ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[InfernoFlameCat]

Per the most recent wind probs, Atlanta has a 78% chance of seeing 34 kt winds and less than 1% chance of 50 kt. That's both a scary high probability of TS winds and a remarkable confidence that they won't be higher than low to mid TS force.

It's likely to be similar to Opal there, which I think brought gusts of 65-80 mph in some areas.

I was here for Opal...I don't want to see another Opal

I was only here for Irma. But Irma itself was terrible. Up here just north of ATL we are already flooded and it continues to rain. The flooding threat is my biggest fear right now, but fists of god also are an issue(wind gusts)

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's likely to be similar to Opal there, which I think brought gusts of 65-80 mph in some areas.

I was here for Opal...I don't want to see another Opal

I was only here for Irma. But Irma itself was terrible. Up here just north of ATL we are already flooded and it continues to rain. The flooding threat is my biggest fear right now, but fists of god also are an issue(wind gusts)

Opal was worse than Irma...by far. The wind blew down trees literally all over midtown and downtown. I had to walk to work because it was so bad I could not drive and I was five mins away from the Bell South Tower (as it was known back then)

[CrazyC83]

I know it's not, however the Hurricane Hunters could have missed the area that had Category 2 wind speeds. Pressure shows that Helene is strengthening and is close to or is Category 2.

They didn’t miss category 2 winds, those winds simply don’t exist yet. In fact recon data barely justifies cat 1 winds right now, if at all. In time, they’ll catch up

Yeah there is not a 1:1 relationship with pressure and wind. I remember Ike in 2008 had Cat 2 winds and a pressure in the 940s. Same with Alex in 2010. Helene is a very large system, so it makes sense for this imbalance to exist.

On the flip side, you get unusual stuff the other way. Beryl was a cat 3 with a similar pressure that Helene has now (small size, fast movement and low latitude), and Zeta made landfall with 100 kt winds with a 970 mb pressure (fast movement + small size).

[Poonwalker]

Pressure is not part of the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Wind is the only criterion.

https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson

I know it's not, however the Hurricane Hunters could have missed the area that had Category 2 wind speeds. Pressure shows that Helene is strengthening and is close to or is Category 2.

They didn’t miss category 2 winds, those winds simply don’t exist yet. In fact recon data barely justifies cat 1 winds right now, if at all. In time, they’ll catch up

I think what’s most important isn’t the measured wind speed but the actual wind field and pressure readings. I remember Katrina started out more compact with 175 mile peak winds but went through an eyewall replacement on approach. Wind speed dropped to 120 mph despite a pressure of 920 mb. A lot of people simply thought it was weakening. I remember some residents said they decided to stay when they heard the reduction in winds being reported. What actually happened was the storm simply expanded. Hurricane force winds extended 120 miles. She was huge and damaged a massive area. This storm has that type of impact potential if the pressures drop like the Hafs models have been predicting.

[5t0rmsguy]

Looking at the IR on tropical tidbits and it looks like the eye wall is closing and starting to spin pretty quick with -80c and colder temps... uh oh

[bjackrian]

Per the most recent wind probs, Atlanta has a 78% chance of seeing 34 kt winds and less than 1% chance of 50 kt. That's both a scary high probability of TS winds and a remarkable confidence that they won't be higher than low to mid TS force.

Even 34 kt winds are no joke. I get nervous when the wind gusts here hit like 25-30 mph (lots of tall trees around us).

Strongest I've been in are about 65-70 mph gusts (Sandy 2012, living up north) and in a tall building. It felt like the building was shaking violently.

For sure! I grew up on the east side of the Sierra Nevada near Reno and my house was at the bottom of a canyon off one of the mountains that really funnelled the wind. We routinely got 60+ mph gusts during winter storms and they knocked me completely over as a kid. Even as an adult, I've tripped and fallen when one of those gusts caught me unaware.

[5t0rmsguy]

Some of you may find this link with images informative:

https://www.tropicwx.com/

does this get updated frequently? neat page

[InfernoFlameCat]

People are going to wake up to a monster hurricane I am afraid. This storm is really getting her act together.

[Steve]

I would not be surprised if Helene is a Category 5 hurricane.

It’s not close to that you mean later?

[cheezyWXguy]

People are going to wake up to a monster hurricane I am afraid. This storm is really getting her act together.

Aside from the seriously intense towers going around the core right now, the surrounding bands have become much more circular. The whole thing is improving quickly, RI is underway.

[PavelGaborik10]

Hot towers blowing up all around the inner eye now, it's go time.

[ROCK]

When is RECON? I got no buoy in the area of the eye dammit…

Edit they just took off!!

[Hurrilurker]

What was large dry air moats a few hours ago are closing up fast, almost gone.

[chaser1]

Some of you may find this link with images informative:

https://www.tropicwx.com/

Nice job! A handy-dandy simple quick link. I'm assuming it auto updates?

[NDG]

Big sign of the potential for rapid intensification when even the GFS shows a drop of 27 mb over the next 24 hrs.

[psyclone]

Loop current octane working magic. Helene looks well organized and ready to undergo the rapid intensification phase

[Orlando]

Some of you may find this link with images informative:

https://www.tropicwx.com/

does this get updated frequently? neat page

Yes, it does. I have enjoyed the site for many years, especially during hurricane season.

[Category5Kaiju]

Well I’m going to bed now, but I have a feeling that we’re going to be looking at a menacing storm tomorrow morning. Looks like Helene about to get jacked up with some Loop Current fuel

[Hurrilurker]

The presentation has improved so much in just the last 4 hours, I'm not even going to be shocked if they find sub-960 pressures on the next pass.

[Exalt]

People are going to wake up to a monster hurricane I am afraid. This storm is really getting her act together.

As soon as I saw that satellite loop I immediately thought it was going for cat 5. Hope it doesn't, but that thing looks like it's about to spin.