ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm off to bed...hope this doesn't blow up overnight.

[Hurrilurker]

Recon getting close...still guessing 965.

[AtlanticWind]

Recon flying in

Guess the pressure

Win a prize

[Zonacane]

Recon flying in

Guess the pressure

Win a prize

968

[CrazyC83]

Guessing 958 mb, but the winds not yet catching up...

[AtlanticWind]

963 is my guess

[ElectricStorm]

Just took a gulp of dry air again

From almost 2 hours ago.
 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1839149844536959225


Based on this I'm wondering if that's the larger core trying to emerge. Would need to get rid of the smaller inner core and then the outer eyewall needs to contract before any RI would start I would think

[Beef Stew]

Guessing 966 for this pass

[zhukm29]

I'll guess 965

[Zonacane]

Just took a gulp of dry air again

From almost 2 hours ago.
 https://x.com/MatthewCappucci/status/1839149844536959225


Based on this I'm wondering if that's the larger core trying to emerge. Would need to get rid of the smaller inner core and then the outer eyewall needs to contract before any RI would start I would think

Certainly looks like a much larger eye trying to close out, but this storm is also addicted to dry air, you can see it on WV

[Craters]

upper level WV saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/nssVw2J.gif

What's the link to this product? The ones I use aren't as clear as this one.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

The one time I don't include it. COD viewer has a lot of options for areas to look at and the different IR views.

I'll confirm this. COD is my go-to site for GOES coverage during hurricane season. And the rest of the year, for that matter, too. For what it's worth...

[Teban54]

Just took a gulp of dry air again

Doesn't look like dry air to me IMO, may just be the "outer eyewall" trying to clear out after all. On the 5-min loops you can seemingly see dual rotating hot towers around the outer eyewall.

[Zonacane]

Just took a gulp of dry air again

Doesn't look like dry air to me IMO, may just be the "outer eyewall" trying to clear out after all. On the 5-min loops you can seemingly see dual rotating hot towers around the outer eyewall.

No, there is a painfully large dry slot on water vapor and visible on the Eastern portion of the CDO. More than one actually.

[ConvergenceZone]

Just took a gulp of dry air again

Doesn't look like dry air to me IMO, may just be the "outer eyewall" trying to clear out after all. On the 5-min loops you can seemingly see dual rotating hot towers around the outer eyewall.

No, there is a painfully large dry slot on water vapor and visible on the Eastern portion of the CDO. More than one actually.

All that might mean is that it might be a Cat 3 upon landfall and not a Cat 4. But even if true a Cat 3 of this size is going to still do MASSIVE damage.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just took a gulp of dry air again

Doesn't look like dry air to me IMO, may just be the "outer eyewall" trying to clear out after all. On the 5-min loops you can seemingly see dual rotating hot towers around the outer eyewall.

No, there is a painfully large dry slot on water vapor and visible on the Eastern portion of the CDO. More than one actually.

The core appears to have "walled off" the dry air with the latest hot towers though. This is the most symmetrical is has looked since before the Yucatan brush.

[wx98]

Doesn’t look like much in the way of pressure falls just yet.

[ElectricStorm]

970 extrap. Hardly dropped at all

[Zonacane]

Recon flying in

Guess the pressure

Win a prize

968

Man I almost went with 969. This hurricane is getting smothered in dry air. You're not supposed to get outflow boundaries off your eyewall's convection.

[AxaltaRacing24]

970 extrap. Hardly dropped at all

FWIW, the hurricane models all showed stable, or rising, pressure through the evening and early night. They did not start showing RI until between 06-09z. So we should start seeing pressures drop sometime within the next hour or so. It's current structure evolution also supports this as well.

[Zonacane]

May it continue to choke