ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

[GCANE]

Sure, why not

https://imgur.com/GHyTPaw

Is that big blow up to the upper right still a part of Milton? Looks so weird

Its part of the feeder band where there is maximum shear.
UL winds moving west to east and LL winds moving east to west.
The LL winds are bringing very high moisture (TPW)
The shear creates uplift.
See these many times with TCs

[Pasmorade]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?

Seeing as a good chunk of the Yucatan is flat, at most, I could see Milton weakening into a high-end Cat 4 via its current track.

[eastcoastFL]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?

Chances are probably less than 10% since it has zero support. But we can sure hope it does.

[Highteeld]

Recon may come close to measuring the apex of this storm. The improvement in satellite presentation since the last pass is nothing short of astonishing.

[GCANE]

Just about a perfect eye on IR.
He's going below 900mb

[eastcoastFL]

Sure, why not

https://imgur.com/GHyTPaw

Is that big blow up to the upper right still a part of Milton? Looks so weird

Its part of the feeder band where there is maximum shear.
UL winds moving west to east and LL winds moving east to west.
The LL winds are bringing very high moisture (TPW)
The shear creates uplift.
See these many times with TCs

At some point will it start sucking in some of the moisture from the trough ahead of it?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://i.imgur.com/6N4KWFF.png

So deadly...yet so soft and fluffy looking from afar...

[chaser1]

Lot of time left to get bigger in size before land fall.

Which brings a worrisome question regarding the potential greater threat for stronger/higher inland wind speeds. Assuming that an EWRC occurs and max winds within the expanded eyewall are perhaps 140 mph. To what extent would the structural degradation of a larger robust mature hurricane differ, from that of an intense but smaller and more delicate hurricane? Tornados are well known to spin up fast and dissipate just as quickly. It is the nature of their ferocious yet delicate structure. Smaller hurricanes (Milton, Charlie, Andrew, etc) may deepen quite rapidly but small storm fragility commonly results in fairly rapid weakening. I would think that a particularly large hurricane would be apt to degenerate slower in the face of dryer air or increase wind shear. It begs the question to what extent widespread sustained Cat 2 winds could impact inland Florida locations given several combined factors (speed of forward motion included).

[eastcoastFL]

I don't see any signs of a double wind maxima so far. So I don't think an EWRC is in the mix just yet.

[Kazmit]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?

Hurricanes have a weird way of avoiding land if they can. Beryl refused to make landfall on Jamaica as it grazed on by, and it did nothing to weaken it. And Jamaica is heavily mountainous, where the Yucatan is flat.

[chaser1]

I was wrong earlier when I said it looks like AF is done. They're going in for at least one more pass.

Who said Air Force guys don't pucker.

I hope they're all wearing Depends

[Team Getterdun]

Throw that power fist up for GCANE. Unorthodox but ahead of the game as always.

This is something entirely new for me - never heard of this possibly being an influential part of cyclonic activity. I love learning new sh!t

[TomballEd]

Just about a perfect eye on IR.
He's going below 900mb

Look how warm the eye is! I suspect one can see the ocean surface from space. I was away 90 minutes and wow.

[GCANE]

Is that big blow up to the upper right still a part of Milton? Looks so weird

Its part of the feeder band where there is maximum shear.
UL winds moving west to east and LL winds moving east to west.
The LL winds are bringing very high moisture (TPW)
The shear creates uplift.
See these many times with TCs

At some point will it start sucking in some of the moisture from the trough ahead of it?

Trof interaction will be late in the game.
GFS is showing a negative tilt trof just before landfall.
I think this will cause it to rapidly go extratropical over N FL.
It could dump a major portion of its moisture over that area including SE GA / SC.
This could be an epic flood for that area.

[ConvergenceZone]

Thank God this is a small hurricane, but didn't I read somewhere that it's possible that it might increase a little bit before landfall?

[psyclone]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?

Seeing as a good chunk of the Yucatan is flat, at most, I could see Milton weakening into a high-end Cat 4 via its current track.

Nah it would destroy the pressure gradient and wreck it.. see Isidore 2002 or just any other tightly knotted vortex that interacts with a landmass. It doesn't end well for the storm. This possibility deserves more discussion

[tulum07]

The blob in the NE looks like a separate competing system. LOL. Any ideas on this?

[Highteeld]

Recon just made a turn, going to the eye now

[Pasmorade]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?

Seeing as a good chunk of the Yucatan is flat, at most, I could see Milton weakening into a high-end Cat 4 via its current track.

Nah it would destroy the pressure gradient and wreck it.. see Isidore 2002 or just any other tightly knotted vortex that interacts with a landmass. It doesn't end well for the storm. This possibility deserves more discussion

Good point. However, Isidore was shot into the Yucatan due to a high and stalled over the area for over a day. Although I think that Milton has a chance of crossing into the Yucatan, I don't think it'll be inland enough to weak it significantly.