ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLLurker32]

My brother and sister-in-law are in Odessa. Newer block home not in a flood zone so he’s shuttering it up and refusing to leave despite having family to stay with more inland.

I hope they don’t end up regretting that decision.

I am in the same boat. Agonizing wether to stay or go.

I have no doubt he’s worried about the house, but once it starts there isn’t much more he can do but wait it out. With family in Marion county I don’t understand why he’s willing to take the risk. Hopefully, the idea of getting his wife and dog further away will change his mind on it.

[cheezyWXguy]

Yucatán radar where the eye looks very impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/2hcJyy6.jpeg

I am seeing signs of an onset of an EWRC there with a small moat. But we might get an eyewall meld instead.

True, but I think we’ll still manage to catch a new peak reading with the next recon flight. This process will take a while and Milton could continue to intensify. Wilma had a fully formed secondary eyewall when it reached its peak.

[eastcoastFL]

His southerly move must be moving him further away from the shear to his north because now thunderstorms are starting to fill in north of center. To this point it has been heavier to the south and south west. He's probably going to continue growing in size over the next two days. Unfortunately... Which really kinda throws a wrench into my plans. I'm on the treasure Coast so I'm not super concerned with wind right now but I can't handle much rain and locally my forecast says there's a potential of 5-10 inches which is more than I think we can handle...

[tropicwatch]

Looking like Milton might be hinting at making that northeast turn a little early. If it continues that could be bad for Tampa.

[HurryKane]

OR ARI?
Accelerated Rapid Intensification

NHC used the actual term, "Explosive Intensification"

This storm is giving me a different kind of explosive intensification.

bless

[snownado]

Miami is not a bad alternative. Should be TS gusts correct?

There's arguably a heightened flash flood risk for SE Florida.

I see no significant risk of flooding in Miami-Dade or Broward if away from the coast. 6-8" for inland areas may pose a temporary nuisance but not particularly threatening, as long as you're not driving around in it

Still though, to my point, would you rather play bingo with the non-zero possibility of seeing double digit rainfall amounts under training rain bands, or go for the sure thing and heading further NW where things will be all clear?

[DunedinNate]

Im in Lake Wales, I have an old cinder block house from the 50s but I just got a new roof and am worried about roof damage or window damage. I honestly feel sick to my stomach not just in fear for my property but my friends and family in Tampa where I grew up. I worry it may not be recognizable in a few days

I grew up in Dunedin, family still lives there and I visit often. Ive felt like throwing up the whole day.

[eastcoastFL]

My brother and sister-in-law are in Odessa. Newer block home not in a flood zone so he’s shuttering it up and refusing to leave despite having family to stay with more inland.

I hope they don’t end up regretting that decision.

I am in the same boat. Agonizing wether to stay or go.

I have no doubt he’s worried about the house, but once it starts there isn’t much more he can do but wait it out. With family in Marion county I don’t understand why he’s willing to take the risk. Hopefully, the idea of getting his wife and dog further away will change his mind on it.

I hear this a lot with storms approaching, people are concerned about their house. You can batten down the hatches as best you can before you leave. But If that roof comes off or a big tree falls on the house there is absolutely nothing you can do as a human in a hurricane. You'll just put yourselves in danger and first responders can not help you.

So please please please people evac if you're in the path of this storm on the west coast. Homes can be repaired and rebuilt, you can't.

[bohai]

Can an expert write a summary of why you shouldnt stay in an older Late 80's or mid 90's mobile home


What exactly would happen say, with Cat-4 winds

There is an alarming amount of people in a Moon Lake New Port Richey Group I frequent who are staying behind and are convinced its nothing. Like 7/10 are staying.

They would be obliterated.

Read what happened to the folks in the Galveston hurricane of 1900. There are reports of skin ripped from their bodies from the debris floating around and the nails protruding from boards etc. Not a pretty sight.

[AutoPenalti]

Florida Atlantic University has cancelled operations starting tomorrow into thursday.

[eastcoastFL]

There's arguably a heightened flash flood risk for SE Florida.

I see no significant risk of flooding in Miami-Dade or Broward if away from the coast. 6-8" for inland areas may pose a temporary nuisance but not particularly threatening, as long as you're not driving around in it

Still though, to my point, would you rather play bingo with the non-zero possibility of seeing double digit rainfall amounts under training rain bands, or go for the sure thing and heading further NW where things will be all clear?

Where will it be clear NW? If I decide to leave I'm probably heading south. The only place I can think of where it will be clear to the NW is Alabama and the panhandle and that's just too far for me.

[aspen]

Yucatán radar where the eye looks very impressive.

https://i.imgur.com/2hcJyy6.jpeg

I am seeing signs of an onset of an EWRC there with a small moat. But we might get an eyewall meld instead.

If the 12z HAFS-A/B are correct, we will get a meld. Hopefully the process holds off until recon (but odds are it won’t).

[skillz305]

To my treasure coast folks…. The right hand turn seems imminent. Please prepare if you haven’t started already.

[CrazyC83]

The PRE event has a 10/10 area. They are essentially getting an Invest right now (although I don't think they would go with 93L out of the potential for confusion, and if SOMEHOW it became a TC or STC, I would honestly let it go to avoid confusion with Milton).

[jasons2k]

If you’re even debating if staying or leaving is the right choice, leave.

[tropicwatch]

I am in the same boat. Agonizing wether to stay or go.

I have no doubt he’s worried about the house, but once it starts there isn’t much more he can do but wait it out. With family in Marion county I don’t understand why he’s willing to take the risk. Hopefully, the idea of getting his wife and dog further away will change his mind on it.

I hear this a lot with storms approaching, people are concerned about their house. You can batten down the hatches as best you can before you leave. But If that roof comes off or a big tree falls on the house there is absolutely nothing you can do as a human in a hurricane. You'll just put yourselves in danger and first responders can not help you.

So please please please people evac if you're in the path of this storm on the west coast. Homes can be repaired and rebuilt, you can't.

I lost seven friends to Hurricane Michael and had to use a chainsaw to get out of my house when it was safe. No fun at all!

[BobHarlem]

Looking like Milton might be hinting at making that northeast turn a little early. If it continues that could be bad for Tampa.

This is the best site for obsessive wobble watching, at least until radar range:

https://zoom.earth/storms/milton-2024/

[snownado]

I see no significant risk of flooding in Miami-Dade or Broward if away from the coast. 6-8" for inland areas may pose a temporary nuisance but not particularly threatening, as long as you're not driving around in it

Still though, to my point, would you rather play bingo with the non-zero possibility of seeing double digit rainfall amounts under training rain bands, or go for the sure thing and heading further NW where things will be all clear?

Where will it be clear NW? If I decide to leave I'm probably heading south. The only place I can think of where it will be clear to the NW is Alabama and the panhandle and that's just too far for me.

Short of a huge shift in the track at this stage, I'd say anywhere along a Valdosta-Tallahassee line and NW shpuld be spared from the more significant impacts.

Hypothetically, if you're in Tampa, that's no further away than driving to Miami.

[tulum07]

Any idea when a TS watch or warning will be posted for coastal Palm Beach County?

[SootyTern]

Recon reports 8nm wide eye with flocks of birds in the eye

WOW...... damn, would THAT be some picture

Its definitely gotta be a ridiculously sad image. Flocks of birds stuck at sea basically waiting for themselves to run out of energy and succumb to the eyewall

Depends what kind of birds they are. Seabirds (like Sooty terns, hence my name here) joyride in hurricanes and get displaced hundreds of miles. This excites local birders who go out and look for weird out-of range birds. Idalia last year brought flamingos out of the Yucatan to Florida and some wandered as far north as Long Island afterwards.

Smaller land birds...don't want to think about it.