ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Orlando]

Some of you may find this link with images informative:

https://www.tropicwx.com/

Nice job! A handy-dandy simple quick link. I'm assuming it auto updates?

Yes. Sometimes, not all of these images appear when storm systems are not active, however there are always enough images to make for an informative site. Hurricane season is especially important to the site.

[Jonny]

Just started raining in Walton County.

[Beef Stew]

I think we're finally approaching the stage where Helene's structure is going to improve at a pace that is almost noticeable on live-time IR, with pressure and winds following in short order.
Most of today was setting up structural framework to support what looks to be potentially explosive RI tonight into tomorrow. Really the only thing I see potentially inhibiting Helene in the immediate future is if the (what now looks to be the dominate) smaller eyewall proves to be unsustainable and collapses due to the storm's large size and competition with the larger, outer eyewall that was prominent earlier. Or potentially due to some totally unforeseen mid layer shear or dry air intrusion, however unlikely that may be.

I wouldn't be surprised to wake up to a bona fide category 4 in the morning at this rate.

[PavelGaborik10]

When is the next recon due to arrive?

[rigbyrigz]

What data is out there currently to think it won’t be in the big bend? They’ve very specifically, and carefully (rightfully so), been referring to the landfall point as the big bend region. I haven’t seen anything to suggest anything else, have you?

For some places like Perry (inland Taylor County) a landfall (per NWS) near 29.5N and 84.5W, as the 11PM discussion shows, followed by almost due North, means 45 mph with gusts to 65 instead of 80-100 gusts to 120 or more. This is west of GFS and others. At 5PM was showing 27.4 and 85.2, trending similarly. They do seem to (sometimes) say northerly "OR" NNE, but they are sort of sticking with north to a place 60 nm or so West of earlier landfall (and Perry.) Not complaining (here in Perry) wish we knew why... slowing down, timing with front, any one???

[Beef Stew]

When is the next recon due to arrive?

They departed from Keesler AFB in Biloxi roughly 30 minutes ago. I'd guess we probably get our first center pass somewhere around 1:00 am CDT, give or take.

[technikal]

Idk, overall structure is improved but she’s still struggling to get that closed eyewall. The past 2 hours of this thread has people claiming it’s almost there but all of its attempts to close have been “false summits” so to speak. Frankly the current sat doesn’t show imminent closing. The longer the better, bc as soon as it fully tightens it’s off to the races (drink)

[NDG]

Latest GFS shows plenty of hurricane force wind gusts for the Tampa Bay area starting in the afternoon through early evening.

[Hurrilurker]

I'm going to say they find 965 mb pressure, but I won't be surprised if it's lower.

[Bocadude85]

What data is out there currently to think it won’t be in the big bend? They’ve very specifically, and carefully (rightfully so), been referring to the landfall point as the big bend region. I haven’t seen anything to suggest anything else, have you?

For some places like Perry (inland Taylor County) a landfall (per NWS) near 29.5N and 84.5W, as the 11PM discussion shows, followed by almost due North, means 45 mph with gusts to 65 instead of 80-100 gusts to 120 or more. This is west of GFS and others. At 5PM was showing 27.4 and 85.2, trending similarly. They do seem to (sometimes) say northerly "OR" NNE, but they are sort of sticking with north to a place 60 nm or so West of earlier landfall (and Perry.) Not complaining (here in Perry) wish we knew why... slowing down, timing with front, any one???

If I were you I’d be preparing for winds in excess of 100mph in Perry, the wind field on the eastern side is quite large

[zhukm29]

[REDHurricane]

Idk, overall structure is improved but she’s still struggling to get that closed eyewall. The past 2 hours of this thread has people claiming it’s almost there but all of its attempts to close have been “false summits” so to speak. Frankly the current sat doesn’t show imminent closing. The longer the better, bc as soon as it fully tightens it’s off to the races (drink)

It's a huge system so it might take up several more hours to build up a fully formed eyewall, but like you said once it does get there all bets are off

[NDG]

https://i.ibb.co/CHLvF3c/goes16-ir-09-L-optimize.gif

Good indication that it has started to strengthen significantly when there are at least a couple of high towers rotating around rapidly.

[Zonacane]

https://i.ibb.co/CHLvF3c/goes16-ir-09-L-optimize.gif

Good indication that it has started to strengthen significantly when there are at least a couple of high towers rotating around rapidly.

About a dozen, give or take, from just counting on satellite. God knows how many are under those overshooting tops

[Kohlecane]

https://i.ibb.co/CHLvF3c/goes16-ir-09-L-optimize.gif

What a feeder band

[ElectricStorm]

My guess is it's going to eventually open a larger eye then the last few attempts where it was a smaller core. Will likely see pressure drops before the wind responds so I'm thinking recon will find winds not a whole lot stronger than the last mission. Pressure perhaps a few mb lower. This will continue until it finally starts to open a large eye and gets close to the NHC forecasted 115kts near landfall (give or take 5kts or so). I could be completely wrong though. But don't be surprised if winds are lagging pressure drops, that's pretty common.

[Poonwalker]

Yeah. It’s almost there. Now NW side has to close fully but there’s adequate moisture in place for that to happen without disruption.

[gailwarning]

I was here for Opal...I don't want to see another Opal

I was only here for Irma. But Irma itself was terrible. Up here just north of ATL we are already flooded and it continues to rain. The flooding threat is my biggest fear right now, but fists of god also are an issue(wind gusts)

Opal was worse than Irma...by far. The wind blew down trees literally all over midtown and downtown. I had to walk to work because it was so bad I could not drive and I was five mins away from the Bell South Tower (as it was known back then)

I am in Towns County, GA just about a mile from the NC border, far eastern part of the state. It has been raining heavily for the most part since early Wed. afternoon. There have already been outages affecting 4,500 customers (which is quite a few for up here). Doesn't bode well for the actual storm. Is there info available for how much rain has fallen so far? I'm no expert on tropical storms but have been hanging around here for quite a few years now. It's appalling how many up here think this is no big deal.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I was only here for Irma. But Irma itself was terrible. Up here just north of ATL we are already flooded and it continues to rain. The flooding threat is my biggest fear right now, but fists of god also are an issue(wind gusts)

Opal was worse than Irma...by far. The wind blew down trees literally all over midtown and downtown. I had to walk to work because it was so bad I could not drive and I was five mins away from the Bell South Tower (as it was known back then)

I am in Towns County, GA just about a mile from the NC border, far eastern part of the state. It has been raining heavily for the most part since early Wed. afternoon. There have already been outages affecting 4,500 customers (which is quite a few for up here). Doesn't bode well for the actual storm. Is there info available for how much rain has fallen so far? I'm no expert on tropical storms but have been hanging around here for quite a few years now. It's appalling how many up here think this is no big deal.

I'm in Midtown Atlanta and I've recorded just shy of 3 inches in my rain gauge since around 2pm.
Recon has made their decent to 10,000 feet. Wont be long now

[Zonacane]

Just took a gulp of dry air again