ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AerospaceEng]

Milton is now in the top 10 strongest ever in the Atlantic basin for both pressure and wind speed. WOW.

[cheezyWXguy]

Could this genuinely not undergo an EWRC for the rest of the day?

I don’t think that’s likely. It’s probably in its initial stages right now, and the accelerated contraction of the eye that’s occurring suggests the outer eye wall is going to start competing with the inner one soon. Will recon get there in time to measure peak intensity? I still think yes, or very close to peak, but it is a race against time.

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/rKqOjc6.png
Insane

The craziest eyewall since Dorian, also a complete lack of an outer eyewall forming.

Just reading off the pixel values of the eyewall, it's the strongest ever in the Atlantic, surpassing previous record holder Wilma.

[Travorum]

NHC discussion on the potential ERC:

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and
very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall.

[CrazyC83]

We will know in a couple hours the true intensity. Could this be below 900 mb? We shall see.

[weathernet]

Pinellas County finally under mandatory evacuation for A B and C zones... over 500000
people expected to evacuate.
Tim

[ElectricStorm]

NHC mentions a most and partial outer eyewall in the discussion so it'll be close if recon can get there in time or not. Hopefully the first pass is SE quad since in theory that should be the strongest

[TallyTracker]

The band that will become the future eyewall appears to be forming, but I don’t think it’s impacting the core yet. The hurricane hunters may get one good pass before the weakening begins.

[psyclone]

We will know in a couple hours the true intensity. Could this be below 900 mb? We shall see.

Good chance we miss the peak by not having a plane in there now

[CrazyC83]

We will know in a couple hours the true intensity. Could this be below 900 mb? We shall see.

Good chance we miss the peak by not having a plane in there now

If that is the case, then it would be extrapolation and estimating to the peak which would likely be at about 2100Z.

[cycloneye]

Wow on the last sentence.

Regardless, the
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record
for west-central Florida.

[Kingarabian]

Thin CDG ring around the eye now. Need this ring to get thicker or the eye to warm near +15-20C to get a T8.0.

[WaveBreaking]

This current presentation is probably very similar to what the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane would’ve looked like. Small, compact, and with an extremely tight RMW and pressure gradient. Milton very well could’ve been (and may still be) a sub 900 mb, 185+ mph system. Not to detract from the disaster that this storm can impart, but from a meteorological perspective, take a minute to admire the satellite presentation of this anomalous storm- we may not see something like it in the Atlantic again for a long time.

Yeah. It’s impressive just how perfect it looks. Out of all of the upper-echelon hurricanes in the Atlantic, this is probably the most picturesque one imo.

[Pelicane]

Peak surge values for the Tampa Bay area went up. Now projected at 10-15 feet per this latest advisory.

[dhweather]

If you are in Florida trying to decide to ride it out or evacuate, I'll make this simple for you - evacuate if you can.

Even if you don't get flooded or suffer significant wind damage, odds are you will be without power for an extended time. The supply chain is going to be significantly disrupted, making it hard to get food and supplies into the impacted areas. There is tremendous potential for significant infrastructure damage to be caused, roads, bridges, electricity, water, sewer. So yes, take it from this Katrina evacuee - best decision I could have made.

[aspen]

We will know in a couple hours the true intensity. Could this be below 900 mb? We shall see.

Good chance we miss the peak by not having a plane in there now

If I had a nickel for every storm where recon missed its peak by mere hours, I’d have quite a lot of nickels lol.

Didn’t someone say 3-hour recon coverage starts tomorrow? If Milton has a quick EWRC and a secondary peak tomorrow like the HAFS models forecast, it should have better recon coverage for it.

[bunkhouse]

NOAA42 is airborne. Godspeed, Kermit and crew.

I saw it when you posted this but I don’t see it on the flight radar now???

[Chemmers]

It keeps getting more and more -90c around the core, so I think it not bottom out yet, think it might get to 890s maybe?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[kronotsky]

I often think you all are a little too anxious about the plane arriving in time! I'm optimistic that we'll have a plane in at peak intensity, just like we did with Beryl.