ATL: BERYL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

[WaveBreaking]

Clearing eye becoming more circular (26 min apart):

[InfernoFlameCat]

https://i.imgur.com/MV6U5PD.png

Wow, as if there is no shear at all now. Eye might clear again. She won’t give in.

[Stratton23]

Frank P it does look like it made a little more of a westward wobble at the last minute, its possible that only a portion of the eyewall actually moves onshore, if thats the case, it definitely wouldnt get as disrupted

[Kazmit]

https://i.imgur.com/MV6U5PD.png

Welcome back Beryl.

[galaxy401]

The official forecast has it remaining a major for at least the next 15 hours, so i dont think the current intensity is any kind of surprise to anyone?

Two days ago, forecats had it at a Category 2 by now. That's why it was more a surprise since it was thought that the shear would weaken Beryl to below Major by now.

[Tailgater33]

These major models have ensembles I assume that each one has different variables, such as a deeper storm, or a storm affected last by shear or dry air etc. Does anyone know for sure which ensembles do you what. Such as ensemble five reacts to a stronger high pressure system over the southern United States

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/bKpn5YC.gif

Looks like the Caymans better be ready, after that we will just have to wait and see but I'm starting to have some bad vibes about Texas.

[tolakram]

[Teban54]

The official forecast has it remaining a major for at least the next 15 hours, so i dont think the current intensity is any kind of surprise to anyone?

Beryl was a 120 kt Cat 4 at the 18z update, and is probably still one (possibly even slightly stronger given recent satellite trends). There's a difference between a 100 kt major and a 120 kt one.

Looking at the NHC forecasts, the first one that extrapolated to an intensity of 120 kt as of 18z was actually the most recent one at 11am EDT. Even the early morning forecast had 115 kt. The earlier ones yesterday were mostly showing Cat 3 at Jamaica.

So yes, Beryl has been stronger than forecast for most of its life, including now. People probably wouldn't have been nearly as surprised if it reached Jamaica as a Cat 3, especially given the expectation of shear ripping it apart.

Even more miraculous than the current intensity is the short-term future intensity forecasts. The hurricane models and NHC both seem to show Beryl getting destroyed in the Western Caribbean and weakening to a Cat 1-2, if not a TS, at its Yucatan landfall. So it's hard to imagine its satellite presentation improving at this very moment. The rapid weakening is still possible, but at the very least, it's less certain than one may expect given what we've seen with the storm so far.

[Tailgater33]

Beryl is a pretty small I would expect the circulation will get disturbed a good bit by Jamaica(sorry mates).

[mpic]

Isn't it hitting Jamaica right now? Looked at the webcams and just looks like a rainy day? Did they get lucky?

[Iceresistance]

HurricaneTrack made this recently

 https://x.com/hurricanetrack/status/1808603625561993380

[tolakram]

AF300 recon in the air.

[hipshot]

Beryl is a pretty small I would expect the circulation will get disturbed a good bit by Jamaica(sorry mates).

From the videos I've seen, it doesn't look too disturbed to me, if anything it may be getting stronger.

[ColdFusion]

4PM NHC update - track seems to have moved slightly south. Hardly noticeable, but definitely no northern shift.

[Aric Dunn]

Beryl is a pretty small I would expect the circulation will get disturbed a good bit by Jamaica(sorry mates).

already past that point.

[Hurrilurker]

You can really see Beryl expanding rapidly on the west side to become more symmetrical again. Not looking good for Caymans and then Mex/Tex.

[tolakram]