ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Javlin]

Yup.
We are now in the area of max ionospheric heating with a moderate geomagnetic storm.
Optimum conditions for further intensification.

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

https://solarham.com/kp.htm

I don't know what any of that means but it doesn't sound like a good thing.

I don't think this is settled science. Some people are looking into the concept that solar flares / CMEs could affect cyclones. But there is no strong evidence to support this.

I pointed this out earlier this season about a fella using space science predicted the last storm of 2005 to the day 3 weeks in advance.Their were many on the board who poo-poo his prediction until......if it wasn't for the sun we would not be here now.

[GCANE]

Throw that power fist up for GCANE. Unorthodox but ahead of the game as always.

This is something entirely new for me - never heard of this possibly being an influential part of cyclonic activity. I love learning new sh!t

LOL, I love it. Thanks guys.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

The blob in the NE looks like a separate competing system. LOL. Any ideas on this?

I believe we are dealing with Two storms but I do not have any proof. At the very least an unorganized low pressure system to its northeast that is currently raining on florida

[ObsessedMiami]

WIll the intensification expand the wind field further close to landfall or remain the same? Just wondering if South Florida can have greater chance of TS winds if it remains a 5 or high end 4 as it passes by?

[kevin]

Milton kinda reminds me of Hagibis now. Words are not enough to describe this monster. Let's see what recon finds this time.

[aspen]

Decent chance this will be close to 910mb once recon arrives. It will have been 1hr30min to 1hr40min since last pass.

[Travorum]

IR now has positive eye temps:

[GCANE]

The blob in the NE looks like a separate competing system. LOL. Any ideas on this?

I believe we are dealing with Two storms but I do not have any proof. At the very least an unorganized low pressure system to its northeast that is currently raining on florida

There is a surface low in the NE GoM that is in a Fujiwhara effect with Milton.
It is the reason Milton swung to the SE.

[ScottNAtlanta]

For those wondering what the lines and flags on wind barbs mean

[TomballEd]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?

Hurricanes have a weird way of avoiding land if they can. Beryl refused to make landfall on Jamaica as it grazed on by, and it did nothing to weaken it. And Jamaica is heavily mountainous, where the Yucatan is flat.

Not always true, storms sometimes veer right because of frictional affects of land. Might of happened with Charley. That said, the S motion seems over, Milton not likely to get close enough to the Yucatan to make the right hand turn.

[pmang6]

The 12z GFS, as well as many other models, have this as barely a category two at this point in time (~18z 10/7/24). The GFS in particular has it as 982 at 18z. Almost 60mb off. How can these models possibly have any bearing on the situation if they are initializing so far away from whats actually going on? Isn't getting the intensity correct integral to simulating the track?

Sorry if i'm missing something here and this is an uninformed question

[xironman]

Recon just made a turn, going to the eye now

It would be awesome to see a 30mb drop in one flight.

[Xyls]

Easily will be the highest ACE

That's not how ACE works lol.

ACE is calculated by summing the square of the maximum sustained winds of each tropical cyclone (in knots) every six hours when the system is classified as either tropical or sub-tropical. The resulting value is then divided by 10,000. Details of the calculation are available on Wikipedia's website:

Yes, every 6 hours. This storm will not be alive long enough to get the highest ACE. Unless you are referencing something else?

[Prof]

I am in Archer/Gainesville and I cannot any information on the impacts for this area. What is expected in terms of wind speed?

[Kingarabian]

WMG eye surrounded by CMG embedded in W. T7.5 soon?

[Team Getterdun]

Lot of time left to get bigger in size before land fall.

Which brings a worrisome question regarding the potential greater threat for stronger/higher inland wind speeds. Assuming that an EWRC occurs and max winds within the expanded eyewall are perhaps 140 mph. To what extent would the structural degradation of a larger robust mature hurricane differ, from that of an intense but smaller and more delicate hurricane? Tornados are well known to spin up fast and dissipate just as quickly. It is the nature of their ferocious yet delicate structure. Smaller hurricanes (Milton, Charlie, Andrew, etc) may deepen quite rapidly but small storm fragility commonly results in fairly rapid weakening. I would think that a particularly large hurricane would be apt to degenerate slower in the face of dryer air or increase wind shear. It begs the question to what extent widespread sustained Cat 2 winds could impact inland Florida locations given several combined factors (speed of forward motion included).

I think just the opposite. Smaller storms keep their act together better and longer than the larger systems. Andrew cut a swath all the way across the state exiting just south of Chokoloskee, and there wasn't a tree standing on the West coast along the beaches where it exited for about a mile or so. Charlie buzzsawed it's way all the way past Orlando. I don't know - maybe I'm wrong. Nonetheless, I was blown away when I fished out of Chokoloskee in '97 and witnessed first hand the hardwoods that came right up to the Gulf beaches just abruptly end and then begin again about a mile or so south. I couldn't believe it was from Andrew after travelling across the state (even though it went over the Everglades, but still)

[pmang6]

https://imgur.com/a/4aBGKZk

Heeeeeere they go. History in the making for sure.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

What are the chances Milton wrecks itself on the Yucatan?

Hurricanes have a weird way of avoiding land if they can. Beryl refused to make landfall on Jamaica as it grazed on by, and it did nothing to weaken it. And Jamaica is heavily mountainous, where the Yucatan is flat.

If they had feelings, they probably wouldn't like land much at all, for obvious reasons.
At least this is why despite their destructiveness, I don't really interpret them as evil. (Aside from you know, them only being alive in my imagination)

[curtadams]

The 12z GFS, as well as many other models, have this as barely a category two at this point in time (~18z 10/7/24). The GFS in particular has it as 982 at 18z. Almost 60mb off. How can these models possibly have any bearing on the situation if they are initializing so far away from whats actually going on? Isn't getting the intensity correct integral to simulating the track?

Sorry if i'm missing something here and this is an uninformed question

Tracks are generally not enormously affected by hurricane strength, given that it's a hurricane, so those are likely to be still pretty good. Intensity forecasts will be more affected; you'd expect future Milton will be stronger than the models have had it so far. That said, some models have already had it bumping against reasonable maximums already, so perhaps it won't be all that different in the FL approach.

[syfr]

I don't know what any of that means but it doesn't sound like a good thing.

I don't think this is settled science. Some people are looking into the concept that solar flares / CMEs could affect cyclones. But there is no strong evidence to support this.

I pointed this out earlier this season about a fella using space science predicted the last storm of 2005 to the day 3 weeks in advance.Their were many on the board who poo-poo his prediction until......if it wasn't for the sun we would not be here now.

I think this falls into the "correlation does not indicate causation" category. And as an active ham radio op for > 50 yrs, I've followed a lot of sunspot cycles....