ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

I am in Englewoo Fl west coast. I feel dry air, not the humid low pressure feeling. Dry air in the storm
Dry air is like kriptonite to Superman. Not sure if bombing out will happen. Ya think ?

You may need to recalibrate your sensations. The dewpoint was 80 before our first squall

[psyclone]

15-20' surge estimates in the big bend now. Wow

[grapealcoholic]

Upper divergence peaks around 2 am. DMAX as well.

If it can establish an inner core before that time, fireworks.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I understand why they are so concerned about flooding in Atlanta. It has been pouring down rain for the last 3 hours. Easily 2 inches where I am. The power is still out too
I dont think it will be back by 5:30 like they were saying.

Oh, and fyi I see they they have upgraded us to a Tropical Storm Warning ...in Atlanta

[MarioProtVI]

115-120 kt seems like a reasonable peak before or at landfall. It’s still going to take some time for Helene to fully recover from the dry air intrusion, and it only has 24 hours or so until landfall. If it had 36-48 hours then there would’ve been a chance for a Cat 5, but thankfully time will be a limiting factor to prevent a Michael repeat. Still gonna be a big one regardless.

Cat 5 is still a possibility especially if it decided to crank up faster then expected later tonight.

[Canelaw99]

Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Theyre not just closed for shelters. I'm much further away from landfall and our schools are closed because it's not safe to operate School busses full of children in tropical storm conditions. Nor is it safe for children to walk or ride their bikes home from school during these types of conditions. I doubt many kids will be outside playing tomorrow.

And yet Miami-Dade and Broward will be open. Guess in their “abundance of caution” they believe waiting at bus stops and walking to school will be fine here.

[ColdMiser123]

Drop supports 974 mb.

[Pipelines182]

So the NHC is forecasting Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hours, that has to be one of the fastest intensification forecasts I've ever seen the NHC issue.

[chaser1]

Drop supports 974 mb.

I'm thinking we'll soon begin to see some big drops begin soon

[WaveBreaking]

Holy outflow

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1839050726074360119

[eastcoastFL]

Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Theyre not just closed for shelters. I'm much further away from landfall and our schools are closed because it's not safe to operate School busses full of children in tropical storm conditions. Nor is it safe for children to walk or ride their bikes home from school during these types of conditions. I doubt many kids will be outside playing tomorrow.

And yet Miami-Dade and Broward will be open. Guess in their “abundance of caution” they believe waiting at bus stops and walking to school will be fine here.

My kids go to school in Martin this is the email that went out today:

All Martin County School District-operated schools and offices will be closed on Thursday, September 26, due to the forecasted impact of Hurricane Helene. This decision is based on the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service and local emergency management officials. Wind speeds throughout tomorrow morning in our area are projected to push the limits for safe school bus operation.

[tolakram]

saved loops

[eastcoastFL]

Schools here in pasco closed on friday also, so absurd. The trajectory was moved west, while the landfall still remained the same at 11am. School being out tomorrow was a 50/50 in my mindset, the mindset that it's been over 100 years since we actually had a storm that shelters would be needed for in the county area i live in and i think back then, we the tech we have now, they would have known. It all works out for me, my son is home sick today and the days he would have missed are off anyway, sucks for him though, he can't go outside and play like all the other kids tomorrow and Friday.,

Theyre not just closed for shelters. I'm much further away from landfall and our schools are closed because it's not safe to operate School busses full of children in tropical storm conditions. Nor is it safe for children to walk or ride their bikes home from school during these types of conditions. I doubt many kids will be outside playing tomorrow.

BINGO!

And you are in Martin County correct? I work in Stuart and have been seeing these far flung outer showers move through ... a decent cell just went through Port St. Lucie

Yup, we live in stuart now. I work in Juno Beach and it was pouring all day on and off. Pretty calm now. I'm going to be working remote tomorrow, looks like the weather will be pretty nasty during the workday.

[Lance]

saved loops

https://i.imgur.com/mpKxnqc.gif

https://i.imgur.com/CRduB46.gif

Very pronounced eastward movement it seems. A bit early for that isn’t it?

[eastcoastFL]

The track in the Gulf seems set in stone only thing that could go wrong is if it slows once near Tampa lat. I seen some models that slow it down tomorrow afternoon.

"Set in stone" ... Famous last words. Id probably feel better saying something like high confidence or high probability.

[eastcoastFL]

So the NHC is forecasting Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hours, that has to be one of the fastest intensification forecasts I've ever seen the NHC issue.

In the discussion they explained it as their RI indices show a 90% chance of a 35kt increase. Pretty great conditions out there for a strengthening hurricane.

[ConvergenceZone]

So the NHC is forecasting Cat 1 to Cat 4 in 24 hours, that has to be one of the fastest intensification forecasts I've ever seen the NHC issue.

yep that's just how good the conditions are in front of it. I mean if it did what it's done already when it had to deal with shear and dry air, there's no telling what it can do when those aren't as present.

[StPeteMike]

saved loops

https://i.imgur.com/mpKxnqc.gif

https://i.imgur.com/CRduB46.gif

Very pronounced eastward movement it seems. A bit early for that isn’t it?

Maybe I am tired but I don’t see much eastward movement. Maybe the cloud tops are deceiving me.

[Travorum]

Wow, as of the 5pm update three entire states are covered in tropical storm or hurricane warnings, plus parts of two more.