ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

I would find it very unlikely and unusual for it not to go thru at least one EWRC during its progress towards the FL coast.

[Steve]

Throw that power fist up for GCANE. Unorthodox but ahead of the game as always.

[Pasmorade]

Just think that we still have the Loop Current to go through. Ugh.

When does Recon say it is too dangerous to go back in? I remember hearing that for a storm in the past, but I cannot remember which one.

Felix, and also Hugo

Also Beryl

[TallyTracker]

Just think that we still have the Loop Current to go through. Ugh.

When does Recon say it is too dangerous to go back in? I remember hearing that for a storm in the past, but I cannot remember which one.

They flew into Patricia. Wind speed itself isn’t the issue I believe. It’s other stuff like lightning and hail that can become problematic. Major up and down drafts can also be a problem too.

[GCANE]

Milton may end up being one of the strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic ever

Easily will be the highest ACE

That's not how ACE works lol.

ACE is calculated by summing the square of the maximum sustained winds of each tropical cyclone (in knots) every six hours when the system is classified as either tropical or sub-tropical. The resulting value is then divided by 10,000. Details of the calculation are available on Wikipedia's website:

[aspen]

Please tell me more recon is planned soon.

Not until 1:30 pm EDT I believe

If this strengthening phase continues that will be one of the most highly anticipated recon flights in history. Unlike the one into Eta in 2020, I think this one will deliver.

That’s going to be the most insane recon flight since Patricia, calling it now. Probably sub-910 by then.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Milton is gonna be up there with the great Gulf Monsters if it keeps going.

Allen (909 mb in GOM)
Camille (900-905 mb in GOM)
Katrina (902 mb in GOM)
Rita (895 mb in GOM)

And it still hasn’t hit the Loop Current…

[ScottNAtlanta]

As an aside...Cat 5 is very hard to maintain and most storms can't do it for very long before either an EWRC or sub prime conditions. Conditions need to be very close to perfect to even have a cat 5. With an 8nm eye, this will have to have an EWRC soon. The eye just can't physically get much smaller.

[kevin]

Of course I had to leave exactly when recon made its cat 5 pass. But wow, just speechless, what a pass, what a storm.

[AutoPenalti]

Next plane will likely find the first signs of an EWRC. This thing is VIOLENT.

[zzzh]

Dropsonde has 925mb 6kt.

[WaveBreaking]

[HurricaneBelle]

Very bit of small consolation is that the Predecessor Rain Event over Florida hasn't quite panned out as predicted. Yesterday was gloomy but the rain was light (I only picked up 0.27" at my house) and it doesn't look much like raining around here anytime soon with the sun out. I'm sure some areas have had more but overall it hasn't been as bad as predicted.

Although with a Cat 5 on the way it may not matter much at all.

[Teban54]

How does Milton rank from cat 1 to cat 5 intensification rate for Atlantic storms? Has to be the record holder or dang close.

Not sure about Cat 1 to Cat 5, but I just wrote about some records listed on Wikipedia 2.5 hours ago, so here's an update with verifications:

According to Wikipedia, Wilma held the following intensification records in the Atlantic prior to Milton:

• TD to Cat 5: 54 hours (tied with Felix)
• TS to Cat 5: 24 hours
• Pressure drop in 12h: 83 mb
• Pressure drop in 24h: 97 mb

According to current Best Track data, Milton's last synoptic points as a TD and TS were 12z 10/5 and 12z 10/6, respectively. NHC advisories had Milton as a TD as late as 15z 10/5 and TS as late as 15z 10/6. The update means Milton became Cat 5 at 15:55z 10/7; let's call it 16z 10/7 for simplicity.

• If you go strictly by synoptic times of 0z/6z/12z/18z, Milton took 54 hours from TD to Cat 5, and 30 hours from TS to Cat 5. This ties Wilma's and Felix's record from TD to Cat 5, while falling just short of Wilma's record from TS to Cat 5.
• If you go by synoptic times for TS/TD but follow the 16z NHC update for Cat 5, Milton took 52 hours from TS to Cat 5, and 28 hours from TS to Cat 5. This breaks the TD-C5 record, but still falls short of the TS-C5 record.
• If you go by advisory times on both ends, Milton took 49 hours from TD to Cat 5, and 25 hours from TS to Cat 5. Again, this breaks the TD-C5 record, but still falls short of the TS-C5 record.

TL;DR: Wilma still holds the TS-Cat 5 record, but the TD-Cat 5 record is tied or broken depending on how you view it.

(The caveat is that if you follow non-synoptic times, you should do the same for Wilma, in which case you could then also argue Wilma only took 21 hours from TS to Cat 5.)

Milton's official pressure was 987 mb at 18z 10/6, 981 mb at 0z 10/7, 972 mb at 6z 10/7, and 943 mb at 12z 10/7. To beat Wilma's 12h pressure record, it needs to reach 889 mb or lower in 4 hours. The 24h pressure record is roughly similar in difficulty, and targets are: 890 mb in 4 hours, or 884 mb in 10 hours, or 875 mb in 16 hours.

[aspen]

As an aside...Cat 5 is very hard to maintain and most storms can't do it for very long before either an EWRC or sub prime conditions. Conditions need to be very close to perfect to even have a cat 5. With an 8nm eye, this will have to have an EWRC soon. The eye just can't physically get much smaller.

If it’s true that recon is scheduled for 1:30pm then it should still be able to catch Milton as a 5 before it passes its peak.

[Beef Stew]

Just think that we still have the Loop Current to go through. Ugh.

When does Recon say it is too dangerous to go back in? I remember hearing that for a storm in the past, but I cannot remember which one.

I remember the last (...or maybe second-to-last) AF mission into Ian was sketchy as well.

[tolakram]

As an aside...Cat 5 is very hard to maintain and most storms can't do it for very long before either an EWRC or sub prime conditions. Conditions need to be very close to perfect to even have a cat 5. With an 8nm eye, this will have to have an EWRC soon. The eye just can't physically get much smaller.

I assume the models predict this and yet still show another peak in a day or so, and a much larger storm. It's the size, not the category, that will do the damage in my opinion. Ugly scene.

[cheezyWXguy]

As an aside...Cat 5 is very hard to maintain and most storms can't do it for very long before either an EWRC or sub prime conditions. Conditions need to be very close to perfect to even have a cat 5. With an 8nm eye, this will have to have an EWRC soon. The eye just can't physically get much smaller.

Very true, but with no immediate signs of an outer eyewall, and considering it usually takes several hours for one to form, there is a real shot that the next recon flight gets in near or at peak intensity

[Zonacane]

https://i.imgur.com/2tPqZP2.gif

So insane to see such a consistent EEL signature.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Wow...14C difference in and out of the eye