2132N 09201W 6965 03073 9930 +117 +040 324064 066 /// /// 03
153500 2130N 09159W 6961 03075 9924 +121 +040 319061 062 057 001 03
153530 2131N 09157W 6962 03062 9908 +125 +038 316062 064 057 000 03
153600 2131N 09155W 6970 03043 9898 +124 +038 315066 068 060 003 00
153630 2132N 09153W 6961 03044 9889 +121 +038 316072 073 064 003 00
153700 2133N 09151W 6963 03027 9860 +134 +035 315074 076 067 003 00
153730 2134N 09150W 6951 03021 9841 +133 +038 313078 080 071 004 00
153800 2135N 09148W 6979 02966 9823 +126 +041 316083 084 077 005 00
153830 2136N 09146W 6956 02959 9803 +108 +042 312097 104 085 009 00
153900 2137N 09145W 6979 02871 9755 +092 +043 313115 123 105 021 00
153930 2138N 09143W 6949 02820 9663 +089 +040 311137 146 133 063 00
154000 2139N 09141W 6945 02667 9479 +101 +052 314142 158 176 042 00
154030 2140N 09139W 7095 02356 9292 +177 +064 296050 116 174 027 00
154100 2141N 09138W 6978 02468 9242 +188 +046 291015 037 101 008 03
154130 2142N 09137W 6946 02519 9257 +172 +042 050006 007 023 000 00
$$
;

Wow. 158kt FL and 176kt SFMR in the SW eyewall, extrap pressure down to at least 924.2mb.

[weeniepatrol]

158 kt FL winds. Cat 5

[Xyls]

Yeah... Mlton probably heading for a top 5 most intense Atlantic hurricane placement methinks. If not gunning for Wilma's No. 1 spot. I expect a C5 upgrade imminently.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Man he's gonna be eating well ...

I cannot stress this enough: do not focus on the center of the cone if you live along the west coast of Florida and are in a surge prone area. With the pinhole eye this morning, we are going to have a unique interaction occurring where the EWRC will likely coincide with Milton interacting with the trough. This will also occur while Milton is over the vicinity of the loop current eddy that broke off from the gulf stream:
https://i.imgur.com/lzjyrSx.png

While maximum sustained winds will inevitably come down as this interaction occurs (an shear from the trough axis increases), the wind field will be SIGNIFICANTLY expanding. This is going to bring surge events well outside the normal spatial bounds:
https://i.imgur.com/jvDkg6v.gif

The NHC 11am advisory paints a very ominous scenario occurring later this week, now is the time to evacuate:
https://i.imgur.com/C15MF0z.png

[Pipelines182]

This is recon’s last pass and the last recon for awhile, I wonder if they’re looping so they can make that last eye penetration later to capture more of the RI.

[ElectricStorm]

924 extrap

[Fun&GamesUntil]

10:00 NHC has St. Pete as landfall. It was further south at Siesta Key starting last night into early morning.

Still going ESE, 8 MPH.

Wobble or track shift?

[tulum07]

Any idea if/when TS Watch/Warning will be posted for Palm Beach County?

[Beef Stew]

158 FL and 924 mb. Wow.

[Blown Away]

What’s the recon center position?

[Travorum]

An even blend of FL winds and SFMR would support 160kts(!), but going lower than that would be justified given SFMR is so much higher than FL.

[aspen]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071540
AF309 0814A MILTON HDOB 44 20241007
153200 2133N 09156W 6964 03043 9888 +125 +040 324071 071 063 002 00
153230 2134N 09157W 6963 03051 9899 +122 +039 327068 070 063 002 00
153300 2134N 09158W 6962 03057 9907 +119 +036 331066 068 061 005 00
153330 2135N 09200W 6961 03067 9911 +123 +037 333064 065 061 003 00
153400 2134N 09201W 6961 03073 9923 +120 +037 331065 066 /// /// 03
153430 2132N 09201W 6965 03073 9930 +117 +040 324064 066 /// /// 03
153500 2130N 09159W 6961 03075 9924 +121 +040 319061 062 057 001 03
153530 2131N 09157W 6962 03062 9908 +125 +038 316062 064 057 000 03
153600 2131N 09155W 6970 03043 9898 +124 +038 315066 068 060 003 00
153630 2132N 09153W 6961 03044 9889 +121 +038 316072 073 064 003 00
153700 2133N 09151W 6963 03027 9860 +134 +035 315074 076 067 003 00
153730 2134N 09150W 6951 03021 9841 +133 +038 313078 080 071 004 00
153800 2135N 09148W 6979 02966 9823 +126 +041 316083 084 077 005 00
153830 2136N 09146W 6956 02959 9803 +108 +042 312097 104 085 009 00
153900 2137N 09145W 6979 02871 9755 +092 +043 313115 123 105 021 00
153930 2138N 09143W 6949 02820 9663 +089 +040 311137 146 133 063 00
154000 2139N 09141W 6945 02667 9479 +101 +052 314142 158 176 042 00
154030 2140N 09139W 7095 02356 9292 +177 +064 296050 116 174 027 00
154100 2141N 09138W 6978 02468 9242 +188 +046 291015 037 101 008 03
154130 2142N 09137W 6946 02519 9257 +172 +042 050006 007 023 000 00
$$
;

Wow. 158kt FL and 176kt SFMR in the SW eyewall, extrap pressure down to at least 924.2mb.

Holy cow. That’s 9mb between passes.

150-155 kt and sub-915 in a few hours.

[Highteeld]

Yeah that's a Cat 5

[zal0phus]

Bruh

[ElectricStorm]

And that's the SW quad... SE quad might be even stronger since it's front right on an eastbound storm

[Zonacane]

Category 5 Milton

[NDG]

Cat 5!!!! Crazy!!!!!

[cheezyWXguy]

Speechless