ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Please tell me more recon is planned soon.

[Travorum]

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

[Tireman4]

Not to state the obvious, but this storm has the potential to be catastrophic. I have a really bad feeling about this.

[emeraldislenc]

Even if it weakens before landfall the storm surge will be horrible! Please listen to evacuation orders!

[Category5Kaiju]

160/925 now. At this point, I think the only thing that would really weaken it is an EWRC, but there are no signs of that happening anytime soon. Absolute beastmode right now.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Irma, Dorian, and Maria

Camille

SFMR wasn't a thing back in the days of Camille, though...

It was reported to have 200mph winds at landfall, but almost all the wind gauges were destroyed.

[galaxy401]

Honestly, if I was living in Tampa at the moment and seeing Milton now a Cat 5 along with all those model runs, I might actually vomit from all that anxiety.

[Pipelines182]

Please tell me more recon is planned soon.

Not until 1:30 pm EDT I believe

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The NHC probably seems so flabbergasted with Milton they forgot to edit out the 250 into 260 km/h. I would be too.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 735 MI...1175 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

[Beef Stew]

160/925 now. At this point, I think the only thing that would really weaken it is an EWRC, but there are no signs of that happening anytime soon. Absolute beastmode right now.

A close pass to the Yucatán, perhaps. Small systems like this can be notoriously fickle, and any little disruption could have significant impacts to short-term intensity. We're just going to have to see how close it gets later today/tonight and what the effects may be.

[cheezyWXguy]

Please tell me more recon is planned soon.

Not until 1:30 pm EDT I believe

If this strengthening phase continues that will be one of the most highly anticipated recon flights in history. Unlike the one into Eta in 2020, I think this one will deliver.

[Pipelines182]

How does Milton rank from cat 1 to cat 5 intensification rate for Atlantic storms? Has to be the record holder or dang close.

[chaser1]

Sub-900 seems reasonable now, and a crazy intensity of 160-165 kt or higher could certainly happen.

The scary thought is if it can close off a CDG ring...that's T8.0 if it has a warm eye.

I would love to know how high those outer edge eye wall tops are? This must be pumping out some serious heat well above the 200mb level

[ScottNAtlanta]

I hope they keep recon flying into Milton. I think with Wilma, it peaked when there wasn't recon in the storm. It would have been recorded as a little bit stronger if they were. I want them to catch Milton's peak

[Chemmers]

I think it safe to say the next recon mission will be one off the most anticipated of all time

[Zonacane]

How does Milton rank from cat 1 to cat 5 intensification rate for Atlantic storms? Has to be the record holder or dang close.

Number 3 behind Felix and Wilma 

[tropicwatch]

Milton is way ahead of the latest:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[Airboy]

Lot of time left to get bigger in size before land fall.

[Odeseus]

Just think that we still have the Loop Current to go through. Ugh.

When does Recon say it is too dangerous to go back in? I remember hearing that for a storm in the past, but I cannot remember which one.

[Zonacane]

Just think that we still have the Loop Current to go through. Ugh.

When does Recon say it is too dangerous to go back in? I remember hearing that for a storm in the past, but I cannot remember which one.

Felix, and also Hugo