ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

170330 2145N 09121W 6963 02627 9470 +091 +055 151147 155 166 050 00

Not much difference in the SE quad, surprisingly.

They didn't sample it. Went NE.

[CrazyC83]

Will they go with a full Special Advisory package at 1 pm? The key question is how long this extreme RI will continue. If it can continue even into the evening, we could be looking at the Atlantic's Patricia.

[ElectricStorm]

170330 2145N 09121W 6963 02627 9470 +091 +055 151147 155 166 050 00

Not much difference in the SE quad, surprisingly.

They didn't get SE quad so it's probably a little stronger there

[Sanibel]

I imagine NHC will go to "life-threatening" terminology this evening and urge those in the A & B zones to evacuate...

[Beef Stew]

170330 2145N 09121W 6963 02627 9470 +091 +055 151147 155 166 050 00

Not much difference in the SE quad, surprisingly.

They didn't sample it. Went NE.

You're right, my mistake. I didn't correctly read the position heading.

[MarioProtVI]

Will they go with a full Special Advisory package at 1 pm? The key question is how long this extreme RI will continue. If it can continue even into the evening, we could be looking at the Atlantic's Patricia.

Would be the second one after the 8am one lol

[Meso]

GOES-19 preliminary Imagery of Milton

https://i.imgur.com/Pgo0V0v.jpeg

https://i.imgur.com/DhQOZhU.jpeg

I've tracked a lot of storms over the years, but that's just an outstandingly beautiful-looking storm.

Hoping that those on the Mexican coastline are paying attention too.

[Travorum]

 https://x.com/bclemms/status/1843332887170691089

What is the reasoning for no contraflow? Is it because half the people will want to evac south? Is there a point south where contraflow would be initiated? Maybe I answered my own question?

I mentioned this a bit earlier but after 2017 Florida changed their emergency evacuation plans from using contraflow to using the shoulders as emergency lanes. I'm not sure on the reasoning for this, but my guess would be the logistical effort/time lost in activating a contraflow plan isn't worth the added efficiency. Emergency shoulder use provides 2/3 of the lanes and requires much less to activate. Not using contraflow also allows utilities and emergency resources to position themselves for rapid response easier.

[Steve]

https://x.com/michaelemann/status/1843336981843194151?s=46&t=BuzvkpAA-Jzhwl1m0Dnbtg

Meteorologist John Milton on NBC getting choked up explaining the effects coming for the Yucatán and Florida.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it better that it's getting this strong this early though? as opposed to getting this strong tomorrow or tomorrow night? I only say that because hurricanes don't generally stay cat 5 for very long. I mean a cat 5 way out at sea is much better than a cat 5 Wednesday Morning.

Edit: I'm editing this post, because I didn't realize this monster suppose to get so close to Yucatan, so now I understand. My Bad. My prayers go out to them

Yeah. But the problem is that it’s going to pick up a Cat 5 dome of water that’s going to be moving with it until landfall even if it was to weaken to a 2 or 3. Much smaller storm now but think Katrina on the MS Gulf Coast. It hit as a 3 I think but the water was already part of it.

[cheezyWXguy]

This feels like an easy call for 150kt. Even though sfmr is more than likely inflated, it makes a case for how efficiently winds are mixing to the surface. Plus the strongest quadrant was not sampled

[aspen]

Will they go with a full Special Advisory package at 1 pm? The key question is how long this extreme RI will continue. If it can continue even into the evening, we could be looking at the Atlantic's Patricia.

Would be the second one after the 8am one lol

It would be necessary though. This is now 10-11 mbar deeper than the last official update.

[TomballEd]

170330 2145N 09121W 6963 02627 9470 +091 +055 151147 155 166 050 00

Not much difference in the SE quad, surprisingly.

They didn't sample it. Went NE.

I think they are fuel limited and returning to Biloxi.

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I think Patricia was the 97 El Niño hurricane. We had a picture of this epac system on the wall at work. Quite impressive.

[CrazyC83]

Will they go with a full Special Advisory package at 1 pm? The key question is how long this extreme RI will continue. If it can continue even into the evening, we could be looking at the Atlantic's Patricia.

Would be the second one after the 8am one lol

It would be necessary though. This is now 10-11 mbar deeper than the last official update.

The question is how high to max out the peak intensity forecast? I'd peak it at 165 kt at 0000Z.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye continues to warm on IR, pixels look to be nearing 20C. Again no real hint of a secondary eyewall on recon. How high can this thing go?

[Beef Stew]

I think a case could absolutely be argued for 175 mph based on undersampling and rate of intensification, but without hard FL data to justify that, I don't think the NHC will pull the trigger, especially considering the lack of weight that seems to be given to SFMR presently. I think we'll see 165 at the update instead.

[WaveBreaking]

From GOES-18:

[fsucory08]

St. Lucie County schools just closed Tuesday-Thursday. Here in PSL, just hoping that there isn't any more shifting south or even the due east at landfall motion.

[mpic]

 https://x.com/bclemms/status/1843332887170691089

What is the reasoning for no contraflow? Is it because half the people will want to evac south? Is there a point south where contraflow would be initiated? Maybe I answered my own question?

I mentioned this a bit earlier but after 2017 Florida changed their emergency evacuation plans from using contraflow to using the shoulders as emergency lanes. I'm not sure on the reasoning for this, but my guess would be the logistical effort/time lost in activating a contraflow plan isn't worth the added efficiency. Emergency shoulder use provides 2/3 of the lanes and requires much less to activate. Not using contraflow also allows utilities and emergency resources to position themselves for rapid response easier.

Using the shoulders has it's own set of problems, though. During the Rita evac, the shoulders were full of overheated and otherwise broken down or out of fuel cars. Damned if you do and damned if you don't, I suppose.

[404UserNotFound]

While this is active, where would I find 1-min imagery? Might be an interesting verification between top-of-cloud speeds (through image analysis) and recon data.

(Or others could save it; that works, too.)