ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/VortixWx/status/1853874789867266513

[Travorum]

latest VDM is reporting a ragged eye, with pressure down 4mb from the last pass:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182024
A. 05/18:51:20Z
B. 18.63 deg N 079.22 deg W
C. 850 mb 1345 m
D. 990 mb
E. 015 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN NNE
G. C10
H. 61 kt
I. 051 deg 29 nm 18:41:30Z
J. 121 deg 73 kt
K. 051 deg 34 nm 18:40:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 236 deg 9 nm 18:54:30Z
N. 348 deg 43 kt
O. 234 deg 11 nm 18:55:00Z
P. 15 C / 1513 m
Q. 23 C / 1526 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 0818A RAFAEL OB 11
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 053 / 34 NM 18:40:00Z
RAGGED EYE

[WaveBreaking]

Rafael has a pretty small core with a ton of banding to the E. If you told me this was a loop from August I’d believe you

[lilbump3000]

Very near hurricane strength.


https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[underthwx]

With all the uncertainty with Rafael, it's my wish, that whatever needs to take place in the atmosphere to disrupt and bring this cyclone to its knees, will happen. And we can be done with Rafael.

[underthwx]

The 4 pm NHC update is available. Looks as if the track takes Rafael into Central Louisiana coast?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like Rafael is ahead of the models in terms of intensity, HAFS-A appears closest thus far through the next 48 hours.

[wxman57]

Very good video by Levi Cowen (Tropical Tidbits). He discusses the competing ridges and strong shear north of 25-26N causing decoupling prior to any landfall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h8lbrL5Q88

[xironman]

latest VDM is reporting a ragged eye, with pressure down 4mb from the last pass:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182024
A. 05/18:51:20Z
B. 18.63 deg N 079.22 deg W
C. 850 mb 1345 m
D. 990 mb
E. 015 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN NNE
G. C10
H. 61 kt
I. 051 deg 29 nm 18:41:30Z
J. 121 deg 73 kt
K. 051 deg 34 nm 18:40:00Z
L. 48 kt
M. 236 deg 9 nm 18:54:30Z
N. 348 deg 43 kt
O. 234 deg 11 nm 18:55:00Z
P. 15 C / 1513 m
Q. 23 C / 1526 m
R. 11 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 0818A RAFAEL OB 11
MAX FL WIND 73 KT 053 / 34 NM 18:40:00Z
RAGGED EYE

With finally a core and the environment Rafael should be off to the races.

[underthwx]

Very good video by Levi Cowen (Tropical Tidbits). He discusses the competing ridges and strong shear north of 25-26N causing decoupling prior to any landfall.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2h8lbrL5Q88

Thanks for sharing! The video is encouraging, it seems to me likely that Rafael will eventually meet its demise in a hostile environment, as it tracks into the gulf. Am I correct in assuming that whichever direction the system moves, it will encounter conditions that will not sustain it? That would be welcome news. And I must say that my thoughts are with everyone in the Caymans and Western Cuba, and the Florida Keys, as Rafael draws near.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Starting to get some bigger, deeper convective bursts forming and attempting to wrap around the center. Seems to be following the convective forecast from today’s 06z HWRF. Probably 65-70 kt right now, could be a Cat 2 at landfall tomorrow afternoon.

[underthwx]

Is it accurate to say, that the uncertainties with Rafael, are mostly with its track?, and not so much with its intensity in the coming days?

[sasha_B]

Is it accurate to say, that the uncertainties with Rafael, are mostly with its track?, and not so much with its intensity in the coming days?

There's some uncertainty over near-term intensity (prior to landfall in Cuba), as I understand it. Intensification could be quite rapid, or more moderate, so a range of outcomes are still on the table for ～24 hours from now; we'll see what happens overnight. But there seems to be a fairly strong consensus on conditions in the Gulf being sufficiently adverse to prevent further intensification and to eventually induce weakening, as the NHC's forecast has shown on all advisories so far.

[underthwx]

Is it accurate to say, that the uncertainties with Rafael, are mostly with its track?, and not so much with its intensity in the coming days?

There's some uncertainty over near-term intensity (prior to landfall in Cuba), as I understand it. Intensification could be quite rapid, or more moderate, so a range of outcomes are still on the table for ～24 hours from now; we'll see what happens overnight. But there seems to be a fairly strong consensus on conditions in the Gulf being sufficiently adverse to prevent further intensification and to eventually induce weakening, as the NHC's forecast has shown on all advisories so far.

Thanks for your excellent reply, and again, my thoughts are with those who will experience Rafaels impacts at its predicted stronger intensity, prior to tracking into the Southeast gulf.

[xironman]

Finally some pinks, maybe we will see some intensification

[xironman]

Looks like they coordinated flying over Cuba

[tropicwatch]

Looks like they are in a race

[Travorum]

Looks like they coordinated flying over Cuba

https://i.imgur.com/Ez0h8dU.png

I just saw that, hopefully there will be recon up until landfall unlike with Oscar.

[johngaltfla]

Looks like they coordinated flying over Cuba

Cuba didn't have much choice. They need information also and their power grid is so fragile, they need our weather guys to cover this as much as possible.