ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormgodess]

Geez!

Praying for our neighbors in the Panhandle.

Head for the hills for this one guys, please don't try to ride her out.

[LandoWill]

nhc would never live it down if it didn't go into the big bend at this point. for 3 days big bend they have been calling it

[PavelGaborik10]

IF that convective blast wraps around and closes off that tiny eye we may be in for quite a show tonight.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think this is where the storm starts to RI. I wonder if it will ERI. I think with this structure CAT 5 isnt out if the question. Hard to believe how quickly it reorganized after looking so terrible only a few hours ago.

[ROCK]

She is closing off an eye now and vomited out the dry air she has chewed on the last 6hrs. Should start dropping pressure as the night goes on.

[Orlando]

Some of you may find this link with images informative:

https://www.tropicwx.com/

[Hypercane_Kyle]

nhc would never live it down if it didn't go into the big bend at this point. for 3 days big bend they have been calling it

Seems to me the storm is perfectly on track.

[NDG]

I see that the NHC had no other choice but to move the forecast track a little to the east from Franklin to Wakulla as global models especially the GFS has been persistent of landfall in Taylor County. I think the CTCI and HWFI models is what has been keeping the TVCN consensus to the left of the GFS like it happened with Francine.

[Kingarabian]

At least per Dvorak, this is now a 5.0 or a 5.5 depending on if the B ring holds up or not (constraints will limit this though). Looks like its intensifying again.

[FLLurker32]

nhc would never live it down if it didn't go into the big bend at this point. for 3 days big bend they have been calling it

What data is out there currently to think it won’t be in the big bend? They’ve very specifically, and carefully (rightfully so), been referring to the landfall point as the big bend region. I haven’t seen anything to suggest anything else, have you?

[CrazyC83]

Per the most recent wind probs, Atlanta has a 78% chance of seeing 34 kt winds and less than 1% chance of 50 kt. That's both a scary high probability of TS winds and a remarkable confidence that they won't be higher than low to mid TS force.

Even 34 kt winds are no joke. I get nervous when the wind gusts here hit like 25-30 mph (lots of tall trees around us).

Strongest I've been in are about 65-70 mph gusts (Sandy 2012, living up north) and in a tall building. It felt like the building was shaking violently.

[Zonacane]

She is closing off an eye now and vomited out the dry air she has chewed on the last 6hrs. Should start dropping pressure as the night goes on.

That burst rotating through the Eastern part of the eyewall is going to clear out whatever dry air is left. I wonder if that ongoing burst in the NW eye meats with it and Helene closes off a giant eye

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Helene is a Category 5 hurricane.

[ROCK]

At least per Dvorak, this is now a 5.0 or a 5.5 depending on if the B ring holds up or not (constraints will limit this though). Looks like its intensifying again.

https://i.postimg.cc/RhMC9x1G/Untitled.jpg

Yep…Needs to finish wrapping the intense eye wall all the way around and then its bombs away. RECON left also so we will have to wait some.

[NDG]

My sister lives in Port Richie, west of Hwy 19 about a block from a canal, I told her to move everything on the first floor to the second floor and to get the heck out of there if indeed the 6-10 feet forecasted storm surge comes to fruition.

I lIve south of there in Pinellas County. Everyone here knows how bad flooding is west side of US 19. SHE NEEDS TO LEAVE!

BTW, my sister moved to Port Richie just 9 months ago so she was not there for previous storms, she spent the day moving stuff to second and third floor of the condo unit and helping her daughter move stuff from her house a few blocks away from her which is right on the water at ground level. They are both planning to moving to higher ground first thing tomorrow morning.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Pressure is not part of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Wind is the only criterion.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson

I know it's not, however the Hurricane Hunters could have missed the area that had Category 2 wind speeds. Pressure shows that Helene is strengthening and is close to or is Category 2.

They didn’t miss category 2 winds, those winds simply don’t exist yet. In fact recon data barely justifies cat 1 winds right now, if at all. In time, they’ll catch up

Yeah there is not a 1:1 relationship with pressure and wind. I remember Ike in 2008 had Cat 2 winds and a pressure in the 940s. Same with Alex in 2010. Helene is a very large system, so it makes sense for this imbalance to exist.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Per the most recent wind probs, Atlanta has a 78% chance of seeing 34 kt winds and less than 1% chance of 50 kt. That's both a scary high probability of TS winds and a remarkable confidence that they won't be higher than low to mid TS force.

It's likely to be similar to Opal there, which I think brought gusts of 65-80 mph in some areas.

I was here for Opal...I don't want to see another Opal

[REDHurricane]

This might be the most intimidating cat 1 hurricane I've ever seen... all the bones are there for an enormously strong and destructive monster, and it doesn't appear that there's much in the way of Helene reaching that potential unfortunately for those in the SE US

[REDHurricane]

I would not be surprised if Helene is a Category 5 hurricane.

It's almost getting to the point where I'd be more surprised if Helene doesn't end up as a cat 5...

[ScottNAtlanta]

I've been looking at all of the vortex msgs and something that might be what has caused this problems is that each time it has tried to wrap up its core, the eye has been way small for a storm of this size and it never seems to be able to close off because an "outer" ring forms almost at the same time. This storm is way too large for an eye anywhere from 10-25 miles wide (that's the range thus far)