ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

I see this post from Mark Sudduth, is he known as Hurricanetrack here?

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1806114492901716084

[tropicwatch]

Still thinking it is going to have a lot of trouble with the SAL.

[Category5Kaiju]

The signs for this to develop (and that note about conditions being 'unusually conductive' from the NHC) appear a little bit more ominous than our usual early-July MDR trekker we've seen over the past decade or so.

Ok, I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed that wording in their message.

[GCANE]

Looks like its firing a high-helicity hot tower.

[GCANE]

Good outflow
Latest combined IR-Sat Analysis / ASCAT shows it is still a wave but pretty close to being closed off.
Impressive for 10N and this early in the season.

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2024062700, , BEST, 0, 100N, 315W, 25, 1012, DB

[GCANE]

With all the models in agreement, I would think recon will be moving a plane to St Croix in short order.

[WiscoWx02]

Looking good…weird that since 2017…this type of development has happened in 2017, 2018, 2021, and 2023…not that rare anymore I guess

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Something's definitely trying to organize. I'll point out that the ITCZ both ahead & behind 95L is much more active than we saw with the storms that birthed Elsa and Bret. That points to a more moisture-rich environment, similar to mid-August.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1806150089112522757

[Xyls]

Seems we may have some early season quality storm this year. Very 2005 Dennis/Emily.

[chaser1]

Something's definitely trying to organize. I'll point out that the ITCZ both ahead & behind 95L is much more active than we saw with the storms that birthed Elsa and Bret. That points to a more moisture-rich environment, similar to mid-August.

https://i.imgur.com/iSdnRHh.jpeg

Boy, I noticed that too! The ITCZ is suddenly lit. Certainly not an indication that SAL has necessarily spread to those lower latitudes. The other thing to keep in mind is that to whatever level that SAL "might" slow or delay development, might just be the catalyst for later (further west) developing tropical cyclones. Delayed east & central Atlantic development in an otherwise conducive environment = decrease opportunity for recurvature storm tracks & increased risk of landfall.

[Stratton23]

Recurving seems like an unlikely option for now due to the strong bermuda high, the system should approach the yucatan channel/ gulf in about 10-11 days or so, from there its hard to know what track it will take, looks like guidance does show a weakness between ridging developing over the central US, its just a question of how strong is that weakness, and does the system feel that weakness?

[chaser1]

Until we have a defined tropical cyclone it is presumptuous to assume where it will be in 5-7 days, much less 10-11 days. Size and or vertical depth of the storm, or potential land interaction are just a few variables that could well impact its demise or possible storm track

[Cpv17]

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
unusually conducive for late June across the central and western
tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is
anticipated. A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands
while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Keldeo1997]

I'm going to Ft Walton on the 5th and won't leave until the end of that next week. Pls stay away.

[GCANE]

Deep UL Trough currently north of Hawaii maybe the influencer on how this gets steered in the Carib and possibly strengthened in the GoM.

[GCANE]

Latest IR-Satellite and ASCAT analysis showing more west winds than yesterday.
Some TD winds being clocked.
A bit to the west of current Best-Track position.

[USTropics]

For the next 24-48 hours, the consolidation process is a bit complex. We have multiple vortices embedded within the wave envelope (circled in pink and orange), and convergence is currently favored to the southwest:


We can see in the 925mb (low-level) vorticity animation below this branching towards the SW as well, and this will likely cause the orientation of our wave axis to tilt this morning:


The 00z ECMWF model does an excellent job of capturing this evolution, with the most likely outcome being the SW lobe/vortex pivoting towards the NE today (pink) while the NE lobe pivots towards the SW (orange):


After this process completes, this will assist in orientating the wave axis more north → south and is one of the precursors we look for in the consolidation/development process:

[jlauderdal]

For the next 24-48 hours, the consolidation process is a bit complex. We have multiple vortices embedded within the wave envelope (circled in pink and orange), and convergence is currently favored to the southwest:
https://i.imgur.com/EOYjIkB.png

We can see in the 925mb (low-level) vorticity animation below this branching towards the SW as well, and this will likely cause the orientation of our wave axis to tilt this morning:
https://i.imgur.com/bOvfr4i.gif

The 00z ECMWF model does an excellent job of capturing this evolution, with the most likely outcome being the SW lobe/vortex pivoting towards the NE today (pink) while the NE lobe pivots towards the SW (orange):
https://i.imgur.com/q4s0MSt.png

This will assist in orientating the wave axis more north → south and is one of the precursors we look for in the consolidation/development process:
https://i.ibb.co/pzjYNT0/3b4d75e8-90b2-4b6a-b361-7ce030eb7e9d.gif

Good test for the euro to see how its handling the current setup.