ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS with no development again, two runs in a row.

[tiger_deF]

Best looking wave in the MDR since quite a while. Even for Debby and Ernesto their waves were in rough shape. Lots of convection, could be a big ACE generator

[Teban54]

This does look like something trying to become a TC, regardless of what models are showing.

[wzrgirl1]

Well it's at 60% in the long term so I guess the NHC sees something.

[PDKlikatino]

Yikes, this little guy popped up out of nowhere! NHC has it at 60% in the short term and 70% in the next five days now. I wonder what changed from being a low chance just a couple days ago?

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a depression if not a storm! Almost better then 91L but I'd say both are currently deserving.

[Teban54]

I wasn't expecting a cherry update honestly. NHC is clearly going with real-time trends rather than model hugging; big props if this does end up verifying.

Convection has waned a bit in recent frames, but it's Dmin.

[Cachondo23]

AL, 92, 2024090812, , BEST, 0, 132N, 424W, 25, 1010, LO

https://i.imgur.com/3CFcDSD.png

Very weird track

[Blown Away]

Are the days a W moving TW and/or Hurricane making it past 70W over???

[boca]

Are the days a W moving TW and/or Hurricane making it past 70W over???

That’s because the Bermuda high has been nonexistent this season past Beryl

[Ubuntwo]

Are the days a W moving TW and/or Hurricane making it past 70W over???

That’s because the Bermuda high has been nonexistent this season past Beryl

That’s not entirely true as pre-91L had a very anomalously strong Bermuda high overhead as it was crossing the Caribbean. Unlikely to hold for this system, but that’s climatology as fewer than 10% of CV systems successfully make the trek and that rate is even lower this time of year.

[abajan]

8 PM:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
over the central tropical Atlantic have changed little in
organization since earlier today. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during that time while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the
middle of the week, the system should begin moving more westward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[Teban54]

Remains at 60/70, even though the vigorous convection earlier has waned and been replaced by two towers (albeit a pretty big one)

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for development during the
next few days, and a tropical depression is expected to form while
the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the
middle of the week, the system should begin move
westward-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[WeatherBoy2000]

It's now back down to an orange, not looking so healthy today.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's now back down to an orange, not looking so healthy today.

Looks like the area behind it will be the victor after all. Gotta give credit to the models (like the Euro) that weren't very optimistic about this particular disturbance.

[ChrisH-UK]

The problem is with 92L is that it is a 3 or even 4 bodied problem. The models have it emerging for these waves and another wave coming off the coast of Africa it's this that is causing a problem with the models and the on off nature of them, there figuring out which one has the dominance to form in to a storm or two.

[Ubuntwo]

NHC is saying maybe a depression or weak storm in the short term, which there is still model support for.

[Blinhart]

The problem is with 92L is that it is a 3 or even 4 bodied problem. The models have it emerging for these waves and another wave coming off the coast of Africa it's this that is causing a problem with the models and the on off nature of them, there figuring out which one has the dominance to form in to a storm or two.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1919/TYwQDa.gif [/url]

I could see 2 or 3 different systems to come out of this mess.

[chaser1]

The problem is with 92L is that it is a 3 or even 4 bodied problem. The models have it emerging for these waves and another wave coming off the coast of Africa it's this that is causing a problem with the models and the on off nature of them, there figuring out which one has the dominance to form in to a storm or two.

[url]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/1919/TYwQDa.gif [/url]

I could see 2 or 3 different systems to come out of this mess.

Perhaps. In any other year I'd say probable. In fact, while all the chatter is over 92L and the wave further east.... I'm more focused on the ITCZ disturbance at 12N and 52W! I see some level of rotation to it right now.

[Teban54]

ASCAT pass in the morning shows an elongated circulation (which may have been there earlier, I didn't check), and that contributed to 92L looking decent on visible satellite. However, the main problem right now is that 92L has failed to sustain convection. Perhaps because too many competing vorts are around?