WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

Now GAEMI and large

T2403(Gaemi)
Issued at 2024/07/20 07:05 UTC
Analysis at 07/20 06 UTC
Grade TS
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N15°25′ (15.4°)
E128°05′ (128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of 30-kt wind area E650 km (350 NM)
W440 km (240 NM)
Forecast for 07/21 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°55′ (16.9°)
E127°20′ (127.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Forecast for 07/22 06 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05′ (18.1°)
E126°20′ (126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Forecast for 07/23 06 UTC
Grade STS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N20°25′ (20.4°)
E126°00′ (126.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10 km/h (6 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 30 m/s (60 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45 m/s (85 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (165 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 450 km (245 NM)
Forecast for 07/24 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°50′ (23.8°)
E125°10′ (125.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 330 km (180 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 520 km (280 NM)
Forecast for 07/25 06 UTC
Grade TY
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N26°25′ (26.4°)
E123°10′ (123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 950 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Radius of storm warning area 590 km (320 NM)

[Hayabusa]

00Z

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1814627799090798987

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/mscuyugan/status/1814672943747883288

[WaveBreaking]

Convection is displaced W of the center, so it’s not surprising that Gaemi has a CCC pattern rn.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/WxTca/status/1814716606205075736



 https://x.com/CocoasCola/status/1814670489484239095

[Hayabusa]

HFSA went nuclear

[shah83]

Current dynamic models show an absolutely catastrophic rainfall disaster in Taiwan from Gaemi.

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/BackpirchCrew/status/1814911309449736336

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/Sausius_wx/status/1815010637866529075

[WaveBreaking]

Trying to fight off the dry air, but still disorganized.

[Hurricane2022]

JMA upgraded Gaemi to Typhoon Status ( )

<Analysis at 09 JST, 2024/07/22>

Intensity/Category Typhoon

Center Position 17.4N 125.2E

Direction and speed of movement NNE Slow

Central pressure 980hPa

Maximum wind speed near center 35m/s (65kt)

Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s (95kt)

[Teban54]

Shrimp incoming:

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think this storm will become a supertyphoon. It has great conditions to work with.

[Teban54]

[1900hurricane]

Finally starting to curl more effectively now.

[REDHurricane]

Wouldn't be surprised at all if this makes a run at the 920-910mb range as HAFS-A was forecasting yesterday I believe, it's already got that look to it

[Hurricane2022]

Well grab the popcorn folks, the Gaemi show is about to begin.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HWRF peaks at borderline Cat 5 (136kts)/910mb, makes landfall at 120-125kts/925mb. This HAFS-A run seems a little odd with storm movement but peaks at ~120kts/929mb before weakening at landfall. With how it looks currently, I think the current JTWC forecasted 100kt peak might be too low.