ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

VDM from an hour ago, closed eyewall.

386
URNT12 KNHC 030045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL022024
A. 03/00:00:00Z
B. 16.06 deg N 071.81 deg W
C. 700 mb 2662 m
D. 949 mb
E. 160 deg 8 kt
F. Closed
G. C20
H. 134 kt
I. 007 deg 13 nm 23:55:00Z
J. 093 deg 145 kt
K. 007 deg 13 nm 23:55:00Z
L. 96 kt
M. 134 deg 8 nm 00:07:00Z
N. 216 deg 110 kt
O. 132 deg 4 nm 00:05:30Z
P. 9 C / 3034 m
Q. 16 C / 3046 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 1234 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF302 1102A BERYL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 145 KT 007 / 13 NM 23:55:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 020 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[Hurricane2022]

I just want to know why this piece of **** still intensifying???

[Kazmit]

Much to be learned on the way very powerful storms create their own environment and maintain their strength despite all odds.

[TampaCE]

Could the mountains of Hispaniola be affecting the inflow on the north side of the storm? Sorry if this is a dumb question, just curious if those mountains could lead to some weakening.

Likely too far S of Hisp for much weakening before Jamaica from Hisp. Consider this:

Unfortunately for Jamaica, when looking at analogous tracks with a solid speed of movement from the E or ESE at/near Jamaica, I’m kind of discouraged. These storms, 1951’s Charlie, 1974’s Carmen, 1988’s Gilbert, 2001’s Iris, 2004’s Charley and Ivan, 2005’s Dennis and Emily, and Dean of 2007 either only weakened slightly, were steady, or strengthened on the way to Jamaica. So, these analogs have been suggesting that Beryl should remain a MH til impact with or a slight miss of Jamaica.

Thanks for that response, I appreciate it. I was hopeful that maybe those peaks could help choke the storm a bit.

[otowntiger]

145 kt FL and 150-155 kt SFMR despite pressures around 950mbar. Lol

what does that equate to at the surface?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I don't see what I would normally expect to see when looking at a sheared system. Looks like a fairly standard ERC finishing up. Maybe I'm missing something.

Saw a post saying Beryl is experiencing a "merger" eyewall replacement which sees eyewalls merge and keep the inner eyewall intact. Hoping someone can verify

[Category5Kaiju]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmy0sIwLp
I just want to know why this piece of **** still intensifying???

I'm at this point wondering if Jamaica should be ready for a solid Category 4 strike as opposed to a Category 3.

[Beef Stew]

I’m not sure exactly how… but to my eyes at least, Beryl at this time looks like a hurricane that is once again intensifying…

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A few hours ago, there were conversations saying they wondered whether Beryl would even be a powerful storm over Jamaica or after that. Now these have shifted to whether it would be a 3 or 4, and later to "Beryl has barely weakened at all."

I also wonder what the implications of models significantly under-initializing Beryl would be in later days.

Beryl just keeps defying us...

[AxaltaRacing24]

I’m not sure exactly how… but to my eyes at least, Beryl at this time looks like a hurricane that is once again intensifying…

That's because it is.

[galaxy401]

At this rate, the only way to significantly disrupt Beryl is Jamaica...

[LarryWx]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmy0sIwLp
I just want to know why this piece of **** still intensifying???

I'm at this point wondering if Jamaica should be ready for a solid Category 4 strike as opposed to a Category 3.

Cat 3 would be bad enough. Hope not but obviously possible.

[LarryWx]

At this rate, the only way to significantly disrupt Beryl is Jamaica...

The high Jamaican mtns will almost certainly disrupt and weaken it at least while over it or passing it. How much and for how long is the big question. It has mtns over 7K feet high in the E portion!

[Michele B]

A few hours ago, there were conversations saying they wondered whether Beryl would even be a powerful storm over Jamaica or after that. Now these have shifted to whether it would be a 3 or 4, and later to "Beryl has barely weakened at all."

I also wonder what the implications of models significantly under-initializing Beryl would be in later days.

Beryl just keeps defying us...

.
Obviously there are factors that work on a tropical system that we haven't figured out how to quantify yet.

Steering currents, highs/lows, shear, etc. are all things that I never remember looking at many decades ago. Maybe prof. mets did, but they didn't tell us (the general public) about them!

I can remember many years ago, when a TV Met said, "When you want to know where a storm in the Gulf is going, look at the weather coming in from the Pacific on the west coast. That will be steering the system in a few days. I thought that was the most AMAZING idea I'd ever heard!!

Now look where we are. "Steering winds aloft," ridges, troughs, shear, el Nino, la Nina, SST and on and on are all taken into account when prognosticating a storm nowadays....

Huge new findings all the time.

[aspen]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmy0sIwLp
I just want to know why this piece of **** still intensifying???

I wouldn’t say it’s intensifying, merely holding steady despite shear taking a bit of a toll on its structure. You can see from the recon planes how lopsided the hurricane-force wind field is. Still remarkable that it’s holding on longer than expected…and very bad for Jamaica unless we get a spike of shear overnight.

[Blinhart]

https://i.imgur.com/eNvGgdg.gif

Is that Mickey I see?

[dexterlabio]

Do we have data from the recon mission showing that the upper level shear is as strong as we think it is?

[got ants?]

https://imageshack.com/i/pmy0sIwLp
I just want to know why this piece of **** still intensifying???

I'm at this point wondering if Jamaica should be ready for a solid Category 4 strike as opposed to a Category 3.

Yes, yes they should. Over the years, with out hurricane prep, is always orepare for a category higher than they predict

[UTSARoadrunner4]

I don't see what I would normally expect to see when looking at a sheared system. Looks like a fairly standard ERC finishing up. Maybe I'm missing something.

There was an EWRC going on?

[hipshot]

Do we have data from the recon mission showing that the upper level shear is as strong as we think it is?

From that view, you can see some degradation in the SW quadrant from the shear, but not much from what I can see. Things will have to
go down hill soon or Jamaica could be in for a hell of hurricane. I hope I'm dead wrong.