ATL: HELENE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormlover70]

East coast central Florida here. Just got wind of this system being alive. Watching cautiously cuz it seems east of guidance as of now IMO.

Hopefully it goes east and out to sea but not likely. The east coast is off the hook on this one. Hopefully Tampas luck has not run out.

[Subtrop]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).

[jlauderdal]

East coast central Florida here. Just got wind of this system being alive. Watching cautiously cuz it seems east of guidance as of now IMO.

Hopefully it goes east and out to sea but not likely. The east coast is off the hook on this one. Hopefully Tampas luck has not run out.

The east coast of Florida will be getting major effects, anyone north and east, depends on location but the effects of a major hurricane go far and wide.

[SouthFLTropics]

Based on current visible satellite, I would put the center at 17.3N and 80.1W.

[cycloneye]

Yes, plane has departed and is on route to PTC Nine.

[ROCK]

Based on current visible satellite, I would put the center at 17.3N and 80.1W.

thats where I have it..

[Kazmit]

Any intensity estimates for the NHC's first advisory? I'll go with 80 kts.

[Steve]

Any intensity estimates for the NHC's first advisory? I'll go with 80 kts.

80 or 85 I think. That's where our private forecasters are starting.

[Blown Away]

95 knots into Steinhatchee.

[Coolcruiseman]

The east coast of Florida will be getting major effects, anyone north and east, depends on location but the effects of a major hurricane go far and wide.

Watching close from Melbourne for this reason.

[caneman]

Cedar Key 115

[La Sirena]

Isn’t this a lot like Hurricane Michael? Originated as a CAG as well.

Indeed.

In fact, given the potential location of impact and the projected strength as well, Michael is probably our best analog, unfortunately.

Yeah, we went through Hurricane Michael 86 miles inland. I remember it being downplayed at first. We were prepared as it wasn’t our first hurricane rodeo. A lot weren’t prepared in our area. I agree that he would be the analog.

[Emmett_Brown]

The east coast of Florida will be getting major effects, anyone north and east, depends on location but the effects of a major hurricane go far and wide.

Watching close from Melbourne for this reason.

It will be interesting to see how large the wind fields is. I'm in Sarasota, and Idalia passed not too far offshore as a major, and it was a complete non event here.

[Spacecoast]

The east coast of Florida will be getting major effects, anyone north and east, depends on location but the effects of a major hurricane go far and wide.

Watching close from Melbourne for this reason.

From NWS Melbourne:
There is a high chance for tropical development in the northwest
Caribbean in the next 48 hours. It is too early to determine
specific impacts this may bring to East Central Florida. However,
shower and lightning storm chances look to increase Wednesday
into the weekend and there is a growing concern for heavy
rainfall. Other hazards such as strong winds and tornadoes may
also come into play. Residents and visitors should continue to
monitor the forecast and check back for the latest updates.

[TallyTracker]

IMO Cayman going to get some 97L/PTC TS winds…

Agreed... I would expect TS Warnings to go up in the Cayman Islands on the first advisory.

I would expect possibly a TS Watch on the Keys too and possibly part of SW FL. If it heads in that direction, conditions will start deteriorating in about 48 hours.

[La Sirena]

Isn’t this a lot like Hurricane Michael? Originated as a CAG as well.

Most CAG systems do not become powerful hurricanes. The majority are on the weaker side. Also, Michael had a more convoluted genesis process than JUST the CAG.

Michael had a complex origin and a prolonged genesis process. A large area of disturbed
weather formed over the central and western Caribbean Sea and absorbed the remains of
Tropical Storm Kirk on 1–2 October. A convective burst on 2 October, possibly associated with
a tropical wave moving into the region, led to the formation of a small-scale surface low southwest
of Jamaica on 3 October, and this system moved west-southwestward into northeastern
Honduras the next day. By 5 October, this low became embedded within a large cyclonic gyre
over Central America, with a vorticity center to the southwest over the extreme eastern Pacific
Ocean. On 6 October, the Pacific vorticity moved inland over Central America and became
absorbed into the larger gyre, whose mean center re-formed over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf

There were numerous moving parts involved in Michael, including the CAG, the remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk, and an additional tropical wave.

Just because both Michael and 97 have CAG origins doesn't mean this automatically will become a major. That being said, conditions do look generally favorable, so internal factors such as rate (and location) of consolidation and pressure gradient will likely determine its ceiling.

I understand that they’re definitely not the same and that every storm and it’s condition and factors are different. Just remembering my own experience with Michael. So many unknowns and a short time for decision making create a mess, especially for those who don’t prepare because they’re unaware or taking it lightly. Never take a storm for granted.

[Hugo1989]

Watching this closely from Tampa. Ian was supposed to hit Tampa and it made landfall in Ft. Meyers. The consensus on it says Big Bend area so let see if ends up hitting more south.

[Pipelines182]

A lot of shear just north of the center seen on visible, when is that supposed to drop?

[Steve]

A lot of shear just north of the center seen on visible, when is that supposed to drop?

Look at it on water vapor. It's an upper feature that's moving onto the Yucatan. When that moves sufficiently far away, the pattern will reverse. Also as it lifts north it will get out of the way of John's outflow as well.

[Pasmorade]

A lot of shear just north of the center seen on visible, when is that supposed to drop?

This shear map reveals that the tongue of shear you're talking about doesn't extend into the Gulf, meaning it'll likely drop soon.